COVID Data Thread

Healdplace said:
PS: Seems they have not updated the days backward only jumped by the full total in one go!
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For my area (on cases) they have adjusted all the days going back to at least November (didn't go back any further), so at least the data is still consistent, but like I said last night case data is probably rubbish anyway with the new or old system, because many people are no longer recording tests, positive or negative, unless you have to have a PCR, and there is no compulsion to have a PCR test now unless you have symptoms, and/or go to hospital or work in one (as far as I can tell).
 
Yes, I found a way to access yesterdays GM case numbers. I think I posted it somewhere. Stockprt actually had more cases than Manchester yesterday, 263 v 246, But 263 was the lowest high score in GM in ages so it seemed unlikely. So I am not really treating those numbers with much confidence tbh.

Today's numbers though are well up.Manchester on 709. Stockport 430. So not confident the numbers on Gov UK for yesterday are real.

They do caution not to take case numbers too seriously over the next week as the numbers readjust I presume.

It may well be next Wednesday before we have a clear sight of where things are going.

The cases jump up today was clearly not a real one day jump any more than the giant regional nubers were yesterday or the massve Pop Score rises taking most of GM over 30K in one go were.

In fact as of today only Bolton and Stockport are left NOT over 30K in Greater Manchester. Oldham slipped over today on a Pop of 30,008.

Salford is still top and they entered the32K club today on 32.,032.

Bolton is still lowest scorer and gained on Stockport again. Though Oldham is further away from Stockport than it was before the readjustment (would have caught them today without the readjusted cases) but will still likely take over second spot in the next week or two as it is only 467 behind Stockport even now and Stockport was up 146 today and Oldham just 124. So gained 22 back.

But I am not going to post lots of tables now - maybe not ever again. But certainly they are going to be misleading until this sorts itsef out.

The hospital numbers matter most now. Let us hope nobody finds a way to redefine patients as anyone who passes within 100 yards of the car park or something.
 
WALES DATA

10 deaths - was 4 last week

1870 cases - was 2707 last week

20.1% positivity - was 22.5% last week

794 patients - wa 786 last week

13 Ventilated - waa 19 last week

THE FINAL HOME NATIONS COUNTRY AFTER ENGLAND, SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN IRELAND TO NOW BE AT THE LOWEST NUMBER OF COVID PATIENTS ON VENTILATORS SINCE JULY 2021.

A VERY TELLING DAY ON HOW LESS DEADLY OMICRON IS RIGHT NOW
 
SCOTLAND DATA

Data Glitch means no death numbers available today

Reality glitch means no case numbers that make sense available either

But 3320 / 4906 V 3467 / 4946 last week are what is posted

= ??? today but WAS 4615 last week posted on Gov UK - so maybe a tad lower guesstimating but I would not bet on it.

1116 patients - was 1177 yesterday & 1389 last week

28 ventilated icu - waa 29 yesterday & 32 last week

CARE HOMES WITH COVID OUTBREAKS THIS WEEK 218 (21%) - WAS 262 (25%) LAST WEEK & 287 (27%) WEEK BEFORE
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

5 deaths - was 9 last week

4769 cases - was 4382 last week

28,293 CASES OVER PAST 7 DAYS - WAS 28,366 YESTERDAY & 31,233 LAST WEEK

175 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 179 YESTERDAY & 209 LAST WEEK

357 patients - was 376 yesterday & 391 last week

10 ventilated - was 13 yesterday & 17 last week

THIS IS THE LOWEST ON VENTILATORS HERE SINCE 23 JULY

EVERY UK NATION NOW LOWEST ON VENTILATORS SINCE LAST JULY
 
England hospital deaths running late again - the changes to numbers recorded now have created these delays.
 
ZOE APP DATA TODAY SHOWING THE GRAPH NOW RISING STILL BUT NOT QUITE AS STEEPLY AS IT WAS PRE THE BOTTOMING OUT POINT. THOUGH NOT FAR BEHIND IT.

THIS IS MORE USEFUL THAN THE UK GOV NUMBERS AS NO CHANGES TO COUNTING HAVE BEEN MADE HERE UNLIKE THE UK SCOREBOARD THIS WEEK

1643813717877.png
 
ZOE APP NUMBERS


Predicted cases 195,069 - UP 3563 from yesterday's 191,506

The previous day's rises were 3837, 5064 & 6167

So some signs there the rise might be slowing.


Ongoing synptomatic cases today 2,330,211 - UP by 38,488 in day - previous daily rise was 33,692

V last week a rise of 132,242 - the weekly rise yesterday was 78,632 - which is going up quite steeply - as it will do since these will take a week to show change of track - the daily change will become clear earlier
 
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ZOE NUMBERS NORTH WEST

These are more reliable now than Gov UK as they are consistent with last week - no structural changes to how they are worked out like they are in Gov UK. So will be a good guide to trends right now. Until a week has passed and Gov UK data is at least the same method week to week,

The highest number I could find was in Stockton on Tees with 76,515

Nowhere in the NW is now near to that. Most are going down.

Liverpool has fallen 10 K in past week or so to 37,522 & Wirral similarly down to 35,919

St Helens is falling but remains one of the worst I could find in the region (had a lot of deaths recently too) on 51,901

Preston is not far behind on 49,243 and going up. Chorley though has flattened off on 45,378.

Cheshire West has been falling slowly but steadily now on 31,661 & Cheshire East has spent a week in more or less the same spot but higher than their neighbour - today on 43,463


GREATER MANCHESTER

1: SALFORD - Has taken back top spot falling 20K in two weeks to 22,088

2: OLDHAM - was top and nearly went below 10K but has started rising more and more (3600 today) now on 24,999

3: TAMESIDE - falling well now - down 20K in ten days on 27,806

4: STOCKPORT - also falling slowly and steadily for past 5 days on 33,877

5: ROCHDALE - edging up but mstly flat around 39K all week on 39,327

6: BURY - falling a few hundred a day but track is down on 40,145

7: WIGAN - fallen 20 K in two weeks on 44,195

8: TRAFFORD - slow but steady falls from 52K on 45,980

9: BOLTON - has been within 2K for a week but inching up today on 48,301

10: MANCHESTER - has been within 2K for two weeks and this is at least the lowest highest number in GM for weeks -on 51,811
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

205 with 42 North West

Was 214 with 33 NW last week & 199 with 25 NW two weeks ago

Flattish but just edging down is the key - and the weekly cases are showing the same pattern at 5 days.
5 of the 6 days are lower than last week so far and it looks like the fall will be small vut around 70 on last week to about 900 from 976 and 983 the two previous weekly totals.

Seems as if deaths have peaked after all add ons at 174 on 11 JAN - but 22 JAN on 171 might just top it eventually


By region:

East 20, London 23, Midlands 47, NE & Yorkshire 40, North West 42, South East 17, South West 16

Most by trust in NW

NW trusts:

11 in East Lancashire, 6 in Liverpool, 5 in Pennine Acute, 4 each in Stockport & Wirral, 3 each in Warrington & Wigan, 2 in Southport AND 1 each in Blackpool, Bolton, Mid Cheshire & Salford

By Age:

40 - 59 (15), 60 - 79 (66), 80 PLUS (124)
 
534 deaths - not a clue where they come from. Way up on the England hospital number as you see above.

519 OF THESE ARE IN ENGLAND - UP FROM 185 YESTERDAY & 300 LAST WEEK - I VERY MUCH DOUBT THIS IS REFLECTIVE OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN OVER REACHI(NG ON REDEFINITIONS WHICH WILL JUST CONFUSE EVERYBODY

Though yesterdays did look suspiciously low V the England hospital number then.

88,085 cases - THOUGH there is no data at all from Scotland today.But it would only have been 3000 - 4000 on top of that based on what we know. This is from the other 3 nations.

England only 81.446

THIS IS DOWN FROM 103,353 YESTERDAY _ THOUGH THAT WAS A BIG CATCH UP NUMBER I IMAGINE

MORE IMPORTANTLY IT IS DOWN FROM 81,720 ON MONDAY - PRE THE CHANGES - AND FROM 90,857 LAST WEDNESDAY

They have really screwed up left right and centre by trying to do too much at once in past two weeks imo and I think they know it by now as they are confusing themselves let alone anyone else. And data is missing every day somewhere now.

They should have done all these readjustmets when cases were all but over and lower in Spring/Summr. Trying to do it in mid winter was crackers.
 
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The media will report that 534 deaths as a huge jump and the most in a year.

But it is surely nothing like it looks given the known England hospital deaths are under half that number of 519 in England. Hard to believe there were more out of hospital than in today.
 
Healdplace said:
The media will report that 534 deaths as a huge jump and the most in a year.

But it is surely nothing like it looks given the known England hospital deaths are under half that number of 519 in England. Hard to believe there were more out of hospital than in today.
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Yesterday's data included a large historical correction to include reinfections in the new UKHSA definition of a covid death. They added over 1000 deaths going all the way back to early 2020. As a side effect they also seemed to under-report recent deaths and that caught up today.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Yesterday's data included a large historical correction to include reinfections in the new UKHSA definition of a covid death. They added over 1000 deaths going all the way back to early 2020. As a side effect they also seemed to under-report recent deaths and that caught up today.
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You have to add in deaths coming from reinfection , they are still covid realted or caused by deaths , i have had delta and presume omicron , plenty have
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Yesterday's data included a large historical correction to include reinfections in the new UKHSA definition of a covid death. They added over 1000 deaths going all the way back to early 2020. As a side effect they also seemed to under-report recent deaths and that caught up today.
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Yes, that is what was happening but they forgot to explain that and so it got reported straight off the web site by the media as a huge rise in numbers when it really wasn't. That was all I was arguing.

They should have made clear to reporters that deaths had not suddenly doubled. They havent. They are actually inching downward. But the wrong story was created by the way they have changed this method and missed some yesterday as a result and added them today. But the press are not going to easily know that.
 
kaz7 said:
You have to add in deaths coming from reinfection , they are still covid realted or caused by deaths , i have had delta and presume omicron , plenty have
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I agree that there is nothing wrong with adding them - it is just that it has been a huge upheavel and around the peak of a wave was perhaps not a wise time to do that as it has made the data so confusing it has taken the ones creating it time to adjust and will have confused most journalists who just read the numbers and go from one day to the next.
 
The large increase in deaths today is partly down to a 'change in metric' with government data.

Earlier this week an additional 588,114 cases were added to the Government dashboard earlier this week due to the inclusion of reinfections which had previously not been part of the tally.

The government has now also updated the deaths metric to match this.

It means that deaths by date of death have today been revised back to the beginning of the pandemic

The Sun
 
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