COVID Data Thread

Everyone in GM today had a good day with the possible exceptions of Bury and Stockport. With Pop scores over 30. The others were very low. Several under 20. Not seen any of those in weeks.

Bury and Stockport were both up week to week everyone else were down

Manchester has 124 cases (down from 168 last week) - the lowest high score in GM in months.

Stockport on 107 the only other one in three figures (up from 99 last week). Highest Pop Score in GM again today. And is highest overall now too.

Other scores:- Salford 78, Wigan 75, Bury 66, Trafford 65, Tameside 54, Bolton 48, Oldham 44, Rochdake 38

Many lowest scores in months here. Even Stockport's 107 would have been here last weekend. Putting it in context.
 
GM total is 699 - lowest of 2022.

Down 144 on yesterday & by 244 from 943 last Sunday

North West total 2238 - was 4253 yesterday -

So GM only falls by 144 of that huge drop of 2015. So most of the big falls in the NW today were elsewhere.

Last Sunday NW was 2657 - so a weekly fall of 419.

So the GM fall week to week of 244 is a much higher split of the NW fall than day to day is today.

Which is always the best way with falls.

To put the NW 2238 total in context here are the other England regions HIghest to Lowest


South East 4686

London 3382

East 3085

South West 2918

N O R T H W E S T 2238

West Midlands 2167

East Midlands 2133

Yorkshire 2006

North East 889

THIS IS THE FIRST SUB 1000 SCORE BY ANY REGION SINCE LAST AUTUMN
 
WALES DATA

THIS IS ONLY FOR FRIDAY LAST WEEK AND HERE V THE DATA FOR THAT DATE A WEEK LAST FRIDAY

TOMORROW WILL BE FOR THREE DAYS COMBINED - SAT, SUN & TODAY

1 death - was 1 last week

1114 cases - was 1495 week before

578 (Thursday - latest number) - was 671 last week

11 ventilated (as above) - was 14 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND

Deaths were up slightly over first 2 days of weekend but week to week still down and today was the best Monday in months. Tomorrow's catch up number will tell us where we really are I expect.


SATURDAY:-

129 with 22 North West

Was 118 with 14 NW last week & 134 with 25 NW the week before


By Region:- East 5, London 19, Midlands 29, NE & Yorkshire 33, North West 22, South East 16. South West 5

Most by Trust:- 12 in Mid Yorkshire

NW Trusts: - 8 in Blackpool, 2 each in Chester, Nth Lancashire, Mid Cheshire, St Helens & Warrington AND 1 each in Bolton, East Cheshire, Pennine Acute & Wigan

By Age:- 20 - 39 (1), 40 - 59 (7), 60 - 79 (49), 80 PLUS (72)



SUNDAY:-

32 with 6 North West

Was 17 with 1 NW last week & 24 with 10 NW the week before


By Region:- East 9, North West 6, South East 15, South West 2

Most by Trust:- 4 each in Dartford & Maidstone

NW Trusts: - 3 in Liverpool, 2 in Tameside & 1 in Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale)

By Age:- 0 - 19 (1), 40 - 59 (1), 60 - 79 (10), 80 PLUS (20)


MONDAY:-

1 with 0 North West

Was 10 with 3 NW last week & 24 with 4 NW the week before


By Region:- East 1

Most by Trust:- 1 in Great Yarmouth



By Age:- 80 PLUS (1)

THIS WAS THE LOWEST TOTAL IN ENGLAND HOSPITALS IN MONTHS.

MONDAY IS ALWAYS THE LOWEST DUE TO LACK OF SUNDAY REGISTRATION AND SO TUESDAY ALWAYS THE HIGHEST AS IT ADDS ON THESE AS EXTRA CATCH UP - BUT EVEN SO THIS IS A BIG DROP AFTER WHAT WAS A RISE OVER THE EARLIER WEEKEND AS YOU SEE BELOW



TOTAL FOR THE WEEKEND 162 WITH 28 NORTH WEST

LAST WEEK 145 WITH 18 NORTH WEST & WEEK BEFORE 182 WITH 50 NORTH WEST


WHY TOMORROWS CATCH UP NUMBERS MAY TELL US THE TRUE DIRECTION OF THE NUMBERS



Here are the numbers at five days for the first 4 days of the new week - as you will see they are just about still down overall - though one is actually higher and overall the total fall is by a lot less than it was last week and exatly the same as two weeks ago - falling 21 V 117 -

But 9 of the last 10 5 day totals are below 100 and the 10th was exactly 100.



Numbers As follows (5 day totals 13 - 16 FEB):-

92 - 85 - 96 - 77

V 111 - 82 - 100 - 78 (last week)

V 113 - 139 - 119 - 117

V 130 - 147 - 123 - 119

(In the previous weeks)

That 77 on 16 Feb is the lowest five day total in 2022.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

5307 cases - was 5118 last week

24.3% positivity - was 20.7% last week

1051 patients - was 960 last report Friday & 884 last week

13 ventilted icu - was 10 Friday & 18 last week


Looks like patient numbers are sadly heading back up in Scotland following its high Zoe case numbers over the past week or two where it als has climbed from best to almost worst UK region.

So far North West has gone in the opposite direction.

Anyone have a theory as to why?
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

4 deaths - was 2 last week

2235 cases - was 2465 last week

17,176 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 18,162 ON LAST REPORT FRIDAY & 21,018 LAST WEEK

174 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 172 ON LAST REPORT FRIDAY & 171 LAST WEEK

443 patients - was 437 last week

7 ventilted - was 6 last week

THE CARE HOME OUTBREAKS EDGING UP AGAIN AND AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW THE OVER 80s ARE STILL RISING ALMOST DAILY DESPITE THE WEEKLY CASES FALLING. THESE ARE PROBABLY CONNECTED AND ARE SEEING DEATHS RISE TOO.

2.4% NOW OVER 80 TESTING POSITIVE - IT WAS UNDER 1% TWO MONTHS AGO AND TRACKING UP SLOWLY

13.3% NOW OVER 60 ALSO - THIS IS GOING UP EVEN MORE AND WAS 9% JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO AND JUST OVER 6% TWO OR THREE MONTHS AGO.

AS YOU SEE THE MAIN REASON IS THAT THE UNDER 19s HAVE FALLEN A LOT FROM BEING 44% PRE CHRISTMAS TO NOW JUST 21.8% - LESS THAN HALF



1645456034716.png
 
15 all settings deaths - was 35 last week

England 10 - was 23 last week



38,409 cases - was 41,648 last week

England 29,753 - up from 23,831 yesterday - down from 31, 943 last week

The falls have flattened off a bit now.
 
205 all settings deaths - was 234 last week

England only 170 - was 214 last week



41,130 cases - was 46,186 last week

England only 30,080 - up 327 on yesterday - was 36,471 last week - that was up 4528 on the day before
 
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I am publishing less and less as the importance is fading and Gov UK also has announced today that from this week most data will not be updated over the weekend - just Monday to Friday - and three days data will be added as one on Mondays not separated out.

We are steadily heading toward the point where these threads are no longer required.
 
England Hospital Numbers

Happily the trend of Monday rise, Tuesday fall continues

Admissions (Sunday)

These WERE high as we saw from the patient rise that day (admissions always posted 48 hours later than the rest of the data)

But were still under 1000 for 4th straight day.

971 V 1029 previous week & 1211 week before then.

North West - again as its patients rise suggested - was up most on 149 V 126 last week & 155 week before - this put NW ahead of London and Yorkshire on admissions for the first time in a while.


Patients (today)

8948 - falls below 9K for first time in 8 weeks (since just before Christmas when Omicron took off).

That is a fall on yesterday of 281 from 9229 V last week 10,019 - which saw a fall of 254.

East down 6 to 912, London UP 10 to 1809, Midlands down 32 to 1676, NE & Yorkshire down 18 to 1398 ,

South East down the most - 127 - to 1141, South West down 45 to 697


AND North West down 63 to 1315 (V 1487 last Tuesday)



Ventilators (today)

284 - down 8 V 323 last week when the fell by 32 on the day

East down 2 to 32, London UP 3 to 101, Midlands down 4 to 34, NE & Yorkshire down 2 to 42,

South East down 3 to 21 , South West stays at 16


AND North West stays at 38 (V 40 last Tuesday)
 
Healdplace said:
SCOTLAND DATA

0 deaths - was 0 last week

5307 cases - was 5118 last week

24.3% positivity - was 20.7% last week

1051 patients - was 960 last report Friday & 884 last week

13 ventilted icu - was 10 Friday & 18 last week


Looks like patient numbers are sadly heading back up in Scotland following its high Zoe case numbers over the past week or two where it als has climbed from best to almost worst UK region.

So far North West has gone in the opposite direction.

Anyone have a theory as to why?
Click to expand...
In Scotland it appears that over the last couple of weeks cases have been falling in the under 25's and increasing in the over 45's which may be why hospital cases are rising whilst the overall number of cases has been fairly level.
 
Cassandra said:
In Scotland it appears that over the last couple of weeks cases have been falling in the under 25's and increasing in the over 45's which may be why hospital cases are rising whilst the overall number of cases has been fairly level.
Click to expand...
Thank you - much the same is happening in Northern Ireland if you follw my reports here over the past week or so. I have been posting the rather steady increase in the split over recent weeks which has gone from 44% school age V 6% over 60 to less than half the school age numbers now and over double the over 60s now. But the over 60s are still smallish numbers in total.

However, the biggest rise in Northern Ireland is in the middle ages 20 - 59. Notably at the higher end of that.

Possibly these are the age groups most opening up as we get back to normal. So more prone to catching it.

Hospital numbers in Scotland and N Ireland are rising a bit BUT crucially ventilated icu are staying very low.
 
The above is based on a few day old data as always.But is in effect the POP scores that I refer to so often when I used to post lots of data here daily for the ten GM boroughs if you recall - the only difference being they use several day old data to be precisely accurate given how the cases come in over several days from testing labs and I update them day to day as they go. Though that impact is less now than it used to be.

But they are often much the same just the ones I post a little more quick at seeing changing trends and where a problem might be brewing before it has alreadybrewed,

I willtonight post the GM numbers one more time. It will likely not be very different from the above (as is not the one from last night as I have kept that up to date but just not posted - but it will be from today not last weekend.

Stockport - as I have mentioned for weeks in here when I was posting the data - has been the biggest issue in GM throughout Omicron and it is a very interesting question to wonder why. They have the best vaccination numbers in GM easily and have since day one and DID pre Omicron have the best cummultive Pop Score across the entire pandemic. Thes two going hand in hand making sense.

But Omicron changed that too and Bolton took the lead and in the next couple of days Oldham will ovettake Stockport and be the one chasing Bolton - though both Oldham and Stockport are well behind Bolton and unlikely to catch it unless things change a lot.

Recall that Bolton was the first place in the UK to have the previous variant and was the national focus of the Summer wave. It DID go wild with Omicro like the rest of GM but it fell moee quickly and has gone from worst in the 10 boroughs under the last variant to being easily the best under Omicron.

Though in the past week Oldhm has suddenly got muc better from higher levels and is catching up as you see Oldham & Bolton are swapping places as top of the weekly Pop Score chart - but Bolton is well ahead of Oldham on the overall numbers across the entire pandemic. Indeed Oldham is still JUST behind Stockport on those.

Stockport having had the best numbers up until Omicron must play the same way and involve potential levels of infection by new variants I would imagine.

I also suspect the high school age population was a factor. There is a lot in Stockport and their lead in being immunised mattered less as most were unvaccinated. Hence the sudden rise that they are only alowly getting under control.

People kept posting things like - who cares about Stockprt being some numbers ahead or behind X, Y or Z.

So I stopped doing it as they obviously did not understand the reasoning - ut as you see it is a key guide to the dynamics of how outbreaks are growing and spreading and why places flare or d not flare as cases ebb and flow.
 
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Stockport last night almost had more cases than Manchester (136 - up week to week from 123) V (in Manchester) 168 - down from 229 last week.

Every other GM borough was under 100, Indeed Salford on just 82 was the next highest. Rochdale on 39 the lowest

GM as a whole right now has flattened in total case numbers per day but is still down week to week - last night 851 V 1088 last Monday. GM has been under 1000 a day for 5 straight days now. After at the heght of Omicron being over 12,000!

Preston actually has the worst numbers in the UK as of last night on Zoe - a gigantic Zoe score of 155,796. I have never seen one anywhere higher.

By comparison Manchester is the worst in GM (and rising) on 44,534.

Stockport on Zoe has fallen like a brick in recent weeks but now stalled as have most of GM (a few others like Manchester are rising in past few days since we have opened up)

Stockport is 21,565 on Zoe right now. Only Bolton, Oldham & Rochdale are lower. Bolton has the lowest GM numbers on Zoe in GM on 13,719.

These are similar patterns with the Pop Scores order, understandably of course - though Stockport sticks out as the exception - doing well on Zoe and worst of all ten on overall cases. So more cases reported va Zoe must be getting picked up by official testing in Stockport than elsewhere I assume. Suggesting it is age range testing that is a factor here.

Zoe uses more real time reporting of ongoing cases whereas Pop Scores are basically just a tally of positive tests in recent days. That can change the pictire bit too. As can age range testing altering as is clearly occurring with most children having had Omicron and a few more testing positive now being in older age ranges - this being a UK wde patterm emering in past week or two.

So these numbers are offering differing measures but Zoe can anticipate what will hapen in real data beng more real time than the Gov UK data that creates the chart posted above.

But the two things to really recall is more testing = more cases - so numbers are higher than they were when we were not testing everyone often - and this is now inevitably going to drop off meaning fewer cases whether there actually are fewer or not.

AND - as importantly - cases mean far less now anyway - the hospital data - the only thing I keep posting daily - is key - especially the icu ventilator numbers - as however many cases there are in GM is of much less importance now than how many translate into hospital stays - for how long - and how many of those get ventilated and may die.

ALL of those metrics have shifted massively in the pas few weeks so it is indeed true that there is no point in posting daily how many cases are in Stockport today or who is doing slightly better or worse.

Aside for the gudance it gives as noted above.

Anyhow the current GM 10 borough Pop Scores are below V last week and 4 weeks ago.

I will not post these daily as I have not been doing as they have less moment than they usd to do and can infer some areas are doing well or badly when it is not that simple any more.

THE key stat in the chart posted above is the comparison between even the highest in GM V the England average total.

GM right now in the Zoe ongoing cases data - along with the North West - is one of the best regions out of the 12 in UK - 9th out of the 12 and 7th out of the 9 in England. Only North East & Yorkshire are lower, THAT is what really matters
 
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164 all settings deaths - was 199 last week

Wales had 5 V 8 last week, N Ireland 4 V 5 last week & Scotland 15 V 16 last week




140 England only - was 170 last week

116 in England hospitals 12 of them in the North West - was 122 with 19 NW last week




39,656 cases - was 41.130 yeserday & 54,218 last week

Wales had 903 V 1124 last week, N Ireland 2294 V 2889 last week & Scotland 6756 V 7449 last week



29,703 in England - was 30,080 yeserday & 42,756 last week
 
England Hospital Numbers

Happily another Wednesday fall but more modest than last week


Admissions (Monday)

These topped 1000 for first time in 5 days and unsurprising as Monday is always the biggest day for adding patients - but numbres are down week to week.


1030 V 1132 previous week & 1234 week before then.

North West - was like all the big regions down on last week 153 V 163 last week & 194 week before



Patients (today)

8868

That is a fall on yesterday of 80 from 8948 V last week 9804 - which saw a fall of 215

So a bit of a slowdown but still a week to week fall of 936.



East down 23 to 889, London down 33 to 1776, Midlands down 19 to 1657, NE & Yorkshire down 37 to 1361, South East IS the only one to go UP - 47 to 1188, South West down just 1 to 696


AND North West down only 14 to 1301 (V 1437 last Wednesday when it fell 50)



Ventilators (today)

278 - down 6 V 326 last week when it ROSE by 3 on the day



East down 1 to 31, London down 3 to 98, Midlands UP 2 to 36, NE & Yorkshire down 1 to 41,

South East UP 3 to 24 , South West stays at 16


AND North West - down 6 - the most today to 32 (V 41 last week)



THIS IS THE LOWEST NUMBER ON VENTILATORS IN THE NORTH WEST SINCE 4 JUNE
 
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Latest UK hospuital numbers


UK 11.034 patients & 306 ventilated


This day last year there were:- 16,855 patients & 2273 on ventilators



Not hard to see why we are in so much better shape 12 months on

Patients about 65% of last year - Ventilated (as in most serious) -just 13%
 
I think with the end of testing coming and the change in attitudes already being seen, testing figures are probably starting to be misleading as ascertainment drops.

So probably time to look at the ONS weekly survey, which has survived treasury attempts to sit it down, as the only reliable indicator now.

ONS out today continues to show a drop, maybe a little less, perhaps related to BA2 taking over.
 
BA 2 is still uncertain is it not?

We know it is more infectious. Which is a scary thought in of itself given the step up BA 1 Omicron was. But nowhere near as much more infective as BA 1 was over what it replaced.

As I understand there are small indications you can get both versions though as this is as yet so new numbers are small. But no data that it impacts the efficacy of the vaccine or is naturally more dangerous.

Though in lab tests on unvaccinated animals it has created more serious illness. Not sure if that is v BA 1 or v previous variants,

I guess the new normal will involve awaiting the Zeta variant that is way way more infectious as you can get it if you live in the same postcode as someone who does and hope that stays as treatable as what we have.

Kind of like we will be playing the lottery every week for a few years hoping our numbers never come up.

Though I am sure at some point a broader spread vaccine will be created to try to anticipate what comes next.As at the speed these highly infectious variants go there will be quite possibly no time to react to them and vaccinate widely before the next one is in your face.

Hopefully repeated exposure and multipe vaccinations will edge us towards a kind of herd immunity even if that is literally not possible in the same way as you cannot against the multiple variants creating the common cold - gven how Covid allows such variety and reinfection.

I am sure you will correc me if I have misunderstood anything.
 
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