Discuss Pellegrini (Pt 3)

[Chris in London]

Re: Discuss Pellegrini (Pt 2)

The passing stats are quite interesting actually:

City had their best possession stats of their CL campaign so far last night. They attempted and completed the most passes in a CL game this season for us last night (621 & 489 respectively) and had their highest pass completion rate 79%. These fall well short of the leading pass completion stats in the competition. The most attempted passes is 930, the most completed is 828 and the best completion rate is 89%. As 828/930 is 89%, somebody's had a good game somewhere. We're below the competition average is passes attempted, completed and the completion rate, though we did have the debacle of Bayern at home.

Interestingly Bayern have had double the number of attempts on target we've had in the competition so far (48 v 24). We're 8th in the list of attempts on target, 7th in the list of those created inside the area, but again half as many as Bayern (14 v 28). In fact even outside the area we have half as many as Bayern naturally (10 v 20), we're 18th on that list, showing we don't like a pop from outside the area. We rank 17th in passes attempted on 1585, PSG top with 2477 with Barca 2nd on 2455. We move up to 14th on passes completed at 1190, PSG top on 2135 with Barca again 2nd on 2121. We languish 14th on pass completion % with 75%. PSG and Barca top on 86%, Bayern 85%, Real 81%, Arsenal & Ajax 80%, Chelsea and Schalke 79%, Juve 78%, United 77% with Shakhtar and Zenit and Napoli 76%.

Bayern top the possession stats with 65%. City rank 13th with 50%, Barca are 2nd with 64%, PSG 63%, Arsenal 55%, Juve and Ajax 54%, Real 53% and United 52%. So we're clearly not a possession team, but we don't dominate the attempts list either...

In terms of individuals, last night was positive for Nastasic who completed 41 passes at 87%. Zabaleta was the star with 61 passes at 87%. Yaya had 89 passes at 84%, whilst Fernandinho had 76 at 86%. Silva languished a bit at 76%, with Garcia and Negredo at 78% and 77% respectively. Kolarov at 75% with Aguero and Navas at 71%. Hart was 69%. Our overall pass completion rate was 79% compared to 70%.

So our passing and possession stats languish a bit compared to some of the elite clubs, but if the results keep coming then it will prove our play is working.

As a statistician, I have to say that those stats are worthless as we have only played 3 games - one of which being against top of the pile Byern (who frankly took us to the cleaners die to woeful tactical decisions on Pellegrini's part) and two against teams who really are not very good.

The thing about stats is that they have to be used intelligently. I would dispute that they are worthless even though 3 games is a very low base on which to base any statistical analysis. If you had said 'exercise a high degree of caution before reaching any judgments based on 3 games' I would agree entirely but I can't accept the suggestion that those stats are worthless.

They do have to be seen in context, however. If David Silva's pass completion rate is 65% and Javi Garcia's pass completion rate is 80%, that does not give you the whole picture, which is that if Garcia is playing at centre back a lot of the passes he completes are along the back 4 when he is under no pressure at all, whereas Silva's 65% is largely completed in the middle and attacking thirds, often under pressure and played in more congested areas of the pitch. Likewise, if you look at possession stats, they would tell you that one team has been in possession 51% of the time, the other 49% of the time. That doesn't tell you that the team who had 51% possession actually had something like 75% possession until they went 3 or 4-0 ahead and then took their foot off the gas for the last 30 minutes. The possession stats for the Derby game and the Bayern game are quite misleading for that reason - in both games, one team only came into it when the match was already over as a contest. So any stat in itself can be quite misleading unless seen in its proper context.

That said, the comparisons against Bayern is quite interesting, and IMO entirely valid because they have spent the same amount of time on the pitch against the same opponents, and have significantly better stats than us. Those again need to be seen in context, because for instance they played CSKA at home but are yet to go to Moscow. Then again, they bossed the game against us. What they show us is that the win at our place was no one off fluke. They confirm that Bayern is a long way ahead of us.

Then again, they are a long way ahead of most teams ATM.

 

[Marvin]

Re: Discuss Pellegrini (Pt 2)

The passing stats are quite interesting actually:

City had their best possession stats of their CL campaign so far last night. They attempted and completed the most passes in a CL game this season for us last night (621 & 489 respectively) and had their highest pass completion rate 79%. These fall well short of the leading pass completion stats in the competition. The most attempted passes is 930, the most completed is 828 and the best completion rate is 89%. As 828/930 is 89%, somebody's had a good game somewhere. We're below the competition average is passes attempted, completed and the completion rate, though we did have the debacle of Bayern at home.

Interestingly Bayern have had double the number of attempts on target we've had in the competition so far (48 v 24). We're 8th in the list of attempts on target, 7th in the list of those created inside the area, but again half as many as Bayern (14 v 28). In fact even outside the area we have half as many as Bayern naturally (10 v 20), we're 18th on that list, showing we don't like a pop from outside the area. We rank 17th in passes attempted on 1585, PSG top with 2477 with Barca 2nd on 2455. We move up to 14th on passes completed at 1190, PSG top on 2135 with Barca again 2nd on 2121. We languish 14th on pass completion % with 75%. PSG and Barca top on 86%, Bayern 85%, Real 81%, Arsenal & Ajax 80%, Chelsea and Schalke 79%, Juve 78%, United 77% with Shakhtar and Zenit and Napoli 76%.

Bayern top the possession stats with 65%. City rank 13th with 50%, Barca are 2nd with 64%, PSG 63%, Arsenal 55%, Juve and Ajax 54%, Real 53% and United 52%. So we're clearly not a possession team, but we don't dominate the attempts list either...

In terms of individuals, last night was positive for Nastasic who completed 41 passes at 87%. Zabaleta was the star with 61 passes at 87%. Yaya had 89 passes at 84%, whilst Fernandinho had 76 at 86%. Silva languished a bit at 76%, with Garcia and Negredo at 78% and 77% respectively. Kolarov at 75% with Aguero and Navas at 71%. Hart was 69%. Our overall pass completion rate was 79% compared to 70%.

So our passing and possession stats languish a bit compared to some of the elite clubs, but if the results keep coming then it will prove our play is working.

As a statistician, I have to say that those stats are worthless as we have only played 3 games - one of which being against top of the pile Byern (who frankly took us to the cleaners die to woeful tactical decisions on Pellegrini's part) and two against teams who really are not very good.

The thing about stats is that they have to be used intelligently. I would dispute that they are worthless even though 3 games is a very low base on which to base any statistical analysis. If you had said 'exercise a high degree of caution before reaching any judgments based on 3 games' I would agree entirely but I can't accept the suggestion that those stats are worthless.

They do have to be seen in context, however. If David Silva's pass completion rate is 65% and Javi Garcia's pass completion rate is 80%, that does not give you the whole picture, which is that if Garcia is playing at centre back a lot of the passes he completes are along the back 4 when he is under no pressure at all, whereas Silva's 65% is largely completed in the middle and attacking thirds, often under pressure and played in more congested areas of the pitch. Likewise, if you look at possession stats, they would tell you that one team has been in possession 51% of the time, the other 49% of the time. That doesn't tell you that the team who had 51% possession actually had something like 75% possession until they went 3 or 4-0 ahead and then took their foot off the gas for the last 30 minutes. The possession stats for the Derby game and the Bayern game are quite misleading for that reason - in both games, one team only came into it when the match was already over as a contest. So any stat in itself can be quite misleading unless seen in its proper context.

That said, the comparisons against Bayern is quite interesting, and IMO entirely valid because they have spent the same amount of time on the pitch against the same opponents, and have significantly better stats than us. Those again need to be seen in context, because for instance they played CSKA at home but are yet to go to Moscow. Then again, they bossed the game against us. What they show us is that the win at our place was no one off fluke. They confirm that Bayern is a long way ahead of us.

Then again, they are a long way ahead of most teams ATM.

Stats and comparisons may well be interesting, but the conclusion made was incorrect as BA clearly explained

 

[Le Havre Oswald]

Re: Discuss Pellegrini (Pt 2)

I suppose its better than boring crap sideways football.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Re: Discuss Pellegrini (Pt 2)

As a statistician, I have to say that those stats are worthless as we have only played 3 games - one of which being against top of the pile Byern (who frankly took us to the cleaners die to woeful tactical decisions on Pellegrini's part) and two against teams who really are not very good.

The thing about stats is that they have to be used intelligently. I would dispute that they are worthless even though 3 games is a very low base on which to base any statistical analysis. If you had said 'exercise a high degree of caution before reaching any judgments based on 3 games' I would agree entirely but I can't accept the suggestion that those stats are worthless.

They do have to be seen in context, however. If David Silva's pass completion rate is 65% and Javi Garcia's pass completion rate is 80%, that does not give you the whole picture, which is that if Garcia is playing at centre back a lot of the passes he completes are along the back 4 when he is under no pressure at all, whereas Silva's 65% is largely completed in the middle and attacking thirds, often under pressure and played in more congested areas of the pitch. Likewise, if you look at possession stats, they would tell you that one team has been in possession 51% of the time, the other 49% of the time. That doesn't tell you that the team who had 51% possession actually had something like 75% possession until they went 3 or 4-0 ahead and then took their foot off the gas for the last 30 minutes. The possession stats for the Derby game and the Bayern game are quite misleading for that reason - in both games, one team only came into it when the match was already over as a contest. So any stat in itself can be quite misleading unless seen in its proper context.

That said, the comparisons against Bayern is quite interesting, and IMO entirely valid because they have spent the same amount of time on the pitch against the same opponents, and have significantly better stats than us. Those again need to be seen in context, because for instance they played CSKA at home but are yet to go to Moscow. Then again, they bossed the game against us. What they show us is that the win at our place was no one off fluke. They confirm that Bayern is a long way ahead of us.

Then again, they are a long way ahead of most teams ATM.

Stats and comparisons may well be interesting, but the conclusion made was incorrect as BA clearly explained

BTW I didn't say that they weren't interesting. They are.

 

[JoeMercer'sWay]

Re: Discuss Pellegrini (Pt 2)

As a statistician, I have to say that those stats are worthless as we have only played 3 games - one of which being against top of the pile Byern (who frankly took us to the cleaners die to woeful tactical decisions on Pellegrini's part) and two against teams who really are not very good.

the stats reflect how we played in those games, so they're not worthless at all. You can see the differing styles in the way teams play just by looking at them compared to other teams, and sorry playing Bayern isn't an excuse, if the stats are shit then funnily enough it's because that night we were shit.

As has been said the possession stats have been so distorted by the match with Bayern so that you can not possibly conclude that City "are not a possession team".

Away fixtures and a pitch like a beach don't help either.

I said "languishing in comparison to", not that we "weren't", we just don't do it to the extent of some of the elite European clubs, and I did state the Bayern game as a reason for our lower passing stats.

So when you're going to interpret me, and "quote me", at least do me the favour of reading what I've actually written as opposed to what you wanted me to write so you could have a pop and look clever.

 

[jollylescott]

Re: Discuss Pellegrini (Pt 2)

I still don't see much by way of tactical changes, to be honest.

It's not tactical Pellegrini has changed, it's simple positive thinking.

I though we were crap last night and on other nights, just like Mancini, we would have had our arses served on a plate by a better team.

For me, he has to find a better balance between the two. We have gone from one extreme to the other and it's open season running off the back of our midfield.

Case in point, West Ham at the weekend.

Reminded me so much of our games at Norwich and Newcastle last season. Lovely stuff to watch but a failure to take chances left the game hanging in the balance for far too long.

We're creating more chances and taking more chances though than we did last season. For me the number of chances we create will continue to grow as the players get to know the manager's system better. We're improving each week at present and the only weakness we have is losing Vinny to injury and the knock on effect that has. With him back in the team, which he will be on Sunday, we're more than equipped to score more than Chelsea, or any team in our league, does.

It's not the scoring I am worried about, mate.

The whole philosophy can't live or die with Vinny being fit from one week to the next.

That's where we seem to be at.

We were terrible last night, I really do feel that. There were times lacking so much cohesion and general shape.

I retain hope he knows we need a new top class left back and centre back.

My crude perception of MP is that he follows the 'fortune favours the brave' philosophy. I think this audacious approach was probably used when he managed Madrid (we have better players than them so we can score more goals than the opposition).

It's no wonder that we are currently the top scores in the League. I suspect that this will still be the case at the end of the season, but whether that is sufficient to win the title is another matter.

It's fantastic to watch this all out attacking model. At times it's breathtaking to watch the axis of Merlin/Kun/The Beast. However unlike his predecessor his obsession is attack, not defence.

So what we have now is the opposite to Roberto. The ultra-cautious Italian compared to the gung ho Chilean.

For me I prefer the all out attack, but my goodness it's at times frightening watching the ball go into our defensive end.

In saying all this I sincerely hope that we don't play into Mourinho's hands this weekend. They can be lethal on transition and MP has to be very mindful of this.

 

[citijin]

Re: Discuss Pellegrini (Pt 2)

 

[JoeMercer'sWay]

Re: Discuss Pellegrini (Pt 2)

"now can you dig that sucka?!"

 

[Ardwick Green Blue]

Re: Discuss Pellegrini (Pt 2)

I'm not convinced by Pellegrini on what I have seen to date. The style of play he he has set down is adventurous but it seems to me very Keegan-esque as it boils down to 'we will score more than you'. We appear unable to shut down a game when in front and even the most modest of teams seem to be able to drive at the heart of our defence unhindered. Some may find this entertaining, edge of your seat fare but for me it does not seem to be a major trophy winning approach.

 

[waspish]

Discuss Pellegrini (Pt 2)

I'm not convinced by Pellegrini on what I have seen to date. The style of play he he has set down is adventurous but it seems to me very Keegan-esque as it boils down to 'we will score more than you'. We appear unable to shut down a game when in front and even the most modest of teams seem to be able to drive at the heart of our defence unhindered. Some may find this entertaining, edge of your seat fare but for me it does not seem to be a major trophy winning approach.

Tend to agree the only way Pelegrini will convince me he is a Winning manager is if we win a trophy...