Donald Trump

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Precisely. It’s the Hillary Clinton overconfidence lesson learned in 2016 that probably helped Biden and, hopefully, will do Harris also.

The reopening of the email case saw off Hilary in '16.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

The reopening of the email case saw off Hilary in '16.

True in part but . . . I think a LOT of folks figured she’d cruise and stayed home or, rather, didn’t make it a priority.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

True in part but . . . I think a LOT of folks figured she’d cruise and stayed home or, rather, didn’t make it a priority.

It definitely had an impact, but we'll never know for sure why Comey did what he did, and who told him to do it. Voter apathy certainly help her.

 

[SWP's back]

if either side could produce a middle of the road centre president im sure theyd get swing voters.

november will be about which side is the least mental.

Harris is middle of the road. She’s still to the right of the Tories. Just because the GoP have tried to move the Overton window three miles to the right doesn’t mean the Dems have become more left wing.

 

[west didsblue]

if either side could produce a middle of the road centre president im sure theyd get swing voters.

november will be about which side is the least mental.

If it were simply about having the least mental candidate literally anyone would beat Trump by a country mile.
The problem is the 70 million people who are too dumb to realise that Trump is not only mentally unfit to run a country, he’d be too stupid to run a bath.

 

[Vic]

yeah right

So that would be his own bestest trade deal that he's breaking...

 

[franksinatra]

If someone is going to vote for Trump on election day because "they believe Harris hasn't made a strong enough argument on the economy/immigration" it's highly likely those people were either already swaying towards Trump anyway, and/or are just too fucking stupid to realise the consequences the orange racist **** winning a second term.

A lot of the data suggests it’s a bit more nuanced than that.

We have seen over here how the red wall has collapsed previously and voted for the Conservatives and how Labour, to again power, have to appeal to voters from the middle right ground.

There will be a hardcore of voters who will vote Trump regardless of what he does, how he behaves but I’m sure, just like over here, there are those without steadfast beliefs who can be swayed by putting the right arguments together and appealing to their concerns.

The New York Times wrote an article on the swing voters, highlighting that many consider themselves moderates, many despise Trump, but are still open to voting for him, and many of these voters don’t think they really ‘know’ Harris or what her vision is.

The leading pollsters suggest who wins the election will come down to 150,000 votes across the swing states, to dismiss those swing voters, as not able to be influenced, could be costly.

 

[franksinatra]

Fair enough; I misunderstood. That said, the reason she hasn't made the case or whatever is because (a) there's no emotional case to make -- the facts are very clear (hence why she's focused on more hot-button specific issues like "housing"), and (b) the swing voters are a small number rendered irrelevant if her base turns out. For three-plus years I've said the same thing: turnout, turnout, turnout. If her and Trump's base both turn out, she wins, because blues outnumber reds. So her money and energy is better spent making her supporters more enthusiastic about HER than by trying to convince the already-skeptical that she has some special plan to soothe their fears about immigrants. This issue of inspiration to pull the lever was obviously a major problem with Biden.

Yes thanks again for your post. Like I say I am not an expert on this topic so happy to read, learn and for the things I’ve read to be challenged.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Trump's statement on Ukraine yesterday confirmed what we already knew. Basically, If Trump wins - Ukraine is finished - probably NATO too as Moldiva and the Baltics won't be defended against Putin either.
How any of my ex US military friends, most with with some level of traditional Republican leaning could vote for this aresehole is simply beyond me.

 

[west didsblue]

Trump's statement on Ukraine yesterday confirmed what we already knew. Basically, If Trump wins - Ukraine is finished - probably NATO too as Moldiva and the Baltics won't be defended against Putin either.
How any of my ex US military friends, most with with some level of traditional Republican leaning could vote for this aresehole is simply beyond me.

And if anyone thinks it’s just rhetoric from him and he wouldn’t do what he says on Ukraine, you only need to look at Afghanistan where he effectively surrendered to the Taliban by releasing thousands of terrorists then withdrew support for the Afghan government leaving Biden with an impossible situation that was unrecoverable without restarting a major war.