Donald Trump

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Well it might ‘feel’ it is happening to them. Like I said having a strong Dow is not going to necessarily reassure someone that their job opportunities locally will improve and if they link that to
Immigration, the rhetoric of the Republicans, this might sway their vote in the Republicans favour.

It’s easy to say that is just trump Voters but it seems, from reports, the condition of the economy and immigration are the two central
Issues.

Going back to my original post there is an argument the Democrats are not doing enough to allay those fears or highlight the positives in the economy, which may cost them with the swing voters.

I think your original post HAS already been answered so I don't see a need to go back to it. Maybe my answer didn't appeal but it's still the correct answer.

The reason the economy and immigration are "the two key issues" is because they are the two key issues with the 1/2 GOP who respond to such surveys, whereas Democrats have a wider variety of issues they care about -- including abortion, and the defen(c)se of democracy.

So add 50% of two issues and 50% of, say six issues, and we are going to get, nationally, a result that suggests the two most important things to voters are those two things. But not necessarily to Democrats.

The political strategist at my work doesn't understand the maths of this either, much to my frustration (I do a lot of survey work for a living), so don't worry that you don't.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Donny's gone on another long insulting post about Omaha not wanting to change it's rules on electoral college.
Diddums.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Cannot disagree with any of that but from the reports I’ve read the Democrats don’t really need to appeal to the Republicans entrenched supporter base just those who are not sure which way to vote, which suggests they have not yet been fully swayed by the lies of Trump/Vance etc.

It’s reported over here that 100k swing voters will decide the election, with the economy and immigration regularly being considered the main issues of the electorate and the areas many think the democrats have not made their case strongly enough.

Swing voters aren't necessarily undecided on Trump vs. Harris -- they're undecided on whether they are going to show up to the polls and actually vote. They may be "Never Harris, but I don't like Trump either" or "Never Trump, but I don't know Harris so well" so its about grassroots getting those people to get off their keisters and show up. For those who definitely plan to vote there are almost no undecided "swing" voters.

 

[M Gaudino]

Joe Biden is a middle of the road President. I mean -- literally the middlest-of-the-roadest.

And no one wants him.

he won the last election?

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

he won the last election?

No one wants him now due to age, right? So being centre of the road politically/policy-wise isn't enough.

There's no such thing as centre of the road right now anyhow.

There's no centre of the road between "will attempt to subvert democracy if we lose " vs. "won't subvert democracy".

 

[franksinatra]

I think your original post HAS already been answered so I don't see a need to go back to it. Maybe my answer didn't appeal but it's still the correct answer.

The reason the economy and immigration are "the two key issues" is because they are the two key issues with the 1/2 GOP who respond to such surveys, whereas Democrats have a wider variety of issues they care about -- including abortion, and the defen(c)se of democracy.

So add 50% of two issues and 50% of, say six issues, and we are going to get, nationally, a result that suggests the two most important things to voters are those two things. But not necessarily to Democrats.

The political strategist at my work doesn't understand the maths of this either, much to my frustration (I do a lot of survey work for a living), so don't worry that you don't.

Thank you for the quick Maths lesson but if you reread my original post my comments about immigration and the economy being the main issues, related to Trump/Republican supporters and potentially swing voters. The former a point you agree is the main issue for the GOP supporters.

So it was not a case of misunderstanding any Maths, as the views of democrats was completely irrelevant to my point.

As I say I don’t claim to be an expert on this topic and I have not posted to ‘win’ an argument ‘score’ points just to share information as it was relevant in the context of ‘categorising’ groups of Trump Supporters.

My comments were paraphrasing the likes of Frank Luntz (the famous pollster and identifier of political trends/opinions) and Anthony Scaramucci (former White House communication director) who both think Kamala Harris has not made the argument on the economy/immigration strong enough to the electorate or specifically to voters who maybe are uncommitted/undecided.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Thank you for the quick Maths lesson but if you reread my original post my comments about immigration and the economy being the main issues, related to Trump/Republican supporters and potentially swing voters. The former a point you agree is the main issue for the GOP supporters.

So it was not a case of misunderstanding any Maths, as the views of democrats was completely irrelevant to my point.

As I say I don’t claim to be an expert on this topic and I have not posted to ‘win’ an argument ‘score’ points just to share information as it was relevant in the context of ‘categorising’ groups of Trump Supporters.

My comments were paraphrasing the likes of Frank Luntz (the famous pollster and identifier of political trends/opinions) and Anthony Scaramucci (former White House communication director) who both think Kamala Harris has not made the argument on the economy/immigration strong enough to the electorate or specifically to voters who maybe are uncommitted/undecided.

Fair enough; I misunderstood. That said, the reason she hasn't made the case or whatever is because (a) there's no emotional case to make -- the facts are very clear (hence why she's focused on more hot-button specific issues like "housing"), and (b) the swing voters are a small number rendered irrelevant if her base turns out. For three-plus years I've said the same thing: turnout, turnout, turnout. If her and Trump's base both turn out, she wins, because blues outnumber reds. So her money and energy is better spent making her supporters more enthusiastic about HER than by trying to convince the already-skeptical that she has some special plan to soothe their fears about immigrants. This issue of inspiration to pull the lever was obviously a major problem with Biden.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Thank you for the quick Maths lesson but if you reread my original post my comments about immigration and the economy being the main issues, related to Trump/Republican supporters and potentially swing voters. The former a point you agree is the main issue for the GOP supporters.

So it was not a case of misunderstanding any Maths, as the views of democrats was completely irrelevant to my point.

As I say I don’t claim to be an expert on this topic and I have not posted to ‘win’ an argument ‘score’ points just to share information as it was relevant in the context of ‘categorising’ groups of Trump Supporters.

My comments were paraphrasing the likes of Frank Luntz (the famous pollster and identifier of political trends/opinions) and Anthony Scaramucci (former White House communication director) who both think Kamala Harris has not made the argument on the economy/immigration strong enough to the electorate or specifically to voters who maybe are uncommitted/undecided.

If someone is going to vote for Trump on election day because "they believe Harris hasn't made a strong enough argument on the economy/immigration" it's highly likely those people were either already swaying towards Trump anyway, and/or are just too fucking stupid to realise the consequences the orange racist **** winning a second term.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Swing voters aren't necessarily undecided on Trump vs. Harris -- they're undecided on whether they are going to show up to the polls and actually vote. They may be "Never Harris, but I don't like Trump either" or "Never Trump, but I don't know Harris so well" so its about grassroots getting those people to get off their keisters and show up. For those who definitely plan to vote there are almost no undecided "swing" voters.

I think this is 100% correct. One inherent danger being that a strong lead for Kamala in the polls may mean some voters don't think they 'need' to turn out.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I think this is 100% correct. One inherent danger being that a strong lead for Kamala in the polls may mean some voters don't think they 'need' to turn out.

Precisely. It’s the Hillary Clinton overconfidence lesson learned in 2016 that probably helped Biden and, hopefully, will do Harris also.