Donald Trump

[SWP's back]

So... you believe that pollsters are intentionally slanting their results for Trump because such an outcome will prove more profitable?

No, I said it’s more believable than the polls being accurate.

 

[Phil1]

Cheers.

"Dumbest nation" though - is, I think, a misreading of contemporary American politics. 30% of so of the voting populace is die-hard pro-Trump, no matter what. From there, many Republicans watch Fox News and other right-leaning outlets almost exclusively. They're bound to always vote Republican, no matter what, and will excuse any moral mis-steps by Trump. Thus, Trump locks up a substantial portion of the popular vote.

Meanwhile, Democrats lock up the popular vote in numerous states.

What then transpires, is that the next US President is decided by a handful of swing states - that could vote either way. Due to state law and to the electoral college system, these swing states tend to (always?) vote all of their delegates 100% to whomever wins their single state election results - votes in such states are not proportionally awarded.

For example, say in State X with 10 electoral college votes, Trump wins the election in State X, 51% to 49%. In such a State, all 10 electoral college delegates must, by law, vote for Trump, even though 49% of the state voted for Biden.

This is why the electoral college system is broken and needs to be replaced - e.g., the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

Yeah, reading that hasn’t changed my mind.
The fact the narcissistic, sociopathic, racist misogynist is in the race tells its own story and those are his fucking plus points.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Or has studied the demographics since 2020, the constant polling errors, the economy and believes there is absolutely zero good news for Trump in any of the above.

Or has looked at 2016 and the Access Hollywood revelation days before the election... and for WTF ever reason, Trump won - shocking even Trump himself.

Dude - the 2024 election is going to be down to a handful of swing states due the screwed up electoral college. I hope you're right predicting that Biden will win hands down. But I've zero confidence that you are correct or are in fact incorrect. Beats me what will happen either way.

Truth is, nobody fucking knows. And at this point, is pretty goddamn close either way.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Yeah, reading that hasn’t changed my mind.
The fact the narcissistic, sociopathic, racist misogynist is in the race tells its own story and those are his fucking plus points.

And yet, Hitler came to power.

Nobody fucking knows who will for sure win the 2024 election - and right now, it's pretty goddamn close either way.

 

[Phil1]

And yet, Hitler came to power.

Well that’s ok then..

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Well that’s ok then..

No, it's not fucking OK then. A Trump presidency might well be worse for the world than when Hitler came to power.

 

[SWP's back]

Or has looked at 2016 and the Access Hollywood revelation days before the election... and for WTF ever reason, Trump won - shocking even Trump himself.

You’re aware several things have happened since 2016 and the Access Hollywood revelation yeah?

2016 Trump was an unknown quantity.

2016 Trump had plenty of Indy’s thinking “Well let’s give him a shot and see. What’s the worst that can happen?”

2016 Trump doesn’t exist anymore. Every voter that has the remotest of open mind knows what Trump was like in Office. They know he colluded with Russia. They know he’s twice Impeached. They know he sexually assaulted E Jean Carrol to a standard that would be considered rape. They know he’s a fraud. They know he’s been ordered to pay nearly half a billion in fines. They know he wants to leave NATO. They know he’s in Putin’s pocket.

Trump lost the last election in 2020. As the fucking incumbent. That’s something that rarely happens in the US. He then went on to ferment an insurrection, a stupid person coup. He was impeached a second time after losing the election. A good proportion of his voting base from 2016 and 2020 has died since that time.

As I say, my money, both literally and metaphorically, is on a Trump loss, and likely by more than in 2020. I don’t believe there’s a single thing that gives him more of a chance than he had when he last lost the election.

But by all means, worry as much as you want and worry on my behalf if you must. A wise man once said to me that “worrying about something you have no means of affecting is very similar to riding a rocking horse. It gives you something to do, but it won’t get you anywhere.”

We’ll both find out the results at the same time but I’d rather be sanguine between now and November.

 

[Phil1]

No, it's not fucking OK then. A Trump presidency might well be worse for the world than when Hitler came to power.

You seem a bit confused. I’ll let you rant away for a bit, get it out of your system.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

You’re aware several things have happened since 2016 and the Access Hollywood revelation yeah?

2016 Trump was an unknown quantity.

2016 Trump had plenty of Indy’s thinking “Well let’s give him a shot and see. What’s the worst that can happen?”

2016 Trump doesn’t exist anymore. Every voter that has the remotest of open mind knows what Trump was like in Office. They know he colluded with Russia. They know he’s twice Impeached. They know he sexually assaulted E Jean Carrol to a standard that would be considered rape. They know he’s a fraud. They know he’s been ordered to pay nearly half a billion in fines. They know he wants to leave NATO. They know he’s in Putin’s pocket.

Trump lost the last election in 2020. As the fucking incumbent. That’s something that rarely happens in the US. He then went on to ferment an insurrection, a stupid person coup. He was impeached a second time after losing the election. A good proportion of his voting base from 2016 and 2020 has died since that time.

As I say, my money, both literally and metaphorically, is on a Trump loss, and likely by more than in 2020. I don’t believe there’s a single thing that gives him more of a chance than he had when he last lost the election.

But by all means, worry as much as you want and worry on my behalf if you must. A wise man once said to me that “worrying about something you have no means of affecting is very similar to riding a rocking horse. It gives you something to do, but it won’t get you anywhere.”

We’ll both find out the results at the same time but I’d rather be sanguine between now and November.

>> We’ll both find out the results at the same time but I’d rather be sanguine between now and November.
From a mental health perspective, sanguine optimism in a hoped-for future is probably optimal. From a cold, disinterested perspective, unfounded optimism is detrimental towards accurate prediction of future outcomes.

Me? I'm not confident either way. I'm extremely hopeful, though - but not at all sanguine at this point - that BIden will win.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

You seem a bit confused. I’ll let you rant away for a bit, get it out of your system.

You seem to be posturing - strike that, you are posturing.

Almost nobody thought that Trump would win election in 2016 - but he did.

In 2024, the majority opinion is that the election is going to be close and that Trump has a real chance, or is perhaps even favorite to win.

And yet, you're in some sort of denialism over this basic fact.