Trump is guilty as hell. I think he'll be a convicted felon once this trial runs to conclusion. But it only takes one vote against conviction to result in a hung jury. At this point I'm 60-40 or so thinking that Trump will be convicted at the conclusion of this trial.
At which point sentencing deliberations will occur alongside an appeal of the verdict. Bottom line - Trump will run this case past election day with ease. And unless he's convicted, Trump will spin any hung jury verdict as an acquittal.
If not convicted, I think that this will be a win for Trump. And even if convicted, I don't think that this will impact election results.