Early thoughts on City and the Premier League

Keeper! said:
Some very good points Marvin.

Already we see the title is between 3 teams Us , Liverpool and Chelsea but I also don't think the rags will be far off and may well take points against all the top sides.

Good point about Grealish, at this time he does slow us down, reminds me very much of Mahrez when he first arrived. Pep will get hold of him and I am sure we will see a very good player, a 100m player? not sure myself.
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Grealish reminds me most of Rodney Marsh, except he's a bit quicker. As for him being surplus to requirements on the left, I think he's one of those players who could play anywhere along the front 6. He's bright and intelligent, and young enough to be moulded by Pep in the next 2 seasons. Mahrez looked a bit surplus to requirements when we got him but he's had some superb spells over the last 12 months, and was undroppable towards the end of last season. No reason why Grealish won't become just as valuable to the squad, if not even more so.

I suspect that United will be our closest rivals, not Chelsea. What I've seen of Chelsea, I suspect that Lukaku will make them a bit too 1 dimensional. Will Ronaldo help to bridge the 12 point gap between us?
Hope not. I think we'll be better than last season, especially when KDB and Foden come back in. It certainly looks like no one else is coming in. Anyway, if Torres can build on his confident start - and Jesus - who knows what's possible.

Fingers crossed.
 
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Love the fact most of our front players are young, only Mahrez is 30 and the likes of Jesus, Foden and Torres are obviously early 20s, with Delap even younger. Even Sterling and Grealish are only mid 20s and still young

Its working so far and if these players continue to click and we get something special, we could be set in these forward positions for years.
 
We’ll be second but not sure to who.

Mixture of games we don’t score in and games we thrash the opposition.

Best team on our day but not consistent enough.
 
No Haaland or any other first class striker, but there's nothing to do about.... can't see us winning some silver trophy this season.... CTID
 
Blue-tinted glasses fully removed, my early thoughts are that this season will not be as close as a lot of people seem to expect. I watched the Liverpool-Chelsea game and it's difficult for me to see anyone stopping them this season. Their squad is arguably the best in the league and they have no discernible weaknesses. Beating is them is going to be a monumental task for most teams.

United should be challenging with the squad they have, but their manager is not even in the same league as the other top four teams. The individual quality of the players might get him out of one or two difficult situations, but he will be exposed yet again over the course of the season. I fully expect them to get top four, but I don't think the points gap from them to 5th will be a lot.

Liverpool are still a strong side, but their midfield remains weak and they are therefore too one-dimensional. If there isn't the space to play long balls over the top, or the opposition are not gifting them counter-attacking opportunities, then they are left relying on dodgy officiating to gift them penalties. They might be the most at threat from Spurs or Leicester. Conversely, they might have a brilliant season and seriously challenge Chelsea. They're a bit of a wildcard for me.

It's easy to point to last season and conclude that we will be challenging, but I think that ignores how poor some of our competition were and how much they have strengthened (with the exception of Liverpool). I could see us finishing anywhere from 2nd to 4th. We will have to really pull something out of the hat to finish top. Conversely, a run of bad form could easily see us fall out of the top four, especially if Spurs or Leicester have a strong season.
 
Chelsea have strengthened an already very strong team with Lukaku and Saul, which has to make them favorites now, esp considering they beat us 3 times in a row at the end of last season,

Surprised they let Zouma go, as I think they’re strong at the back, but an injury of two away from struggling to play a top quality back 3.

Chelsea, City, United and Liverpool look like they could create a great scrap for the title. Throw in Spurs, WHU, Leicester, and Everton and it looks like there will be plenty of serious competition for European places this season.
 
Chelsea or City for me this time round. Liverpool third. Spurs fourth. Utd fifth. But who knows really.
 
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Premier League Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Premier League predictions
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

We're favourites with 45% of winning the league according to 538. Next best is Liverpool at 21%, Chelsea @ 18% and Rags @ 8%

Depends how much credit you give their method, but for reference here's the past couple of years predictions before a ball was kicked.

City 57% (1st correct)
Liverpool 24% (3rd)
United 8% (2nd)
Chelsea 7% (4th correct)

City 55% (2nd)
Liverpool 31% (1st)
Chelsea 5% (4th)
Spurs 4% (6th)

City 45% (1st correct)
Liverpool 24% (2nd correct)
Spurs 11% (4th)
Chelsea 8% (3rd)

City 27% (1st correct)
Chelsea 20% (5th)
United 18% (2nd)
Spurs 13% (3rd)

City 41% (3rd)
Arsenal 18% (5th)
Chelsea 14% (1st)
United 11% (6th)

Bear in mind this is statistical modelling based on results only, so each teams transfer window won't be taken into account as far as I'm aware. It obviously gets more accurate the more games have been played - not only because there's less to play, but the teams' ratings are improved.

For what its worth I think their current prediction is quite a way off, might have a better idea by Christmas
 
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