Edin Dzeko (contract update page 370)

Re: Edin Dzeko legend

Dzeko & Hyde said:
pudge said:
Dzeko & Hyde said:
Dzeko has the BEST goals per start in league this year. Surprised?

Dzeko 4 goals in 7 starts: .571
Aguero 7 goals in 14 starts: .500
Tevez 7 goals in 15 starts: .466
Balotelli 1 goal in 7 starts: .142

Let's put that inaccurate argument to bed for good please.
What are their records from the bench?

Or better yet, throughout their city career's

I know you have Internet access, go check it out and report back. It's your turn. ;-)
That posts proves that stats can be manipulated to prove what the person wants.

And I'm not bashing Dzeko before everyone starts, just highlighting that above point.<br /><br />-- Jan 3rd, '13, 17:21 --<br /><br />
The cookie monster said:
City careers

Serge = 123
dzeko=125
Tevez= 132
Mario=151
So Sergio has the best, just good to see the full picture and not half a season.
 
Re: Edin Dzeko legend

pudge said:
Dzeko & Hyde said:
pudge said:
What are their records from the bench?

Or better yet, throughout their city career's

I know you have Internet access, go check it out and report back. It's your turn. ;-)
That posts proves that stats can be manipulated to prove what the person wants.

And I'm not bashing Dzeko before everyone starts, just highlighting that above point.

-- Jan 3rd, '13, 17:21 --

The cookie monster said:
City careers

Serge = 123
dzeko=125
Tevez= 132
Mario=151
So Sergio has the best, just good to see the full picture and not half a season.

I only included this season's stats because that's when the "Dzeko has a poor starting record" argument gained popularity.

We do share a common belief though. We both believe that 7 starts is too few to draw any conclusion. So is 10 starts. The sample size is too small. That was the main point of my first post; how quickly stats can turn the other direction when the sample size is too small.

So people should just drop that argument.
 
Re: Edin Dzeko legend

Dzeko & Hyde said:
pudge said:
Dzeko & Hyde said:
I know you have Internet access, go check it out and report back. It's your turn. ;-)
That posts proves that stats can be manipulated to prove what the person wants.

And I'm not bashing Dzeko before everyone starts, just highlighting that above point.

-- Jan 3rd, '13, 17:21 --

The cookie monster said:
City careers

Serge = 123
dzeko=125
Tevez= 132
Mario=151
So Sergio has the best, just good to see the full picture and not half a season.

I only included this season's stats because that's when the "Dzeko has a poor starting record" argument gained popularity.

We do share a common belief though. We both believe that 7 starts is too few to draw any conclusion. So is 10 starts. The sample size is too small. That was the main point of my first post; how quickly stats can turn the other direction when the sample size is too small.

So people should just drop that argument.
I agree he's making that argument void with his recent performances, but before this season it was a valid argument based on his performances.

Much like the 'super sub' argument.
 
Re: Edin Dzeko legend

the "super sub" or its corollary that "he can't score when he starts" is and always was complete rubbish. The act of scoring a goal is in and of itself such a rare event with so many events leading up to it that an appropriate sample to somehow determine that a player is only good when coming off the bench is probably measured in years, if not decades, and that would only be valid if the player somehow stayed in the same team with the same setup for that entire duration. It boggles the mind that people somehow bought into an idea that a proven International who has scored goals as a starter throughout his career could somehow only be good off the bench for City because of no reason other than small sample size evidence. It was absolutely elementary thinking and it is, to be honest, embarassing.

In order to even try to posit the hypothesis that Dzeko is best off the bench, you'd have to start by reconciling all his work for his national team and at Wolfsburg, then come up with an actual reason as to why his scoring record off the bench is predictive as opposed to simply a fluctuation in statistics. There aren't a lot of variables that change after 60 minutes of a game has been played aside from fatigue and tactic modification, and in pretty much all cases both are probably influential, but neither would completely explain why a player would be dominant off the bench and lousy as a starter.

To put it another way, any player who is capable of scoring a bunch of goals in a run of games is probably capable of doing it as a starter or as a sub. It will, always, manifest itself in different ways that seem to look like a pattern but are entirely a result of random events. It was a really classic case of correlation leading people to think causality was at play.
 
Re: Edin Dzeko legend

teddykgb said:
the "super sub" or its corollary that "he can't score when he starts" is and always was complete rubbish. The act of scoring a goal is in and of itself such a rare event with so many events leading up to it that an appropriate sample to somehow determine that a player is only good when coming off the bench is probably measured in years, if not decades, and that would only be valid if the player somehow stayed in the same team with the same setup for that entire duration. It boggles the mind that people somehow bought into an idea that a proven International who has scored goals as a starter throughout his career could somehow only be good off the bench for City because of no reason other than small sample size evidence. It was absolutely elementary thinking and it is, to be honest, embarassing.

In order to even try to posit the hypothesis that Dzeko is best off the bench, you'd have to start by reconciling all his work for his national team and at Wolfsburg, then come up with an actual reason as to why his scoring record off the bench is predictive as opposed to simply a fluctuation in statistics. There aren't a lot of variables that change after 60 minutes of a game has been played aside from fatigue and tactic modification, and in pretty much all cases both are probably influential, but neither would completely explain why a player would be dominant off the bench and lousy as a starter.

To put it another way, any player who is capable of scoring a bunch of goals in a run of games is probably capable of doing it as a starter or as a sub. It will, always, manifest itself in different ways that seem to look like a pattern but are entirely a result of random events. It was a really classic case of correlation leading people to think causality was at play.

I like this post so much that I would like to settle down, marry it and live in a log cabin in the Canadian Rockies, producing little baby posts with it.
 
Re: Edin Dzeko legend

pudge said:
Dzeko & Hyde said:
pudge said:
That posts proves that stats can be manipulated to prove what the person wants.

And I'm not bashing Dzeko before everyone starts, just highlighting that above point.

-- Jan 3rd, '13, 17:21 --


So Sergio has the best, just good to see the full picture and not half a season.

I only included this season's stats because that's when the "Dzeko has a poor starting record" argument gained popularity.

We do share a common belief though. We both believe that 7 starts is too few to draw any conclusion. So is 10 starts. The sample size is too small. That was the main point of my first post; how quickly stats can turn the other direction when the sample size is too small.

So people should just drop that argument.
I agree he's making that argument void with his recent performances, but before this season it was a valid argument based on his performances.

Much like the 'super sub' argument.

His starting record in league was even better last year. He scored 10 goals in 16 starts last year (.625).

Stop digging.
 
Re: Edin Dzeko legend

Dzeko & Hyde said:
pudge said:
Dzeko & Hyde said:
I only included this season's stats because that's when the "Dzeko has a poor starting record" argument gained popularity.

We do share a common belief though. We both believe that 7 starts is too few to draw any conclusion. So is 10 starts. The sample size is too small. That was the main point of my first post; how quickly stats can turn the other direction when the sample size is too small.

So people should just drop that argument.
I agree he's making that argument void with his recent performances, but before this season it was a valid argument based on his performances.

Much like the 'super sub' argument.

His starting record in league was even better last year. He scored 10 goals in 16 starts last year (.625).

Stop digging.
Digging what?

Does everyone have to have an agenda?

Is it not possible to carry out a discussion on this forum anymore? If I'm wrong I'm wrong, I have no trouble admitting it.
 
Re: Edin Dzeko legend

pudge said:
Dzeko & Hyde said:
pudge said:
I agree he's making that argument void with his recent performances, but before this season it was a valid argument based on his performances.

Much like the 'super sub' argument.

His starting record in league was even better last year. He scored 10 goals in 16 starts last year (.625).

Stop digging.
Digging what?

Does everyone have to have an agenda?

Is it not possible to carry out a discussion on this forum anymore? If I'm wrong I'm wrong, I have no trouble admitting it.

I apologize.
 
Re: Edin Dzeko legend

teddykgb said:
the "super sub" or its corollary that "he can't score when he starts" is and always was complete rubbish. The act of scoring a goal is in and of itself such a rare event with so many events leading up to it that an appropriate sample to somehow determine that a player is only good when coming off the bench is probably measured in years, if not decades, and that would only be valid if the player somehow stayed in the same team with the same setup for that entire duration. It boggles the mind that people somehow bought into an idea that a proven International who has scored goals as a starter throughout his career could somehow only be good off the bench for City because of no reason other than small sample size evidence. It was absolutely elementary thinking and it is, to be honest, embarassing.

In order to even try to posit the hypothesis that Dzeko is best off the bench, you'd have to start by reconciling all his work for his national team and at Wolfsburg, then come up with an actual reason as to why his scoring record off the bench is predictive as opposed to simply a fluctuation in statistics. There aren't a lot of variables that change after 60 minutes of a game has been played aside from fatigue and tactic modification, and in pretty much all cases both are probably influential, but neither would completely explain why a player would be dominant off the bench and lousy as a starter.

To put it another way, any player who is capable of scoring a bunch of goals in a run of games is probably capable of doing it as a starter or as a sub. It will, always, manifest itself in different ways that seem to look like a pattern but are entirely a result of random events. It was a really classic case of correlation leading people to think causality was at play.

You'd then also have to get the data from a representative number of other strikers to see whether Dzeko is any different from other strikers in performing better (if that's the case) coming off the bench. If all strikers score more coming off the bench then the fact that Dzeko does is pretty meaningless.
 
Re: Edin Dzeko legend

Damocles said:
teddykgb said:
the "super sub" or its corollary that "he can't score when he starts" is and always was complete rubbish. The act of scoring a goal is in and of itself such a rare event with so many events leading up to it that an appropriate sample to somehow determine that a player is only good when coming off the bench is probably measured in years, if not decades, and that would only be valid if the player somehow stayed in the same team with the same setup for that entire duration. It boggles the mind that people somehow bought into an idea that a proven International who has scored goals as a starter throughout his career could somehow only be good off the bench for City because of no reason other than small sample size evidence. It was absolutely elementary thinking and it is, to be honest, embarassing.

In order to even try to posit the hypothesis that Dzeko is best off the bench, you'd have to start by reconciling all his work for his national team and at Wolfsburg, then come up with an actual reason as to why his scoring record off the bench is predictive as opposed to simply a fluctuation in statistics. There aren't a lot of variables that change after 60 minutes of a game has been played aside from fatigue and tactic modification, and in pretty much all cases both are probably influential, but neither would completely explain why a player would be dominant off the bench and lousy as a starter.

To put it another way, any player who is capable of scoring a bunch of goals in a run of games is probably capable of doing it as a starter or as a sub. It will, always, manifest itself in different ways that seem to look like a pattern but are entirely a result of random events. It was a really classic case of correlation leading people to think causality was at play.

I like this post so much that I would like to settle down, marry it and live in a log cabin in the Canadian Rockies, producing little baby posts with it.
Feel the same way :)
 

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