EFL Cup - 3rd Round Draw (WBA away)

[BerkshireBlue]

Yes but add 0.5 x 0.5 etc etc and it's a one in 2,000 chance. That's how probability works.

wrong I'm afraid, probability doesn't work like that at all.

The probability of United getting another home game in the next round given they have been drawn at home for 100 times in a row previously is 50%.

now if you asked what are the chances united are drawn at home for the next 2 games on the trot then it would 50%*50%=25%

as soon as the draw is made the result is irrelevant on future predictions as it's an independent event.

 

[unexpected item]

Bent or not, there is another consequence of all these away ties against prem or top championship clubs. And it's this..

It forces us to put out a stronger team than, say, if we had a home draw against Burton Albion.

Which means we have less chance to 'give the kids a go'.

This in turn helps reinforce the narrative that City don't give those kids a chance.

Which feeds down to our academy players who might think "well, I've got no chance of getting in the first team, so I'm not signing that contract".

 

[franksinatra]

It would be so nice to see Frank post on other threads as vigorously as he does every time blues suspect foul play to wards our club.

11 away ties isn't 'bad luck'

Maybe we should lodge a team name change to save the draws some time. I propose for every domestic cup draw we are re-branded "Manchester City Away to..."

To be honest mate when I do see a real grievances like the BBCs comments about Pete the badge I wrote in complaining to them about the treatment numerous times.

Has anyone reported this collusion to the police. Are you going to report this football fixing scandal?

 

[Shirley]

Carabao is the second most popular energy drink in Thailand and the only reason the draw took place in China is to promote the drink in China, they don't really give a fcuk about the draw. Plus what I heard about the draw this morning I doubt they have the brains to try and fix it.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

Bent or not, there is another consequence of all these away ties against prem or top championship clubs. And it's this..

It forces us to put out a stronger team than, say, if we had a home draw against Burton Albion.

Which means we have less chance to 'give the kids a go'.

This in turn helps reinforce the narrative that City don't give those kids a chance.

Which feeds down to our academy players who might think "well, I've got no chance of getting in the first team, so I'm not signing that contract".

Of course it isn't bent, but your point is the only relevant one:

We have to play a stronger team, and travel, which puts more strain on the senior players and gives less chance to the kids.

The caviat is that I'd expect WEst Brom to play a weakened team, and our "reserves" should be more than capable.

 

[SWP's back]

wrong I'm afraid, probability doesn't work like that at all.

The probability of United getting another home game in the next round given they have been drawn at home for 100 times in a row previously is 50%.

now if you asked what are the chances united are drawn at home for the next 2 games on the trot then it would 50%*50%=25%

as soon as the draw is made the result is irrelevant on future predictions as it's an independent event.

What's the probability of 11 in a row?

 

[dronefromsector7G]

How many away daws in a row is it now?

Ten? Bent as fuck.

Wibble

 

[BerkshireBlue]

The probability of getting 11 in a row is 0.048%
now what's the probability of the next game being drawn at home since they've drew 11 at home so far?

 

[SpiritofBurnden]

We've been drawn away to West Ham.

I've complained to the Football League that we've been denied a comfortable route through to the final and a chance to win a trophy, then compete in the Europa League, earn more money, sign better players, win promotion back to the Premier League, sell the club to a billionaire, sign world class players, compete for the title, win the title, compete for the Champions League, win the Champions League...

If only we'd been drawn at home to Doncaster or Bristol Rovers. It's a blatant conspiracy.

 

[franksinatra]

Of course it isn't bent, but your point is the only relevant one:

We have to play a stronger team, and travel, which puts more strain on the senior players and gives less chance to the kids.

The caviat is that I'd expect WEst Brom to play a weakened team, and our "reserves" should be more than capable.

I would expect similar and also as we have loaned a lot of the more eqipped kids to the likes of NEC and Girona it was inevitable some squad members will be involved if we wish to progress. Hopefully Foden and Diaz will be involved but accept the point, dependent upon on how Pep views the competition, it could be less likely.