EFL Cup - 3rd Round Draw (WBA away)

[Prestwich_Blue]

Now take that and throw in the likelihood of 11 consecutive away draws (0.5x0.5x0.5etc for around 0.0004% or a 1/2048 chance) and it's no longer statistically viable to be considered a coincidence.

And that's just away draws against any opposition. If you then say there's a 50% chance of getting a PL or decent Championship team then there's a 1 in 4 chance of being drawn away to one of those teams.

Over 11 draws that's a chance of around 4.2m to 1 to have been given consecutive away draws to decent opposition.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

I would expect similar and also as we have loaned a lot of the more eqipped kids to the likes of NEC and Girona it was inevitable some squad members will be involved if we wish to progress. Hopefully Foden and Diaz will be involved but accept the point, dependent upon on how Pep views the competition, it could be less likely.

The problem from the manager's point of view is the fact that, yes, he needs the kids to be motivated and to see a route through, but he also has a full squad's egos to juggle, and also he needs to assess certain players' need for games or rest for confidence/fitness. It's a tough balancing act because he wants to win every game for his own future. he won't be sacked for not playing enough kids but he will if we don't win anything.

Things are so much easier if you have a home tie against weak opposition.

 

[Eds]

Surely the probability of a home or away tie in any round is one in two i.e. 50:50. But to draw a premier league team depends on how many are left in the draw. So for example in the last eight of the competition we have a 50:50 chance of home or away regardless of whether there are eight balls or two balls to be drawn. However at the beginning of the draw if there is only us and another premier club left we have a 1 in 7 chance of drawing them. If after four balls have been drawn we will have a 1 in three chance of being pitted against them. The odds on 11 away ties on the bounce to premier league teams depends on how many teams were in the draw to start with and how many were left when we were drawn out

 

[MCFC1993]

Wanted this to be a game we could use the kids in, hopefully we can still do that and win. However, considering the media pressure Pep will be under this season he'll want to keep all routes open for a trophy this season. I think he could target this trophy, get some silverware in February and then play the last few months with a bit less pressure on him.

 

[franksinatra]

The problem from the manager's point of view is the fact that, yes, he needs the kids to be motivated and to see a route through, but he also has a full squad's egos to juggle, and also he needs to assess certain players' need for games or rest for confidence/fitness. It's a tough balancing act because he wants to win every game for his own future. he won't be sacked for not playing enough kids but he will if we don't win anything.

Things are so much easier if you have a home tie against weak opposition.

I would not argue with any of that and undoubtedly a home draw would be less problematic.

Just interesting when you see the numbers of kids out on loan how many Pep would wish to introduce at this juncture in their development.

Clearly he thinks Foden, Diaz, Tosin are ready to be introduced into the squad so hopefully those three will get game time. Arguably playing more than that against any opposition would be risky, particularly as the experienced kids like Garcia, Maffeo, Ambrose etc are out on loan.

Personally I hope he will use a sprinkling of those three and a strong pick from the likes of Danilo, Fernandinho, Yaya, Bravo, Sane, maybe Evans to supplement them and provide direction.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I thought it was just me.

To be fair, the place has been left to rot. It doesn't help that the councils are not very good. Walsall MBC is a basket case. I remember when the Chief Exec was sacked by the Leader (political decision). The sacked Chief Exec came back as a grass cutter. The Leader was ousted and the grass cutter came back as Chief Exec! I also remember a councillor secretly recording conversations between council officers in a cafe frequented by officers.

I've had dealings with Walsall MBC and I think it's best I say nothing!!

 

[ultimateharold]

Plus side, cup schemes have been a bargain recently.

 

[franksinatra]

Plus side, cup schemes have been a bargain recently.

Free loyalty points.

 

[wagonman]

Who sodding cares?

If we can't beat WBA away in a cup match then we don't deserve to win the trophy.

JJ

 

[mat]

Who sodding cares?

If we can't beat WBA away in a cup match then we don't deserve to win the trophy.

JJ

I don't think we will beat them. We know Peps attitude to it from the team he put out against the rags last season.

We'll use it a leverage to sign Johnny Fucking Evans.

:)