EU referendum deal (title edited)

[bluethrunthru]

The fifth biggest economy in the world will just be allowed to have parts of it "die"?

That's more fanciful than the reality you're suggesting. There's far too much money at stake by many people across the world who have invested in British businesses to just see it crumble into nothing. There will be desperation, of course, but from those interested and involved parties who will want to retain their earnings, not lose them due to something as petty or simple as a 'trade negotiation", which is even stipulated under EU law that a leaving member must be given a new trade agreement upon leaving, so it's not like they won't be prepared for it, especially if opinion polls appear to swing in favour of an exit coming up to the day of the referendum.

All this talk of "the economy will suffer!" "Security will suffer!" "Jobs will suffer!"; it's scaremongering, the same scaremongering that those on the In side accuse the Leave side of doing. The current facts about British economy on an exit or staying in are that Leave say "It'll be better if we leave!", In say "It'll be worse if we leave!", whereas most economists say "Meh....most likely no change whatsoever."

The things that strike me there are -
1/ Current EU law may state a member that leaves must be given a new trade agreement - does it stipulate one as beneficial as the trade agreement they have as a member? Don't think anybody has actually left yet to put that to the test.
2/ If we vote to leave it won't happen overnight - whats to stop the remaining members deciding that they don't like the idea of other countries deciding to leave and so repeal that law prior to our leaving. Its not as if we would have influence and a voice in Europe to try and prevent it happening

The way I see it we have the existing situation and IF the vote is to remain in we have the chance to integrate with the EU to actually have an influence to stop what we don't want to happen happening rather than standing semi detached on the side lines - so if we know what we have now what exactly does leaving entail - not the broad brush strokes of " oh there is too much money invested here for it to affect us " and " we are the 5th largest economy in the world " - if we leave whats to stop the money thats invested here because we are in the EU migrating to Paris or Frankfurt to stay in the EU and will we remain the 5th largest economy? If we don't - if we get smaller - couldn't that begin a downward spiral?
The exit side rely on the broad brush type statements I have said but never flesh out their argument with how a Britain outside the EU will be able to maintain and even increase its economic security going forward.

My biggest fear is the referendum campaign will he hijacked by the immigration - ISIS - kind of xenophobic argument and people who don't want Asian people on their street will drag the country into an economic mess by effectively voting on the wrong issues.

 

[EalingBlue2]

It is not utter tripe. EU membership binds you to European Court of Human Rights rulings, even though the ECHR is technically not an organ of the EU. However it has a consistent record of backing rapists, child killers and terrorists.

That shows a misunderstanding of how courts work. The Courts don't side with one party or the other they determine whether correct legal process has been followed in how people are tried and convicted. A very important role for anyone unless they have 110% faith in government, police and judiciary which I doubt many do

 

[EalingBlue2]

That really is nonsense particularly suggestion Farage/UKIP have some unholy alliance with Putin. After all UKIP have pledged to look after the armed forces not to render them incapable of being fit for purpose like the Tories have done and Labour would also...policies that are much welcomed by Vlad.

At the moment it is but did a Russian bank closely connected to the regime not just loan the french national front a huge sum that will never be paid and have similar things not just happened with anti European movements in hungary , Poland etc

 

[purplenose]

At the moment it is but did a Russian bank closely connected to the regime not just loan the french national front a huge sum that will never be paid and have similar things not just happened with anti European movements in hungary , Poland etc

Nobody with any sanity would suggest anything other than dodgy dealing when it comes to international politics and banks but lets really not kid ourselves into thinking for one minute our politicians are any less bent than Putin....

 

[Metal Biker]

The things that strike me there are -
1/ Current EU law may state a member that leaves must be given a new trade agreement - does it stipulate one as beneficial as the trade agreement they have as a member? Don't think anybody has actually left yet to put that to the test.
2/ If we vote to leave it won't happen overnight - whats to stop the remaining members deciding that they don't like the idea of other countries deciding to leave and so repeal that law prior to our leaving. Its not as if we would have influence and a voice in Europe to try and prevent it happening

The way I see it we have the existing situation and IF the vote is to remain in we have the chance to integrate with the EU to actually have an influence to stop what we don't want to happen happening rather than standing semi detached on the side lines - so if we know what we have now what exactly does leaving entail - not the broad brush strokes of " oh there is too much money invested here for it to affect us " and " we are the 5th largest economy in the world " - if we leave whats to stop the money thats invested here because we are in the EU migrating to Paris or Frankfurt to stay in the EU and will we remain the 5th largest economy? If we don't - if we get smaller - couldn't that begin a downward spiral?
The exit side rely on the broad brush type statements I have said but never flesh out their argument with how a Britain outside the EU will be able to maintain and even increase its economic security going forward.

My biggest fear is the referendum campaign will he hijacked by the immigration - ISIS - kind of xenophobic argument and people who don't want Asian people on their street will drag the country into an economic mess by effectively voting on the wrong issues.

1) A trade agreement has to be agreed by both parties upon leaving. With the Eurozone in a tenuous state, and the UK their largest trading partner, they'll want to get the trade issue, if there is one, sorted out.

2) They can't repeal the law to leave; it was stipulated as part of our agreement to join, as is also the right of every European nation. They might do in the future with other nations, that's not for me to say, but just think about what you're saying; you're theorising that the EU could, if they wanted, repeal a right for nations to leave what was initially an optional union. Sounds more like totalitarianism that a beneficial union to me.

On the issue of money, the City of London houses dozens of businesses from all over the world, not just in the EU. Being in The City allows these businesses access to the Eurozone, BRICS and the US. They won't need to leave anywhere because The City isn't part of the UK. It'd make no sense for them to leave the UK, now an independent trading partner, free to trade not only with the EU but all over the world. Could it work, maybe, maybe not but it's not exactly a gamble since everyone would stand to lose. Like a house of cards, one falls, they all fall. Unlike the Norway comparison, the fact that Britain has strong trading links and is the 5th biggest economy in the world, now 2nd largest in Europe, is a MAJOR factor. They said the UK would be doomed if it didn't join the Euro. Didn't happen, quite the opposite in fact. The EU are petrified if the UK leaves.

The EU debate comes down to two types of people; forget immigration, forget ISIL, forget the economy. There are those who want Europe to be like the United Nations; working, trading together independently of each other with no one passing laws in another nation state, and those who want Europe to be like the United States, except we'd have an unelected Commission (like the House of Lords) making up legislations that we'd have to abide by. They WANT a European Superstate; a Europe where the democratic process is removed from the public, a Europe which wants to build an EU Army, has it's own flag and anthem and wishes you to adopt an identity of "European". That is not the Europe we were sold, nor do the people of Europe want. I adore the cultural diversity of the individual nations of Europe. The EU Commission abhores them because it gets in the way of them doing business.

The EU as it stands now is NOT the finished article. We have been told by the EU President and the French president that "The UK must agree to MORE EU integration, or leave. Simple as that." We're not the only nation which is against more integration with the EU. Then there's the matter of TTIP, which again, is wholly unpopular but the EU Commission is pressing ahead with it regardless. Not to mention their other farcial attempts of 'democratic process'; the Irish Vote, the Dutch Vote, the French Vote. This Europe is no longer the EEC we all wanted but something much more corrupt, and its building into something that genuinely worries me. We wanted reform, they refused, so I no longer wish to be a part of such a corrupt organisation.

The late Tony Benn, once a champion of Britain's membership of Europe, had this to say about the European "Union".

 

[EalingBlue2]

Nobody with any sanity would suggest anything other than dodgy dealing when it comes to international politics and banks but lets really not kid ourselves into thinking for one minute our politicians are any less bent than Putin....

I doubt the entire parliament combined could get close to Putin in being bent or have the intelligence or brilliance to do it half as well or have half the power

 

[denislawsbackheel]

It is not utter tripe. EU membership binds you to European Court of Human Rights rulings, even though the ECHR is technically not an organ of the EU. However it has a consistent record of backing rapists, child killers and terrorists.

Keep digging, your uninformed childish ignorance will soon bury you.

 

[hgblue]

1) A trade agreement has to be agreed by both parties upon leaving. With the Eurozone in a tenuous state, and the UK their largest trading partner, they'll want to get the trade issue, if there is one, sorted out.

2) They can't repeal the law to leave; it was stipulated as part of our agreement to join, as is also the right of every European nation. They might do in the future with other nations, that's not for me to say, but just think about what you're saying; you're theorising that the EU could, if they wanted, repeal a right for nations to leave what was initially an optional union. Sounds more like totalitarianism that a beneficial union to me.

On the issue of money, the City of London houses dozens of businesses from all over the world, not just in the EU. Being in The City allows these businesses access to the Eurozone, BRICS and the US. They won't need to leave anywhere because The City isn't part of the UK. It'd make no sense for them to leave the UK, now an independent trading partner, free to trade not only with the EU but all over the world. Could it work, maybe, maybe not but it's not exactly a gamble since everyone would stand to lose. Like a house of cards, one falls, they all fall. Unlike the Norway comparison, the fact that Britain has strong trading links and is the 5th biggest economy in the world, now 2nd largest in Europe, is a MAJOR factor. They said the UK would be doomed if it didn't join the Euro. Didn't happen, quite the opposite in fact. The EU are petrified if the UK leaves.

The EU debate comes down to two types of people; forget immigration, forget ISIL, forget the economy. There are those who want Europe to be like the United Nations; working, trading together independently of each other with no one passing laws in another nation state, and those who want Europe to be like the United States, except we'd have an unelected Commission (like the House of Lords) making up legislations that we'd have to abide by. They WANT a European Superstate; a Europe where the democratic process is removed from the public, a Europe which wants to build an EU Army, has it's own flag and anthem and wishes you to adopt an identity of "European". That is not the Europe we were sold, nor do the people of Europe want. I adore the cultural diversity of the individual nations of Europe. The EU Commission abhores them because it gets in the way of them doing business.

The EU as it stands now is NOT the finished article. We have been told by the EU President and the French president that "The UK must agree to MORE EU integration, or leave. Simple as that." We're not the only nation which is against more integration with the EU. Then there's the matter of TTIP, which again, is wholly unpopular but the EU Commission is pressing ahead with it regardless. Not to mention their other farcial attempts of 'democratic process'; the Irish Vote, the Dutch Vote, the French Vote. This Europe is no longer the EEC we all wanted but something much more corrupt, and its building into something that genuinely worries me. We wanted reform, they refused, so I no longer wish to be a part of such a corrupt organisation.

The late Tony Benn, once a champion of Britain's membership of Europe, had this to say about the European "Union".

Well said Tony Benn, I don't share his politics but I always respected his integrity. The leave side isn't anti Europe, it's anti the way Europe has developed. We finally have the opportunity to restore democracy and show some leadership, which is an opportunity I hope we don't waste on petty squabbling about the fine detail of Cameron's so called reforms which are so trivial as to be irrelevant to the much wider debate that needs to happen. Is the EU democratic? Do we want independant nations to be forced into introducing policies it's citizens don't want? Do we want our parliament to be sovereign? These are big issues and taking benefits off migrants doesn't even register on my radar of things that need addressing.

 

[purplenose]

I doubt the entire parliament combined could get close to Putin in being bent or have the intelligence or brilliance to do it half as well or have half the power

Haha I would dispute the first part but the second i suspect is very true!

 

[mat]

My biggest fear is the referendum campaign will he hijacked by the immigration - ISIS - kind of xenophobic argument and people who don't want Asian people on their street will drag the country into an economic mess by effectively voting on the wrong issues.

Sadly this will happen. Dirty Desmond,Nazi Rothermere and Uncle Rupert will perpetuate this myth whilst blowing smoke up Farage's arse and Call me Daves PR fear offensive.

 

[Dave Ewing's Back 'eader]

This is not a deal. This is a fudge. Cameron going all round the show, coming back with nowt and telling us he got everything he asked for! I would trust Cameron as much as I would trust any politician. On a scale of 0-10 I'm on -49!

 

[mat]

This is not a deal. This is a fudge. Cameron going all round the show, coming back with nowt and telling us he got everything he asked for! I would trust Cameron as much as I would trust any politician. On a scale of 0-10 I'm on -49!

He's used the country for his own parties needs. This is an attempt to appease them over anything else.

 

[cibaman]

I think the strongest reason for leaving the EU is that its become a completely unwieldy institution, incapable of sensible decision making. 28 diverse countries pulling in different directions.

But that's also the reason why I think it would be impossible for the UK to negotiate a favourable trade deal post Brexit. If the UK were negotiating with a completely integrated EU then money would prevail. The imperative to avoid negative trade consequences would be paramount. But that's not what will happen. The UK will ostensibly negotiate with the EU, but in reality will have to negotiate a deal that is acceptable to all of the other 27 countries. And those 27 countries all have their internal political considerations.

The northern EU countries such as Germany & France will be heavily leaned on by their big exporting companies. Money will be their primary consideration. But its not the be all and end all. Trade with the UK comprises roughly 8% of their exports, a sizeable amount but not critical. They will face huge internal political pressures from voters who will be aghast at the prospect of the UK escaping its obligations to the EU whilst retaining favourable trading links.

For other EU countries, especially those in eastern Europe, trade just isn't as big deal as free movement of labour, They would happily veto a deal that allowed the UK to impose restrictions on EU immigration or curtailed benefits payments.

Add to the mix the EU bureaucrats who will be desperate to avoid contagion, other EU countries seeing that the UK is prospering outside of the EU and deciding to do the same,

In the end there will be a trade deal. But not a good one.

 

[Dave Ewing's Back 'eader]

i would like to read, preferably contained within half a sheet of A4, exactly what the benefits are in belonging to an organisation for which we seem to be paying not just through the noise but every other bodily orifice! And the other half of the sheet could contain the downside and if we are, commercially and economically, gonna see the raw arse of a Lithuanian winter for twelve months a year were we to fuck Europe off!!

 

[hgblue]

I think the strongest reason for leaving the EU is that its become a completely unwieldy institution, incapable of sensible decision making. 28 diverse countries pulling in different directions.

But that's also the reason why I think it would be impossible for the UK to negotiate a favourable trade deal post Brexit. If the UK were negotiating with a completely integrated EU then money would prevail. The imperative to avoid negative trade consequences would be paramount. But that's not what will happen. The UK will ostensibly negotiate with the EU, but in reality will have to negotiate a deal that is acceptable to all of the other 27 countries. And those 27 countries all have their internal political considerations.

The northern EU countries such as Germany & France will be heavily leaned on by their big exporting companies. Money will be their primary consideration. But its not the be all and end all. Trade with the UK comprises roughly 8% of their exports, a sizeable amount but not critical. They will face huge internal political pressures from voters who will be aghast at the prospect of the UK escaping its obligations to the EU whilst retaining favourable trading links.

For other EU countries, especially those in eastern Europe, trade just isn't as big deal as free movement of labour, They would happily veto a deal that allowed the UK to impose restrictions on EU immigration or curtailed benefits payments.

Add to the mix the EU bureaucrats who will be desperate to avoid contagion, other EU countries seeing that the UK is prospering outside of the EU and deciding to do the same,

In the end there will be a trade deal. But not a good one.

This argument always makes me smile. Leaving the EU is such a good idea that the rest of the EU can't afford for it to succeed. Doesn't sound like an organisation worth protecting to me.

 

[mat]

i would like to read, preferably contained within half a sheet of A4, exactly what the benefits are in belonging to an organisation for which we seem to be paying not just through the noise but every other bodily orifice! And the other half of the sheet could contain the downside and if we are, commercially and economically, gonna see the raw arse of a Lithuanian winter for twelve months a year were we to fuck Europe off!!

To be honest I think we all would like a layman guide for both sides rather than the fudged pseudo intellectual crap we'll get.

 

[Mike N]

Bogus election and bogus 'concessions'.

 

[cibaman]

This argument always makes me smile. Leaving the EU is such a good idea that the rest of the EU can't afford for it to succeed. Doesn't sound like an organisation worth protecting to me.

It isnt

 

[BimboBob]

We vote to leave and it will take years to untangle ourselves from all the red tape and rules we are obliged by law to follow.

Stay in and we become even more entwined in the EU.


Hmmmmm...

 

[whp.blue]

We vote to leave and it will take years to untangle ourselves from all the red tape and rules we are obliged by law to follow.

Stay in and we become even more entwined in the EU.


Hmmmmm...

At least leaving will be a short term pain and we take our own future back. The last thing this country needs is to be lost in some sort of European super state run for the French and Germans benefit.