EU referendum

[Monkfish]

I think you'll find (very rounded figures) we contribute £20bn, receive back £9bn therefore rounded net contribution is circa, £11bn. Even if it was as small a figure as £2bn, it's money we don't have, that we're having to pay for through tough austerity measures. You have to recognise why people will focus on this and question it. It would be strange if they didn't, would it not?

Almost true, we never actually pay the 20bn (or whatever)so we don't really get it back either

If the contribution to the eu is so important why do so many in the leave camp have no idea how much it is?

 

[Monkfish]

I believe the net figure is about 8.5 billion cost to be in the EU.
The most basic question is do we receive 8.5 billion worth of benefit being in the EU?

Yep this Is the question, now if we could just remove the made up stuff from both sides we may get somewhere...

 

[BigJoe#1]

Almost true, we never actually pay the 20bn (or whatever)so we don't really get it back either

If the contribution to the eu is so important why do so many in the leave camp have no idea how much it is?

Fair question.... The truth is does anyone even in government have a clue... really? I suspect not. The in camp aren't trying to defend the position are they? I think it is safe to say that we probably contribute more than we get out.

 

[Monkfish]

Fair question.... The truth is does anyone even in government have a clue... really? I suspect not. The in camp aren't trying to defend the position are they? I think it is safe to say that we probably contribute more than we get out.

In actual terms of contribution to the European coffee r s there is no argument we pay in, what those who want to stay would argue is that the benefits far outweigh the net contribution

 

[BigJoe#1]

In actual terms of contribution to the European coffee r s there is no argument we pay in, what those who want to stay would argue is that the benefits far outweigh the net contribution

But just like them outers need to say what out will look like, the inners need to quantify these benefits... Neither is easy to do.

 

[EalingBlue2]

As nice as it would be to compartmentalise all these issues into individual boxes I'm afraid I have news for you. You can't, they are all interwoven and cannot be discussed and dealt with in isolation.

They can't but nor can you drag in problems caused by US, Russia, Saudi, France and Britain and blame them on the EU or on Germany and Greece.
At the moment the rest of Europe is dealing with a humanitarian crisis they had a little prt in causing and we had a big part and it is us complaining. I think the actual anger should be going the other way and were I Germany or Greece I'd be livid at what I was paying for because of US, French and British aggression

 

[EalingBlue2]

You general is far too much.

I was responding to generalisation (I assume you meant that)

 

[EalingBlue2]

.

Yet if you care to look at what HAS happened in say norfolk, the flood of migrants ( Not refugee`s)are mainly agricultural field workers who came in willing to work for as little £2 an hour, destroying the jobs market for the locals, its no good blaming the farmer who could cut his wage bill drastically, yet not only is no tax & ni being paid ( A direct loss to the country) because the farmer pays the gang master, but we have to pay dole money & benefits to have our own people sit on their arse ( a further loss).

This is repeated in most agricultural area`s in the uk, with the added problem of gangs of foreign young men occupying houses in the cheapest area`s ( Adding to the housing shortage) while sending back what to them is good money home to their families ( Another loss to the country).

No doubt some will get ill or injured, using hospital services and GPs they have not paid one penny towards, most market towns are like a war zone at w/ends with trouble between them and the locals, so the police/ambulance services are used.

This does not even bother looking at long term problems, a lot of them will do it for so long then go home to the house they have bought with the money, only to be replaced by the next wave.

This is the poorer moving into the far wealthier country`s poorer area`s and decimating it, if the local economy is falling then the area suffers.

That is capitalism, pure and simple. You either believe in it or you don't. I can see why those in the unions and on the left would abhor this I cannot see how anyone else can complain

 

[hgblue]

I think the outies have the advantage that emotionally, no-one likes being told what to do; no-one likes being told that the rules are being made my someone else and they are powerless to do anything about it; and no-one like bureaucrats, red tape and stupid nonsense rules.

So emotionally, there's lots of reasons to leave. Your heart says leave.

But taking emotion out of it, and thinking about it objectively, it's a completely different decision (and one where my mind is genuinely not made up). On the one hand you have the fact the EU is an inward facing, bureaucratic nightmare, strangled with needless red tape, regulation, inefficiency. And with member states teetering on the brink of bankruptcy - states like Italy, Spain and even France - which if they were to topple over, would take the whole of the EU with them since there isn't enough liquidity available to keep them afloat.

Then on the other hand you have the prospect of leaving and at a stroke, putting > 50% of our entire exports at grave risk. I hear people say "but the EU exports more to us than they do to them". Well that's a fucking idiotic argument and a sham. Why? Because,

1. Our imports are from 27 member states, who in principle only stand to lose 1/27th where we stand to lose the whole bloody thing. WIth no trade agreement in place, our economy tanks for the foreseeable future. We are talking 10 years of recession. If we have no trade agreement, do you think Latvia caress as much about their loss of exports to the UK? No, of course they don't.

2. The largest proportion of our imports (the EU's exports) are from Germany who could perhaps be persuaded into a free-trade agreement with us, since they have a lot to lose. But what about the other 26 states? A tariff-free trade agreement would need the support of all 27 member states, including some who export fuck all to us, and wouldn't give a shit if they slapped a +20% import duty on UK goods. in fact they'd welcome it, they'd be happy to give us the two finger salute for walking out on them. They'd also lap up the prospect of protecting their domestic market from unfair "cheap" competion from the UK.

Seriously, does anyone REALLY think the French would allow us unfettered access to their market without strings attached? The French? Really? Not a fucking prayer. They would block it as sure as eggs is eggs. Other states would block it because if they didn't, they'd be worried that other countries might "do a UK" and also leave. In short there is no reason to believe a favourable trade agreement could be negotiated any time soon, if ever.

The very likely outcome is that in order to secure agreement, we'd have to sign up to a load of shite such as the working time directive, the supremecy of the european court of human rights and other such garbage that we are so keen to get away from. And we'd have export duties and restrictions and we'd have no voting power regards any of the shite we are forced to sign up to.

So our options are stay in, and be tied to a generally corrupt, underperforming, ragbag collection of near bankrupt states. Or to leave and in all certainly ruin our economy for the next 10 years.

Some choice eh.

There's zero chance of a trade deal not being agreed between Britian and the EU if we leave, nobody credible believes this won't happen, we buy far too much French wine and cheese and expensive German cars, and the Eurozone is in enough trouble as it is without committing suicide via a self indulgent trade war with Britain. The argument is around what kind of trade deal. Norway? Switzerland? Canada? Or a bespoke deal that reflects the fact that Britain is the EUs most important export market.

 

[Monkfish]

There's zero chance of a trade deal not being agreed between Britian and the EU if we leave, nobody credible believes this won't happen, we buy far too much French wine and cheese and expensive German cars, and the Eurozone is in enough trouble as it is without committing suicide via a self indulgent trade war with Britain. The argument is around what kind of trade deal. Norway? Switzerland? Canada? Or a bespoke deal that reflects the fact that Britain is the EUs most important export market.

Or they will close all the borders, deny use of their airspace and bring the UK to its knees until Prime Minister Boris and Chancellor Farage go begging to the court of Merkel to be allowed back in...