EU referendum

[cibaman]

So you don't think there will be any pressure from the big guns of Germany and France on the little ones to step in line? If Lithuania decide to really fuck up the revenue of the likes of BMW and Mercedes, I don't think they're going to do well out of other EU treaties/deals...

I don't think that Germany believes that BMW's revenues will ultimately be affected.

The most likely scenario for me is that, shortly after a Leave vote, Boris will demand that the EU offers the UK a free trade treaty, without any conditions such as a contribution to the EU budget or adherence to any EU directives, especially the free movement of labour. The EU will politely inform him that the only deal possible would be a Norway style arrangement. There will then be a Mexican Standoff which will last for most of the next two years. Eventually the EU will start planning to impose tariffs. At this point a vote will be taken in the House of Commons proposing that, since that Boris has failed to deliver the favourable trade deal that was promised before the referendum, a second referendum is necessary. Given that the majority of MPs are pro EU, they will seize any excuse to trigger a second referendum.

The minute that the UK votes to leave, the EU's primary objective will be to force a second referendum. They will not jeopardise that objective by agreeing a favourable trade deal.

 

[Moriati]

• The mess created by EC meddling in Ukraine continues to have bad consequences. It’s bad enough that The IMF has warned the failure to address endemic graft risks sinking a $17.5 billion bailout. Now it emerges why Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko was in Ankara on March 9: for a high-level strategic cooperation council meeting as the guest of President Recep Erdoğan…only three weeks after Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu paid a snap visit to Kiev.
  On the same day as Davutoğlu was in Kiev to hold talks with Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, Ukrainian Chief of General Staff Viktor Muzhenko met with his Turkish counterpart Gen. Hulusi Akar, in a sign of intensified military and defense relations. The two presidents chaired the council meeting with the participation of their countries’ foreign, defense, trade and energy ministers in order to shape a new phase in bilateral political and economic relations…given they share €4.5bn in trade, hardly surprising. So that’s one more Erdogan thorn in the side of the EU’s Eastern empire.
• Britain will have little or no say over decisions made in a European Union increasingly dominated by German interests, Iceland’s prime minister Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson asserted yesterday. The UK, he added, will wield “diminishing power” in institutions still under the sway of the Franco-German alliance: “When it comes to the big stuff the decisions are made by two, and increasingly one, country. Others are called to meetings to approve of what has been decided, if not in the afternoon then during the middle of the night. This seems to have become the standard way of doing things in Brussels”

Courtesy of John Ward - The Slog

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2016/0...n-the-dark-is-better-than-taking-a-back-seat/

 

[CityStu]

I don't think that Germany believes that BMW's revenues will ultimately be affected.

The most likely scenario for me is that, shortly after a Leave vote, Boris will demand that the EU offers the UK a free trade treaty, without any conditions such as a contribution to the EU budget or adherence to any EU directives, especially the free movement of labour. The EU will politely inform him that the only deal possible would be a Norway style arrangement. There will then be a Mexican Standoff which will last for most of the next two years. Eventually the EU will start planning to impose tariffs. At this point a vote will be taken in the House of Commons proposing that, since that Boris has failed to deliver the favourable trade deal that was promised before the referendum, a second referendum is necessary. Given that the majority of MPs are pro EU, they will seize any excuse to trigger a second referendum.

The minute that the UK votes to leave, the EU's primary objective will be to force a second referendum. They will not jeopardise that objective by agreeing a favourable trade deal.

I think most outers would quite like a second referendum if we do leave. Cameron's negotiations were destined for failure because he didn't want to leave the EU, whereas a referendum to come back in, with someone like Boris at the helm, would immediately give us a stronger footing for actual reform. I don't think anyone minds the concept of the common market so a referendum deal that returned us to that state would be fine IMO.

 

[BigJoe#1]

I am an outer and do not seek a second referendum.

Cameron has delivered very little in terms of changes. Going forward, if we vote to stay I am concerned that any changes we wish to have will be subject to getting support from others nations and I don't think that support can or will be guaranteed.

It is a poor compromise.

As for trade.... Germany would not want us to apply sanctions or taxes to their exports to us. A smooth trade transition and compromise will be found as it will soon be realised that no one will benefit from setting additional tariffs. It should be noted that today we are quite influential in the way things are done in Europe, they really don't want us to leave.

 

[hgblue]

I don't think that Germany believes that BMW's revenues will ultimately be affected.

The most likely scenario for me is that, shortly after a Leave vote, Boris will demand that the EU offers the UK a free trade treaty, without any conditions such as a contribution to the EU budget or adherence to any EU directives, especially the free movement of labour. The EU will politely inform him that the only deal possible would be a Norway style arrangement. There will then be a Mexican Standoff which will last for most of the next two years. Eventually the EU will start planning to impose tariffs. At this point a vote will be taken in the House of Commons proposing that, since that Boris has failed to deliver the favourable trade deal that was promised before the referendum, a second referendum is necessary. Given that the majority of MPs are pro EU, they will seize any excuse to trigger a second referendum.

The minute that the UK votes to leave, the EU's primary objective will be to force a second referendum. They will not jeopardise that objective by agreeing a favourable trade deal.

I just nearly fell off my chair when I read your first sentence. Do you know how many brand new German cars were sold in the UK last year?

For what it's worth I actually agree with you that a second referendum would happen if we vote to leave, although I don't agree with your reasoning behind how this would come about. It suits neither camp for this to be aired as a possibility though, which is why Boris was forced to change his tune when he mooted it as a possible outcome. Remain know that a great many people who intend to vote Remain unenthusiastically, would more than likely vote Leave if they thought a serious renegotiation and second referendum would follow. Leave, on the other hand, are unwilling to create a hostage to fortune by mentioning this and it would create a major split between those who want out almost regardless and those who would be happy to stay in a fully reformed EU.

If the UK votes to leave, then the serious business of attempting to resolve Britain's issues with the EU can begin with the British side having the major clout that a popular mandate to leave would bring.

 

[EalingBlue2]

because we haven't got full capitalism have we. We have a welfare state and regulations and the above example is wholly illegal.

Then you should be complaining about the UK government because those are the result of the wonderful Attlee government a wholly sovereign UK government well before the EU existed .

 

[EalingBlue2]

Funny you dont mention Russian aggression when we both know they've had a larger hand in it than anyone.

And the Germans are thrilled. That's why they've taken in 2 million.

This is an EU thread so I am focused on the EU. Clearly the US, Saudi , Iran, and in the case of Syria - Russia have played a big part and much higher prt than the uk and France . But the origins of ISIS lie more in Iraq than Syria so I wouldn't blame Russia anymore than I'd blame the post 911 coalition.

It just seems to me the UK, France (and a couple of other EU countries) are very involved and responsible and we expect Greece and Germany to carry the can for us

 

[EalingBlue2]

Our power in negotiations will come from the fact that we buy far more from them than we sell them, and we can buy our cars from Japan and our wine from South Africa if they decided to get shitty with us. This would stuff the Eurozone and they know it, so it just won't happen because self interest will previal over revenge.

I hope you are right in the event that it happens but recent world history , indeed most world history is littered by the tragedy of revenge which is a far more powerful motivator than self interest. As when humanity is bent on revenge it has no real idea or reason about what self interest is.

 

[SWP's back]

Then you should be complaining about the UK government because those are the result of the wonderful Attlee government a wholly sovereign UK government well before the EU existed .

No. Because I'm a realist rather than a fucking idiot taking things out of context to try and "win" an argument on a forum.

 

[SWP's back]

This is an EU thread so I am focused on the EU. Clearly the US, Saudi , Iran, and in the case of Syria - Russia have played a big part and much higher prt than the uk and France . But the origins of ISIS lie more in Iraq than Syria so I wouldn't blame Russia anymore than I'd blame the post 911 coalition.

It just seems to me the UK, France (and a couple of other EU countries) are very involved and responsible and we expect Greece and Germany to carry the can for us

Why not go back and blame the Germans for starting the Second World War then and creating the destabilised Middle East and North Africa?