EU referendum

[Chancy Termites]

Funny how people are taking pot-shots at the IMF's warnings on A Brexit. Wonder if those same people would be criticising them if they had come out and said a Brexit would be good for the world economy?

I can only speak for myself; the IMF exists for the benefit of banks, so whether they say it's a good thing or a bad thing if we leave, they're thinking about how it will affect the banking industry.

It will be easier to bail out France and Germany's banks' failed loans to Greece if the UK helps to pay.

 

[stonerblue]

They're fingers in the air because the forecasters don't know what the future relationship will be between the EU and the UK and are making different assumptions. For example, Oxford Economics' estimate of -0.10% assumes a continuing close relationship similar to Norway (including retaining free movement of labour). Their -3.90% forecast is based on the assumption that no deal is struck and we're into tariffs. Until we know where we will end up on that spectrum, the economists are bound to produce widely varying estimates.

That's one of the fundamental problems of the referendum. Nobody really knows what they are voting for.

Said this on page 1 or 2 of this thread and was roundly criticised. Still true after 6 weeks of me reading up on the pro's and cons of membership. There is no clear, simple or un-biased info out there that i can find.

 

[blueinsa]

Said this on page 1 or 2 of this thread and was roundly criticised. Still true after 6 weeks of me reading up on the pro's and cons of membership. There is no clear, simple or un-biased info out there that i can find.

You wont find any either, the system doesn't want you to find facts out.

 

[blueonblue]

Rather than trying to second guess what may or may not happen on exit look what we face if we are daft enough to stay in.

Do you trust the EU ?, its being swamped with migrants by the million while suffering an economic downturn to the point that we are getting floods of people from southern and eastern Europe coming here.
Spain, Portugal and Italy were considered prosperous countries yet close to 200,000 have packed up and moved here in less than four years, assuming they have some skills that reduces their countries income ( And the ability to service its debts) while also reducing ours by taking jobs and increasing the dole bill/strain on services.
Same with Poland,Hungary, and Romania adding close to 500,000 to that number with the same results.

So who will pay in the end if these countries start defaulting ?, the EU ignored its own rules to bail out Greece saddling the members with the bill.

 

[Helmet Cole]

Join poor countries to wealthy countries economically and it stands to reason there will be a flow of people to the wealthy bits, which will in turn have to prop up/bailout the poor bits until a balance is found. If you live in a rich bit things will get worse and if you live in a poor bit things will get better. As the UK is apparently the worlds fifth largest economy, it stands to reason that we will be losers on the way to equilibrium.

 

[urmston]

By world standards there are no poor countries in the EU.

So why should we send other EU countries £25 million per day of our money?

Vote Leave and we won't have to.

 

[cibaman]

Said this on page 1 or 2 of this thread and was roundly criticised. Still true after 6 weeks of me reading up on the pro's and cons of membership. There is no clear, simple or un-biased info out there that i can find.

You're not likely to find out. Ultimately it comes down to speculating about what the future might bring. One of the biggest areas of uncertainty is just who will be running the government, if the referendum result is to leave, and who will be leading any Brexit negotiations. The official line is that Cameron will stay and lead the negotiations, which would be likely to result in a continuing relatively close relationship with the EU. I think Cameron will be out on his ear, Boris will take over and many of the existing cabinet will resign or be sacked. We'll have two years of chaos as Boris fails to agree a deal with the EU before a 2nd referendum sees us staying.

 

[hgblue]

You're not likely to find out. Ultimately it comes down to speculating about what the future might bring. One of the biggest areas of uncertainty is just who will be running the government, if the referendum result is to leave, and who will be leading any Brexit negotiations. The official line is that Cameron will stay and lead the negotiations, which would be likely to result in a continuing relatively close relationship with the EU. I think Cameron will be out on his ear, Boris will take over and many of the existing cabinet will resign or be sacked. We'll have two years of chaos as Boris fails to agree a deal with the EU before a 2nd referendum sees us staying.

I disagree. I think a vote to leave will lead to some serious negotiations with the British side having a much stronger hand than Cameron had with his recent sorry attempt. I happen to agree with you that the likes of Gove and Johnson aren't really ardent Outers, and if the EU were to move significantly in the direction of returning sovereignty and reducing red tape, they may well put any deal they get before the British people in a second referendum. Alternatively, we negotiate a mutually beneficial trading arrangement and wish them well. Personally I'm not fussed either way.

 

[jimbopm]

Join poor countries to wealthy countries economically and it stands to reason there will be a flow of people to the wealthy bits, which will in turn have to prop up/bailout the poor bits until a balance is found. If you live in a rich bit things will get worse and if you live in a poor bit things will get better. As the UK is apparently the worlds fifth largest economy, it stands to reason that we will be losers on the way to equilibrium.

I'm sorry but that is absolute tosh and does not stand up to the facts. In 1970, 3 years before joining the EEC, the UK was the 3rd largest economy in Europe behind West Germany and France and barely ahead of Italy. We are now the 2nd largest economy in Europe and we are predicted to be on the verge of catching up Germany by 2020 (IMF).

How exactly are we trending towards becoming losers?

 

[coleridge]

I'm sorry but that is absolute tosh and does not stand up to the facts. In 1970, 3 years before joining the EEC, the UK was the 3rd largest economy in Europe behind West Germany and France and barely ahead of Italy. We are now the 2nd largest economy in Europe and we are predicted to be on the verge of catching up Germany by 2020 (IMF).

How exactly have we trending towards becoming losers?

Indeed. However, the conspiracy theories will go on for reasons unknown.