Funny how people are taking pot-shots at the IMF's warnings on A Brexit. Wonder if those same people would be criticising them if they had come out and said a Brexit would be good for the world economy?
They're fingers in the air because the forecasters don't know what the future relationship will be between the EU and the UK and are making different assumptions. For example, Oxford Economics' estimate of -0.10% assumes a continuing close relationship similar to Norway (including retaining free movement of labour). Their -3.90% forecast is based on the assumption that no deal is struck and we're into tariffs. Until we know where we will end up on that spectrum, the economists are bound to produce widely varying estimates.
That's one of the fundamental problems of the referendum. Nobody really knows what they are voting for.
Said this on page 1 or 2 of this thread and was roundly criticised. Still true after 6 weeks of me reading up on the pro's and cons of membership. There is no clear, simple or un-biased info out there that i can find.
Said this on page 1 or 2 of this thread and was roundly criticised. Still true after 6 weeks of me reading up on the pro's and cons of membership. There is no clear, simple or un-biased info out there that i can find.
I disagree. I think a vote to leave will lead to some serious negotiations with the British side having a much stronger hand than Cameron had with his recent sorry attempt. I happen to agree with you that the likes of Gove and Johnson aren't really ardent Outers, and if the EU were to move significantly in the direction of returning sovereignty and reducing red tape, they may well put any deal they get before the British people in a second referendum. Alternatively, we negotiate a mutually beneficial trading arrangement and wish them well. Personally I'm not fussed either way.You're not likely to find out. Ultimately it comes down to speculating about what the future might bring. One of the biggest areas of uncertainty is just who will be running the government, if the referendum result is to leave, and who will be leading any Brexit negotiations. The official line is that Cameron will stay and lead the negotiations, which would be likely to result in a continuing relatively close relationship with the EU. I think Cameron will be out on his ear, Boris will take over and many of the existing cabinet will resign or be sacked. We'll have two years of chaos as Boris fails to agree a deal with the EU before a 2nd referendum sees us staying.
Join poor countries to wealthy countries economically and it stands to reason there will be a flow of people to the wealthy bits, which will in turn have to prop up/bailout the poor bits until a balance is found. If you live in a rich bit things will get worse and if you live in a poor bit things will get better. As the UK is apparently the worlds fifth largest economy, it stands to reason that we will be losers on the way to equilibrium.
Indeed. However, the conspiracy theories will go on for reasons unknown.I'm sorry but that is absolute tosh and does not stand up to the facts. In 1970, 3 years before joining the EEC, the UK was the 3rd largest economy in Europe behind West Germany and France and barely ahead of Italy. We are now the 2nd largest economy in Europe and we are predicted to be on the verge of catching up Germany by 2020 (IMF).
How exactly have we trending towards becoming losers?
Rather than trying to second guess what may or may not happen on exit look what we face if we are daft enough to stay in.
Do you trust the EU ?, its being swamped with migrants by the million while suffering an economic downturn to the point that we are getting floods of people from southern and eastern Europe coming here.
Spain, Portugal and Italy were considered prosperous countries yet close to 200,000 have packed up and moved here in less than four years, assuming they have some skills that reduces their countries income ( And the ability to service its debts) while also reducing ours by taking jobs and increasing the dole bill/strain on services.
Same with Poland,Hungary, and Romania adding close to 500,000 to that number with the same results.
So who will pay in the end if these countries start defaulting ?, the EU ignored its own rules to bail out Greece saddling the members with the bill.
Because some countries are net contributors to the EU and some are net recipients - either in terms of cash to brussels , benefits paid, and probably other factors. Germany like ourselves probably is a net contributor and similarly disadvantaged in this way. I notice you find it convenient to mention our economy related to only other EU nations and not the global economy. I'm sure you have your reasons ;-)I'm sorry but that is absolute tosh and does not stand up to the facts. In 1970, 3 years before joining the EEC, the UK was the 3rd largest economy in Europe behind West Germany and France and barely ahead of Italy. We are now the 2nd largest economy in Europe and we are predicted to be on the verge of catching up Germany by 2020 (IMF).
How exactly are we trending towards becoming losers?
Because some countries are net contributors to the EU and some are net recipients - either in terms of cash to brussels , benefits paid, and probably other factors. Germany like ourselves probably is a net contributor and similarly disadvantaged in this way. I notice you find it convenient to mention our economy related to only other EU nations and not the global economy. I'm sure you have your reasons ;-)
Germany is a net contributor but what a lot of people don't realise is that what they contribute pales into insignificance with the benefits that their economy has received by being part of a relatively weak currency in the Euro if the Germans were out of the Eurozone the deutsche Mark would be trading at a level 50% higher against the trade weighted value of the Euro currently which would seriously impact their stellar economic performance. Being attached to the Euro and having their true value diluted by the majority of basketcases in the EU has worked exceptionally well for the Germans and it's not a coincidence that their revival from sickman of Europe to superstar of Europe can ne traced along the inception of the Euro (and internal employment changes that chancellor Schroder implemented).
The UK does not benefit at all from this phenomenon with our own currency - not that the UK should ever attempt to join the currency!
One could argue that they failed militarily to take over Europe twice so instead have done it through the EU with France in tow.
Swamped' 'Floods' 'Taking our jobs' 'Increasing the Dole Bill' - The National Front is alive and well!
I disagree. I think a vote to leave will lead to some serious negotiations with the British side having a much stronger hand than Cameron had with his recent sorry attempt. I happen to agree with you that the likes of Gove and Johnson aren't really ardent Outers, and if the EU were to move significantly in the direction of returning sovereignty and reducing red tape, they may well put any deal they get before the British people in a second referendum. Alternatively, we negotiate a mutually beneficial trading arrangement and wish them well. Personally I'm not fussed either way.