EU referendum

[AlgarveBlu]

You right I am worried mate....worried that we going to make the biggest mistake ever for our economy....Can you tell me now what deal we get with the EU if we leave?...dont worry I know the answer!.... so saying we'll be better off leaving just has no weight behind it.....Your right they will have to negotiate those agreements but rational thinking would tell us that any deal is not going to be as good as what we have now....Thats the reality....EU are not going to agree a better deal for us than they would for their own members....I worry because I hear people(like when I went to get my hair cut this week) say...."I'm voting out because Polish are coming over and taking our jobs" What many "outs" dont understand is the fact that any agreement we have to make, will go hand in hand with free movement......so voting to stop a Polish person taking that guys job is just laughable and so misguided...and so completely wrong to the actual reality.....some(like that guy in the hairdressers)voting "out" just dont understand how the process works or just dont want to know because they have this idea that running away from the EU will all of a sudden, make everything better......thats why I worry, not becuase I am in anyway questioning my view to "stay".......I have learnt so much over the last week from being on this thread.....and it pushed me to find out more about the risks and rewards to leaving.....after lots of research it has only confirmed I'm making the right decision when I vote "stay" and I couldnt have said that one week ago.......

If you have an hour of your life to loose this may be of interest to you as it is the Bloomberg debate that was attended on the leave side by the two ex chancellors of the exchequer and a hedge fund manager against the director of the cbi and two other foreign people ;-)

This debate does not touch on immigration at all and is purely on the economics of the trade agreements etc which also infringes on sovereignty issues. The debate was staged just for the City so touches on financial services, impact of tarrifs on trade etc, the possible response from the eu on these matters in terms of retribution etc - Bloomberg are bank rolling the IN campaign.




If you want the short version which is only a minute long - The look on the cbi womans face...priceless...

 

[FanchesterCity]

I honestly think that a large number of brexit voters are easily lead by the rallying calls of 'take back control', 'Proud to be British' and 'not being told what to do by foreigners'. It's certainly not all brexit voters, but a fair whack of them.
But equally, a lot of remain voters are driven by the fear of a large 'unknown' and 'better the devil you know'.

The strength of political personalities is also having a considerable effect, and whilst the delivery of great speeches can very impressive and vote winning because the manipulate emotions in the same way starving children in Africa can manipulate emotions, it doesn't necessarily hold that things are going to improve just because we'd all like them to (one way or another).

It's harder to sell 'remain' because we're already in the EU and there's discontent and rightly or wrongly many of today's issues are being laid at the EU. It's a lot easier to sell 'leave' because it plays on ideals and aspirations for the future and it's selling the notion of a favourable outcome by leaving. Everything that is bad today is at least in part because of EU membership and everything that COULD be good in the future will come from leaving the EU. Classic sales technique right there - what you have is inadequate, what you could have is available to you if you agree to buy right now...

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

It's a bit like being a member of a snooker club and saying I won't pay the membership fee but I have the right to play snooker if I put 50p in the slot for the lights. It just won't wash.

As you said yesterday, if the public vote out then Parliament should honour the Countries vote. The role of Parliament should be to help (both in terms of policy and legislation) achieve the smoothest transition possible / least bumpy ride.

The only way I can see that changing is if the Brexiters say they were prepared to accept free movement of people to regain entry to the single market - that they promise wouldn't ever happen!

If you want to use that analogy when the uk comes to use its veto on not joining the euro when all other countries want to , or its veto on turkey joining when all other countries want to, that won't wash either mate.

 

[bluesoup]

I'm a firm remain now, originally I sat on the fence and did my own research to get to this point. What turned my back on the leave vote was that my questions about leaving and the risks to personal and business life were just not answered, the leave campaign is just too aspirational and lacks a strategy with actions. For such a big decision this is madness to follow and is too much of a gamble to take. Many use the immigration argument but we control non eu immigration and because governments have never nailed this, the EU is not to blame for this. As for other arguments such as legislature and economic- what the dickens has our successive parliaments been employed to do if they are hand bound by Europe??? As for laws, what have we been paying the lawyers to do for decades? Edit : it's refreshing to hear our parliament and legal system has been wasting it's time because the eu bureaucrats have really been running the uk!

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

If you have an hour of your life to loose this may be of interest to you as it is the Bloomberg debate that was attended on the leave side by the two ex chancellors of the exchequer and a hedge fund manager against the director of the cbi and two other foreign people ;-)

This debate does not touch on immigration at all and is purely on the economics of the trade agreements etc which also infringes on sovereignty issues. The debate was staged just for the City so touches on financial services, impact of tarrifs on trade etc, the possible response from the eu on these matters in terms of retribution etc - Bloomberg are bank rolling the IN campaign.




If you want the short version which is only a minute long - The look on the cbi womans face...priceless...

Lawson always was a clever cookie. Priceless.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

If you want to use that analogy when the uk comes to use its veto on not joining the euro when all other countries want to , or its veto on turkey joining when all other countries want to, that won't wash either mate.

Thanks Kevin and there is a big difference between the analogies. We haven't joined the Eurozone Club or agreed to Turkey joing the UK! I had joined the snooker club!

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Thanks Kevin and there is a big difference between the analogies. We haven't joined the Eurozone Club or agreed to Turkey joing the UK! I had joined the snooker club!

Well stop moaning and pay your subscription then like the rest of us....;)

 

[mcfc1632]

The EU will be in a very tenuous position though - if we get quite favourable terms, then that will lead other members to think 'we might as well quit too, because we can get decent terms by being out of the EU!'. Very tricky for the EU this as they'll already be wary of us initiating a domino effect.

I suspect they thought the UK public would stay in - which they still may do, but the threat of leaving is now more than a serious threat, it could even be likely. It might be a game of brinksmanship that works out badly for both parties - there's not necessarily a winner from this.
One thing though - it's 'possible' the UK could benefit from an exit (not my view, but it's possible) - but it's very difficult to see how the EU can benefit from us leaving. So the only realistic outcomes are:
UK win : lose EU
UK lose : lose EU

Even though we have different views on how to vote - You are spot on in all of these comments (IMO)

How people negotiate depends on their perception of risks/benefits. The EU (IMO) has for years shown a total disregard to UK preferences and the embarrassing 'cap in hand' performance of Cameron last year typifies the arrogance and complacency of the EU leaders (and by that I do not mean elected leaders like Cameron)

So it follows that they are suddenly becoming more concerned - so they may have wished they had offered more - well that is still contempt!!

It could be argued that if people (like Cameron) wish to stay in a safer/stronger REFORMED EU - then they are better off voting out. You would see the cap being in a different hand then with a 'stampede' of (real) EU leaders offering the UK all sorts of sweeteners to pretty please change our minds

Therefore we could have an outcome that is either:

UK win : Win EU (in the long run)
UK Win : lose EU

 

[blueonblue]

If they win and then have to seriously negotiate with the EU, they too will have to make concessions. They will have to find a process for agreeing what the negotiating team's priorities are. Free trade or control of immigration? Who decides which is most important?

Does anyone think for one second that the EU would stick out for uncontrolled immigration at the expense of trade, or more correctly will Germany ?, they are the ones pulling the strings an the ones who will lose out if the uk market is closed to them.
Germany may be the most powerful economy in the EU but its doubtful that it could take the loss of one of its biggest markets and continue almost alone to fund the EU ( Its already carrying a large chunk of Greek debt on its books ).

The rest of the world manages without the EU dictating its laws, in fact doing better than the EU which is in decline whatever set of figures you care to use.

Out of the EU gives use an added bonus of sorting out the political classes, no more could they shrug their shoulders and say "Its not us, its the EU rules", the buck would stop with them and put the electorate back in charge of their future without them having the EU tit to fall back on..Do the job right or f*ck off.

 

[Chippy_boy]

This gets absolutely to the heart of the referendum debate. Do the British people believe the high levels of immigration caused by the free movement of people, the lack of democratic accountability which means we have to accept laws we don't agree with, the loss of sovereignty meaning the European court is now superior to our own Supreme Court, the ever increasing contribution meaning we now hand over at least 8 billon quid a year, and the reams of red tape costing our businesses millions of pounds a year and making them less competitive, are all prices worth paying for membership of the single market. I say we set up a positive trading relationship with the EU and remain close friends and allies, but we respectfully bow out of the political project that we've become embroiled in. Far from causing economic harm our businesses will be set free and we'll be a self governing nation again able to negotiate our own trade deals with the growing economies across the globe, which will provide a huge boost to our economy

In your opinion.

Not in mine. In my opinion, in the short term we'll have several years of uncertainty with businesses not knowing what's going to happen with respect to EU trading arrangements, leading to investment decisions being postponed and depressing the UK's growth - possibly pushing us back into recession. Many foreign businesses who've set up in the UK will start making plans to leave the UK and decamp to Europe and tens if not hundreds of thousands of UK jobs will be lost. Our trade with the EU will be adversely impacted with tariffs and import duty leading to yet slower growth and even more job losses. These fantasy "new trade deals with growing economies across the globe" will yield little benefit over what we have already. (Why would China bend over backwards to trade with the UK as opposed to the EU? They can sell their mobile phones or what-have-you to 60 million Brits vs 600 million Europeans.) Our inept politicians will demonstrate that they are no more adept at running our economy than they were before we joined the EU (why would that surprise anyone?) and will not magically transform us into some utopian state as the Brexit dreamers would have you imagine.

The above is my more boring, but I think realistic view of what would happen. But there's other things that could very well happen, that you might want to consider. And please have a think about the people involved and their political agendas and you'll realise that none of this is scaremongering.

Prime Minister Johnson surrounds himself with a cabinet of other right wing supporters who backed the Brexit vote. These people are much more right wing than the more moderate centralists such as Cameron. The Tory government swings strongly to the right, on a wave of jingoistic nationalism. With a new found confidence they press ahead with increasing privatisation of the NHS, in favour of a compulsory insurance-based system. They repeal the minimum wage and do away with the working time directive and other social legislation with the mantra of Backing British Business. They cut the top rate of income tax to 40% and cut welfare and invalidity benefits. They raise the inheretance tax threshold to £1m. I could go on.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

This gets absolutely to the heart of the referendum debate. Do the British people believe the high levels of immigration caused by the free movement of people, the lack of democratic accountability which means we have to accept laws we don't agree with, the loss of sovereignty meaning the European court is now superior to our own Supreme Court, the ever increasing contribution meaning we now hand over at least 8 billon quid a year, and the reams of red tape costing our businesses millions of pounds a year and making them less competitive, are all prices worth paying for membership of the single market. I say we set up a positive trading relationship with the EU and remain close friends and allies, but we respectfully bow out of the political project that we've become embroiled in. Far from causing economic harm our businesses will be set free and we'll be a self governing nation again able to negotiate our own trade deals with the growing economies across the globe, which will provide a huge boost to our economy

Watch the 1 minute Lawson put down of the cbi. For all the "business experts all vote in" people I think Lawson has a bit of clout and experience as a respected former chancellor and knows the uk eu relationship.

His answer to those who say the brexiters need to tell us what the alternative economically would be If we vote leave is

It would simply be would be outside the eu. It may surprise some to know but most countries in the world are in fact outside the Eu and in recent years the performance of countries outside the eu has performed better than those countries in the eu.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

TB#1 - I recognise your concerns of what a Leave vote could lead to - what I was really asking though was has your personal concern that a leave vote could occur changed recently - there does feel to be increased anxiety levels amongst the Remain voters on this thread

Hi mate....I can only speak for myself and I can honestly say....alot of that anxiety comes from the fact the vote is fast approaching and the risks just look bigger and bigger...Just feels more real by the minute......As you can tell(he!) I'm firmly in the "stay" because I feel the risk/reward is just not worth it....but some of my anxiety is also because I feel Cameron has done a poor job of getting the facts out there and some people now just see it as he's just trying to scare...It just seems like many people could turn this into a vote for or against Cameron..and in fact this vote has nothing to do with which party is going to run our country...

 

[mcfc1632]

Aren't the Leavers assuming all the best possible outcomes? Their stance seems to be that we can obtain a free trade deal with the EU AND avoid having to contribute to the budget or follow any of the directives such as free movement of labour.

If they win and then have to seriously negotiate with the EU, they too will have to make concessions. They will have to find a process for agreeing what the negotiating team's priorities are. Free trade or control of immigration? Who decides which is most important?

Yes, but...............


The Leave campaign has not had the luxury of instructing the Treasury to load the worst case scenarios into economic models to enable them to launch project fear. This approach by the Treasury and wider Civil Service is standard and something that I have had first hand experience of in the past.

Re the negotiations that need to take place should there be a Leave vote - then these will be carefully planned and executed by a highly professional team - and not be conducted with the 'begging bowl' approach Cameron demonstrated.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

In your opinion.

Not in mine. In my opinion, in the short term we'll have several years of uncertainty with businesses not knowing what's going to happen with respect to EU trading arrangements, leading to investment decisions being postponed and depressing the UK's growth - possibly pushing us back into recession. Many foreign businesses who've set up in the UK will start making plans to leave the UK and decamp to Europe and tens if not hundreds of thousands of UK jobs will be lost. Our trade with the EU will be adversely impacted with tariffs and import duty leading to yet slower growth and even more job losses. These fantasy "new trade deals with growing economies across the globe" will yield little benefit over what we have already. (Why would China bend over backwards to trade with the UK as opposed to the EU? They can sell their mobile phones or what-have-you to 60 million Brits vs 600 million Europeans.) Our inept politicians will demonstrate that they are no more adept at running our economy than they were before we joined the EU (why would that surprise anyone?) and will not magically transform us into some utopian state as the Brexit dreamers would have you imagine.

The above is my more boring, but I think realistic view of what would happen. But there's other things that could very well happen, that you might want to consider. And please have a think about the people involved and their political agendas and you'll realise that none of this is scaremongering.

Prime Minister Johnson surrounds himself with a cabinet of other right wing supporters who backed the Brexit vote. These people are much more right wing than the more moderate centralists such as Cameron. The Tory government swings strongly to the right, on a wave of jingoistic nationalism. With a new found confidence they press ahead with increasing privatisation of the NHS, in favour of a compulsory insurance-based system. They repeal the minimum wage and do away with the working time directive and other social legislation with the mantra of Backing British Business. They cut the top rate of income tax to 40% and cut welfare and invalidity benefits. They raise the inheretance tax threshold to £1m. I could go on.

I agree mate.....that uncertainty risks many businesses will never get to see these so called....long term benefits....and I also agree that most of our issues are alot closer to home and running away from the EU wont change anything....thanks for your comments...

 

[mcfc1632]

You posted that the money being placed is 'shifting substantially'

What did you mean by that? If by that you meant that there is a huge shift in the betting towards remain then I apologise, you were entirely correct

Bookmaker markets tend to reflect where money is placed. I posted a fact that the odds a couple of weeks ago on Betfair were 1.16 for remain and 5.1 for leave. Another fact is that they are today much different - 1.35 remain and 3.8 leave - it therefore follows...........................

 

[Monkfish]

Watch the 1 minute Lawson put down of the cbi. For all the "business experts all vote in" people I think Lawson has a bit of clout and experience as a respected former chancellor and knows the uk eu relationship.

His answer to those who say the brexiters need to tell us what the alternative economically would be If we vote leave is

It would simply be would be outside the eu. It may surprise some to know but most countries in the world are in fact outside the Eu and in recent years the performance of countries outside the eu has performed better than those countries in the eu.

So he didn't actually answered the point made, just made a couple of puns. That will fix the economic meltdown.

He should probably stick to being a celebrity climate change denier

 

[bluesoup]

Well said chippy, I find it ignorant to say we can negotiate big trade deals with our measly industrial British market. We just don't make as many things anymore! China wants our British brands eg bags, clothes and London high street brands but not our steel etc. Plus other manufactured and industrial goods. Wow what a trade deal we have in store! Japan wants to sell their cars to the eu through us with no tariff, so what can we sell them in exchange to keep them here? Kath kitson bags and clothes...

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

If you have an hour of your life to loose this may be of interest to you as it is the Bloomberg debate that was attended on the leave side by the two ex chancellors of the exchequer and a hedge fund manager against the director of the cbi and two other foreign people ;-)

This debate does not touch on immigration at all and is purely on the economics of the trade agreements etc which also infringes on sovereignty issues. The debate was staged just for the City so touches on financial services, impact of tarrifs on trade etc, the possible response from the eu on these matters in terms of retribution etc - Bloomberg are bank rolling the IN campaign.




If you want the short version which is only a minute long - The look on the cbi womans face...priceless...

thanks mate!;)

 

[sir baconface]

One good thing about the referendum vote, which will be to remain but probably no more than 55-45 in favour will be a warning to the EU - I think they may well become a little better at listening

Possibly so. Wouldn't put it past them to suddenly and coincidentally find an important concession on 22/6.

 

[Monkfish]

Bookmaker markets tend to reflect where money is placed - the odds a couple of weeks ago on Betfair were 1.16 for remain and 5.1 for leave - they are today much different - 1.35 remain and 3.8 leave - it therefore follows...........................

I gave you the exact figures, 2 weeks ago (give or take a day) 87% of bets were for leave

Today 57% of bets placed are for remain

No opinion, just facts.