FA Cup Quarter-Final Draw | Burnley (H)

[the-ecstacy-of-eight]

But you are using the wrong theory. Let's go back to the United 10 home draws in a row (since that's what we are really discussing) . As each draw is mutually exclusive of another the odds of being drawn at home remain constant at evens:-

Home, Home, Home, Home, Home Home Home, Home, Home, Home.
We would calculate the odds of that sequence being drawn as
2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1024.0 (1023/1 or 1023/1024 simplified)
Now lets take another seemingly more random sequence of draws and calculate the odds of the sequence occurring
Home, Away, Away, Home, Home, Home, Away, Home, Away, Home
2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1024.0 (1023/1 or 1023/1024 simplified)

If you truly believe the odds of United's next draw are any different to evens you should put money on it because you will be beating the true odds of the outcome.

I'm not going to get into an argument with you pal, as what you've written above is correct, however your 2nd random sequence isn't the only way of being drawn at home 5 times and away 5 times, and since nobody really cares if it was HAHAHAHAHA or HHHHHAAAAA or any of the other 250 combinations of 5H and 5A, only that 5 were at home and 5 were away, your whole argument is flawed and incorrect.

You ARE correct, in that the theoretical probability that they will be drawn at home in the NEXT draw is 1/2, but what people are discussing here is the theoretical probability of them being drawn at home TEN TIMES IN A ROW.

10 home draws = 1/1024
9 home draws and 1 away draw (ANY ORDER) = 10/1024
8 home draws and 2 away (ANY ORDER) = 45/1024
7 home draws and 3 away (ANY ORDER) = 120/1024
6 home draws and 4 away (ANY ORDER) = 210/1024
5 home draws and 5 away (ANY ORDER) = 252/1024

then it's just reversed for homes and aways for the remaining

You're wrong, get over it, and don't let it spoil your day.

Oh, I won't be doing any more maths lessons as people don't really want to read this shit on a football forum ;)

 

[staffsblue]

Brighton were cunts? They were sound.

I agree. Was drinking in a pub near Marylebone full of them pre match and they were sound, even though some of them chose to drink poncey cocktails!

 

[Franny 1234]

Brighton were cunts? They were sound.

Been to every game at Wembley since 1981 and the C-NTS were in order.
Villa
Rags
LiVARpool

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

Been to every game at Wembley since 1981 and the C-NTS were in order.
Villa
Rags
LiVARpool

Chelsea fans who were at the full members cup say hi.

 

[M18CTID]

I agree. Was drinking in a pub near Marylebone full of them pre match and they were sound, even though some of them chose to drink poncey cocktails!

I was drinking outside The Globe which was full of Brighton inside and out. No issues and had a laugh with them. I did read afterwards that there was a bit of trouble outside Wembley with some of theirs playing up which was corroborated by some Brighton fans themselves on one of their forums but every club has them to be fair.

 

[paska]

But you are using the wrong theory. Let's go back to the United 10 home draws in a row (since that's what we are really discussing) . As each draw is mutually exclusive of another the odds of being drawn at home remain constant at evens:-

Home, Home, Home, Home, Home Home Home, Home, Home, Home.
We would calculate the odds of that sequence being drawn as
2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1024.0 (1023/1 or 1023/1024 simplified)
Now lets take another seemingly more random sequence of draws and calculate the odds of the sequence occurring
Home, Away, Away, Home, Home, Home, Away, Home, Away, Home
2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2=1024.0 (1023/1 or 1023/1024 simplified)

If you truly believe the odds of United's next draw are any different to evens you should put money on it because you will be beating the true odds of the outcome.

Well, it’s more likely to be home cos they like to give em home draws ;)

But last time I checked there’s no market to bet on that.

 

[Franny 1234]

Chelsea fans who were at the full members cup say hi.

All our coach windows got smashed on our return from that. I forgot about them.
CTID

 

[r.soleofsalford]

I'm not going to get into an argument with you pal, as what you've written above is correct, however your 2nd random sequence isn't the only way of being drawn at home 5 times and away 5 times, and since nobody really cares if it was HAHAHAHAHA or HHHHHAAAAA or any of the other 250 combinations of 5H and 5A, only that 5 were at home and 5 were away, your whole argument is flawed and incorrect.

You ARE correct, in that the theoretical probability that they will be drawn at home in the NEXT draw is 1/2, but what people are discussing here is the theoretical probability of them being drawn at home TEN TIMES IN A ROW.

10 home draws = 1/1024
9 home draws and 1 away draw (ANY ORDER) = 10/1024
8 home draws and 2 away (ANY ORDER) = 45/1024
7 home draws and 3 away (ANY ORDER) = 120/1024
6 home draws and 4 away (ANY ORDER) = 210/1024
5 home draws and 5 away (ANY ORDER) = 252/1024

then it's just reversed for homes and aways for the remaining

You're wrong, get over it, and don't let it spoil your day.

Oh, I won't be doing any more maths lessons as people don't really want to read this shit on a football forum ;)

I was at the casino and saw it land on #17
5 times in a row, fortunately I had a tenner on it and let it ride.

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

All our coach windows got smashed on our return from that. I forgot about them.
CTID

Think it has to be rags in 2011, Chelsea in 1989 as top two c***s then it's a close one between Villa, wall pushers and even Spurs from 1981

 

[Etihad]

Think it has to be rage in 2011, Chelsea in 1989 as top c***s then it's a close one between Villa, wall pushers and even Spurs from 1981

Chelsea fans still singing Roman Abramovich's name. Zero self awareness.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Must… resist… posting… eight paragraph… explanation… of expected value probability theory…

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

Just found this which might help working out when we might play.

'ITV will have first pick and fourth pick of matches in the Second Round, Fourth Round and the Quarter Finals, as well as second and third picks for the First, Third and Fifth Rounds and second pick of the Semi-finals'.

Surely we would be the first pick for ITV, BBC will pick the rags regardless of who they are playing and then probably the Sheffield game leaving ITV with Brighton. Rags have to play Sunday meaning we will be whatever time slot ITV have on the Saturday, with the Sheffield game also being played that day on BBC. Brighton v Grimsby would be played Sunday.

 

[bluesmith]

Just found this which might help working out when we might play.

'ITV will have first pick and fourth pick of matches in the Second Round, Fourth Round and the Quarter Finals, as well as second and third picks for the First, Third and Fifth Rounds and second pick of the Semi-finals'.

Surely we would be the first pick for ITV, BBC will pick the rags regardless of who they are playing and then probably the Sheffield game leaving ITV with Brighton. Rags have to play Sunday meaning we will be whatever time slot ITV have on the Saturday, with the Sheffield game also being played that day on BBC. Brighton v Grimsby would be played Sunday.

Grimsby play Tuesday 21st so they are likely to be Saturday.

I think Grimsby will be early Saturday, with City the later game, Sheffield Utd early Sunday and united the later game.

 

[wilmslowblue1]

These guys are no mugs for sure ..... This will be a tough game and we cant play our C team.

If they were in the Premier League, they would be a mid table team for sure. There better than half the dross in our league by way of : Southampton, Leeds, Bournemouth etc .........

Only reservation is that would that football type Burnley play work for a team who aren't as technically gifted as us against the low block teams. This reservation comes as we extremely struggle against low block teams at times ....

 

[johnnytapia]

Just found this which might help working out when we might play.

'ITV will have first pick and fourth pick of matches in the Second Round, Fourth Round and the Quarter Finals, as well as second and third picks for the First, Third and Fifth Rounds and second pick of the Semi-finals'.

Surely we would be the first pick for ITV, BBC will pick the rags regardless of who they are playing and then probably the Sheffield game leaving ITV with Brighton. Rags have to play Sunday meaning we will be whatever time slot ITV have on the Saturday, with the Sheffield game also being played that day on BBC. Brighton v Grimsby would be played Sunday.

I wonder if there’s a mathematical formula for the above....

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

Grimsby play Tuesday 21st so they are likely to be Saturday.

I think Grimsby will be early Saturday, with City the later game, Sheffield Utd early Sunday and united the later game.

Didn't know about Grimsby so it's pretty straight forward really.

 

[Hovden]

I'm guessing Monday night is out of the question, given the international games on the following Thursday?

 

[tommybooth]

Days mentioned are Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

 

[levets]

I think he rocked up in a hoodie when Forest beat us at home in the Cup. On one hand, you think, what the fuck does it matter what the manager’s wearing? But when he wears a smart suit every other week, it’s kind of giving out bad vibes of not being as professional as if it were a league game.

Forest was before Pellegrini, Hughes was manager. My thoughts exactly on the hoodie & Jeans… lack of professionalism, laid back attitude, poor preparation.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

These guys are no mugs for sure ..... This will be a tough game and we cant play our C team.

If they were in the Premier League, they would be a mid table team for sure. There better than half the dross in our league by way of : Southampton, Leeds, Bournemouth etc .........

Only reservation is that would that football type Burnley play work for a team who aren't as technically gifted as us against the low block teams. This reservation comes as we extremely struggle against low block teams at times ....

You might be right but there’s guarantee of that though. 2 biggest points scorers in championship history, Reading and Sunderland, where both relegated the season they were promoted and Norwich often get lots of points before being relegated the following season.