French politics | Macron calls shock GE

[BobKowalski]

A similar revolt has also happened in Germany. Italy and Holland are already there. We often view the Europeans in some higher regard but their politics is clearly as polarised as ours.

It's ironic but in a few years time the UK could be left with the only 'left-wing' or even pro-EU government in Europe!

European politics has long been polarised, but the new EU Parliament is little different from that elected last time. The far-right has gained four seats overall as the centre-left made gains in Eastern European countries. Basically, it’s pretty much business as usual.

Also, far-right parties are mainly pro-EU these days. AfD in Germany is the outlier and Le Pen in France has distanced herself from them. People overlook that the EU is 27 countries with different cultures and politics so uniform change is difficult to achieve.

 

[BobKowalski]

Turnout will be far higher for the GE, so hoping that a lot of the stay-aways for the Euro elections are moderates who come back to the fold. Big gamble though.

Macron has been itching for an excuse to dissolve the assembly. Using Le Pen as the reason is a tad rich given Le Pen won the previous two European elections. Le Pen did demand new elections but I doubt she thought Macron would actually do it.

Either Macron will get the assembly he wants or he co-habits with Le Pen’s mob which means they will also get stuck with every unpopular decision for the next three years and into the next Presidential election. It’s a gamble, but not as mad as it seems.

 

[Uncle Wally One Ball]

Bold leadership, good on him

 

[beehive_bob]

Macron has been itching for an excuse to dissolve the assembly. Using Le Pen as the reason is a tad rich given Le Pen won the previous two European elections. Le Pen did demand new elections but I doubt she thought Macron would actually do it.

Either Macron will get the assembly he wants or he co-habits with Le Pen’s mob which means they will also get stuck with every unpopular decision for the next three years and into the next Presidential election. It’s a gamble, but not as mad as it seems.

That's why I consider it to be a big gamble. Politics is a cynical business but if Macron really does see your second scenario as palatable because he thinks he won't be held truly accountable for decisions made, then that is no way to govern.

 

[jim tolmies perm]

European politics has long been polarised, but the new EU Parliament is little different from that elected last time. The far-right has gained four seats overall as the centre-left made gains in Eastern European countries. Basically, it’s pretty much business as usual.

Also, far-right parties are mainly pro-EU these days. AfD in Germany is the outlier and Le Pen in France has distanced herself from them. People overlook that the EU is 27 countries with different cultures and politics so uniform change is difficult to achieve.

Good assessment and assuages my fears a little...let's hope it bottoms out here for the extreme right... also good to see Orban and Salvini getting bloody noses too..

 

[Mon Autre]

Bold leadership, good on him

This is a bold move, but it's his brand of tepid centrism and aversion to change that has helped the far right surge in the first place. Sadly I think this is where Keir Starmer's politics will lead us to between July and the next election too.

 

[BobKowalski]

That's why I consider it to be a big gamble. Politics is a cynical business but if Macron really does see your second scenario as palatable because he thinks he won't be held truly accountable for decisions made, then that is no way to govern.

Macron can’t run in 2027 so it will be Le Pen vs someone. To be honest the best ticket to run on in 2027 will be a candidate who hates both Macron and Le Pen.

It’s likely there would have been elections later this year as the opposition will call for votes of no confidence and the assembly will collapse at some point. This way Macron controls the timing and sets the early agenda. Whether this gambit works or not is anybody’s guess.

 

[Nails]

Difficult to say whether this is a brave or foolhardy move from Macron at the moment. Either way, it’s pretty depressing to see the rise of the far right across Europe again (and, indeed, Britain). Grim stuff.

@Ric, here in Sweden we've had a big swing away from the far-right and towards the left, including the Greens.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

@Ric, here in Sweden we've had a big swing away from the far-right and towards the left, including the Greens.

I think there’s a trend of frustrated young people trying to find solutions in positions that generally buck their national trends. Here in the UK we’ve had 14 years of centre/right so the young are going left. In others, centre/left so the young are going right.

Either way, it’s indicative to me that parties on both sides of the spectrum have courted the older age brackets as a more solid and predictable voter base at the expense of the young and that is now starting to bite them. I think what we’re seeing across Europe is not a pushback against left or right, it’s a pushback against an increasingly lop-sided gerontocracy that manifests as socialism for the old but dog-eat-dog free market capitalism on steroids for anybody under 50.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Hope this works out. Otherwise it'll be a "Brexit" catastrophe for the French.