French politics | Macron calls shock GE

[Dave Ewing's Back 'eader]

Will any French election result affect my planned week on the Ile de Ré? Or am I gonna be 'Jean L'Etranger' and viewed suspiciously?

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

I think it’s hard to gauge because the election has multiple rounds but what seems clear from the opinion polls is that the centre ground has been lost.

Last I saw RN are expected to get a plurality at 37%, Macron’s centrists 20% and the far left 28%. Those three are all likely to go through to the second round as you need 12.5% of the vote for that - but it is unlikely that anybody gets over 50% for a majority.

Then it’s a question of where the remaining 15% fall in the second round. Whatever the case, the far right are likely to have far more seats and therefore a much bigger voice, but whether it will be enough to form a majority block is the key question.

I don’t know how the lower house works in France but I’m wondering if maybe the centre and left can form some kind of coalition. Because the far left party’s policies are nice in theory but often lack the sense of fiscal robustness that the centre brings to the table. So then you’d hopefully get a situation where the left lead the policy agenda but the centre have to agree the policy can be effectively financed. Somebody more educated than me can tell us if that would work in practice.

So far as I know, no-one in authority on the left or the centre or the centre-right has ruled this out of court. But I may have missed something. Nobody actually wants it, but I think all parties are keeping that card close to their chest.
It could be done, there's a precedent for it: Chirac as president, Jospin as prime minister, at the beginning of the millennium. It was difficult enough that time, and it would be much more difficult this one. Incidentally, it was Jospin and the Parti Socialiste who paid the price, massively. In the next presidential elections, Jospin was slaughtered, and the second round was a straight face-off between Chirac and Jean-Marie Le Pen. That will not have escaped the historical notice of everyone on the left who is inclined to make a deal with Macron.
Mélenchon is well to the left of Jospin as he then was, as la France Insoumise is well to the left of the Parti Socialiste as it then had become. Believe it, any alliance would be extremely uncomfortable. To give just one example: the Front Populaire,which includes la France Insoumise, has stated that it will abrogate the reform on the age of retirement pushed through by Macron two years ago (that stated aim is on their leaflet, which I was looking at yesterday and have got on my table right now). The age of retirement as it stands is now 64 (with quite a few exceptions for “hardship” trades that were negotiated with the unions over a period of months. They still demonstrated against it, week after week). Now I consider myself to be most definitely on the left, have done all my life, but I don't think they can annul that reform, and I think they'd be stupid to even try. You've only got to look around you at the ageing population. It's just not sustainable to have hundreds of thousands of people retiring at 60. That alone would be an “interesting” discussion between Macron and the left, to put it mildly, before any deal could be struck.
By the way, I think you're right. I don't think the RN will get an absolute majority in the assemblée. In any case, I bloody well hope not. If they do, then it becomes a case of what the division of responsibilities is between the president and the prime minister is, constitutionally speaking (as it would be, in fairness, in the other scenario as well). And that's actually murkier and more complex than it looks, according to respectable and informed political commentators I've been listening to on French radio in recent weeks.

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

Very disconcerting times for the 5th republic...
Fingers crossed that enough like you hold their noses and do the decent thing..

Believe me, the choice between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer may not look like a particularly inspiring one to you lot, but it's kindergarten stuff compared to the critical situation we find ourselves in. We are looking at, potentially, a constitutional crisis that could shake the 5e République to its core.

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

Will any French election result affect my planned week on the Ile de Ré? Or am I gonna be 'Jean L'Etranger' and viewed suspiciously?

I already view you suspiciously, from all your posts on here. Anybody who's got time to make 60,000+ posts, gotta be something odd there.

;-)

Don't know if you've been to l'île de Ré before, but everyone says it's lovely. Good choice. The Atlantic area at that point up the coast should not be as hot as the Mediterranean area. Although be warned, if you plan to do any swimming, the Atlantic off the French coast represents a bit of a challenge. It's not for weak swimmers. There's a strong undertow.
Come hell or high water, even if there's a right-wing coup d'état, I'm going to Tours and the Loire valley in August. Also a favourite spot of mine.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

So far as I know, no-one in authority on the left or the centre or the centre-right has ruled this out of court. But I may have missed something. Nobody actually wants it, but I think all parties are keeping that card close to their chest.
It could be done, there's a precedent for it: Chirac as president, Jospin as prime minister, at the beginning of the millenium. It was difficult enough that time, and it would be much more difficult this one. Incidentally, it was Jospin and the Parti Socialiste who paid the price, massively. In the next presidential elections, Jospin was slaughtered, and the second round was a straight face-off between Chirac and Jean-Marie Le Pen. That will not have escaped the historical notice of everyone on the left who is inclined to make a deal with Macron.
Mélenchon is well to the left of Jospin as he then was, as la France Insoumise is well to the left of the Parti Socialiste as it then had become. Believe it, any alliance would be extremely uncomfortable. To give just one example: the Front Populaire,which includes la France Insoumise, has stated that it will abrogate the reform on the age of retirement pushed through by Macron two years ago (that stated aim is on their leaflet, which I was looking at yesterday and have got on my table right now). The age of retirement as it stands is now 64 (with quite a few exceptions for “hardship” trades that were negotiated with the unions over a period of months. They still demonstrated against it, week after week). Now I consider myself to be most definitely on the left, have done all my life, but I don't think they can annul that reform, and I think they'd be stupid to even try. You've only got to look around you at the ageing population. It's just not sustainable to have hundreds of thousands of people retiring at 60. That alone would be an “interesting” discussion between Macron and the left, to put it mildly, before any deal could be struck.
By the way, I think you're right. I don't think the RN will get an absolute majority in the assemblée. In any case, I bloody well hope not. If they do, then it becomes a case of what the division of responsibilities is between the president and the prime minister is, constitutionally speaking (as it would be, in fairness, in the other scenario as well). And that's actually murkier and more complex than it looks, according to respectable and informed political commentators I've been listening to on French radio in recent weeks.

Great info and context, thanks. However this ends up panning out, my best wishes to you and the majority in France who are in my experience decent folk (I say this with a kind of begrudging respect typical of an Englishman).

 

[jim tolmies perm]

result

I already view you suspiciously, from all your posts on here. Anybody who's got time to make 60,000+ posts, gotta be something odd there.

;-)

Don't know if you've been to l'île de Ré before, but everyone says it's lovely. Good choice. The Atlantic area at that point up the coast should not be as hot as the Mediterranean area. Although be warned, if you plan to do any swimming, the Atlantic off the French coast represents a bit of a challenge. It's not for weak swimmers. There's a strong undertow.
Come hell or high water, even if there's a right-wing coup d'état, I'm going to Tours and the Loire valley in August. Also a favourite spot of mine.

Very high turnout 60% at 17.00 CET
How do you think this impacts the results?

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

Huge spike in turnout, according to state radio. 20 points more than in 2022!
The highest level of turnout for first round of législatives since 1978.
In principle, low turn-out is always good for the far right, high turn-out not so good. This time, I'm on my guard — I'm just not sure. I think a lot of RN voters are very determined. As ever, it's the youth that count for everything (as they would have counted in 2016, as you lot know only too well). If they abstain out of apathy, it's a bad look-out. I think this time they've got the message. That said, something new in the stats is that a bigger proportion than ever before of under-30s are voting Le Pen and Bardella, these days.

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

Great info and context, thanks. However this ends up panning out, my best wishes to you and the majority in France who are in my experience decent folk (I say this with a kind of begrudging respect typical of an Englishman).

Good on you. Most are. And thanks for the kind wishes, mate.
Just so there's no ambiguity — born and brought up in north London, myself, moved to Manchester in my early teens. Even worked in Longsight as a parks gardener one long hot summer! Educated mainly in England, later on in France. Both parents born in England, of English, (some Irish and Scottish) stock. I hold two passports and I'm proud of them both. I'd have to say my main connection with England is now the Etihad. I am, above all, a European. I'll never really feel comfortable in the States, or anywhere else for that matter if I stay there too long. And I've travelled, with great profit, on every continent except Antarctica. I absolutely love travelling.
Not much of a patriot, really, never been interested in the royal weddings but I cannot support another team in sports against England. It's just not possible. Intensely annoys me whenever the French beat the English, especially in football.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

Another country in Europe voting in large numbers for a far right party. Worrying times.

 

[hilts]

Another country in Europe voting in large numbers for a far right party. Worrying times.

Unless you're far right I guess