General Election - 4th July 2024

Who will you be voting for in the General Election?

  • Labour

    Votes: 266 56.8%
  • Conservative

    Votes: 12 2.6%
  • Liberal Democrat

    Votes: 40 8.5%
  • Reform

    Votes: 71 15.2%
  • Green Party

    Votes: 28 6.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 51 10.9%

  • Total voters
    468
Nobody can be in full time work in England at 16.
It is compulsory to be in full time education or training to 18

I find your utilitarian view of the value higher education totally depressing.
All three of my kids went to top unis , had their horizons expanded, met echelons of society they otherwise would never have met and hold top professional jobs.

I think your problem with it lies in you, not the system.
The fact that you mentioned your kids going to top universities is very relevant because most kids don't go to top universities, that is an exception. Another level above that are the Oxbridge universities where even academic ability is irrelevant.

What you're talking about is privilege and access to privilege. Isn't that something that we should be driving out of the system? It's not really an argument that a degree should be a competitive tool as opposed to an actual piece of usable education. This is the lie that is sold, you will get a great job by going to university, it's not true. Imagine if fees were free and we the taxpayer were literally paying to supplement this lie.

Obviously the fault lies in me for not doing well enough but we're talking about average and not the dreggs at the bottom. The average kid goes to university, comes out and doors are just not opened by default. I certainly did not rub with the highest echelons of society (except over 10 pints maybe!).

My argument is that I probably shouldn't have bothered for these reasons. I left university with a 1st degree in engineering and I couldn't get a mid-level job, I had to start at the bottom. Many others I know were in the same boat, some left and had to get jobs in totally unrelated industries where you have to say what was the point?
 
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Well bookies are an awful measure of how likely something incredibly unlikely is to happen. That’s like comparing the odds of Ederson and Harry Maguire to be next season’s top scorer. There’s probably only about 2 people in the betting market.

I’ll grant that it’s unlikely but there’s only realistically 3 parties that can come second, and Reform and UKIP are not in that pool. The Lib Dem’s campaign is regionally focused, they won’t ever stand a chance of winning the most seats for the exact same reason as the SNP. But winning the second most seats, and winning the most seats are very different things. The bar for that might be as low as 60-80 seats.

If I had to put odds on who is going to have the second most seats it’s probably something like:
> Tories 90%
> Lib Dems 6%
> SNP 3%
> Labour 1%
Agree with that assessment. Lib Dems have very patchy support. They tend to have to beat tories therefore their success correlates to tory failure. But even assuming the tories have a disaster and get say 100 seats. Lib dems are going to struggle to break 100 as they just don't have much hope outside of their top 80 or so target seats. They have only gone above 60 once in the last 100 years.

The SNP are in a similar boat.

So the only way I see tories in 3rd is if they get circa 50 seats.
 
Agree with that assessment. Lib Dems have very patchy support. They tend to have to beat tories therefore their success correlates to tory failure. But even assuming the tories have a disaster and get say 100 seats. Lib dems are going to struggle to break 100 as they just don't have much hope outside of their top 80 or so target seats. They have only gone above 60 once in the last 100 years.

The SNP are in a similar boat.

So the only way I see tories in 3rd is if they get circa 50 seats.

Correct, I can’t see it happening simply because there are some areas in England, particularly in the East, which appear completely impervious to change. They’d probably still be voting Whig if that were an option.

I can see a world where Lib Dems get 60-70 seats. And I can see a world where Tories get <70. But both are pretty unlikely. It’s a bit like hoping that the planets align.
 
Correct, I can’t see it happening simply because there are some areas in England, particularly in the East, which appear completely impervious to change. They’d probably still be voting Whig if that were an option.

I can see a world where Lib Dems get 60-70 seats. And I can see a world where Tories get <70. But both are pretty unlikely. It’s a bit like hoping that the planets align.

My predition is as follows (note there will be 50 less mps after this election due to boundary changes):

Labour 350
Tory 160
Lib D 36
SNP 34
Reform 1
Others 19
 
My predition is as follows (note there will be 50 less mps after this election due to boundary changes):

Labour 350
Tory 160
Lib D 36
SNP 34
Reform 1
Others 19

That plan was shelved.

"The total number of seats in the House of Commons will stay at 650 - after plans to cut 50 seats were dropped by the government in March 2020"

Is the total number of MPs changing?​

No. The total number of seats – and so the total number of MPs – will not change. There will still be 650 MPs elected in total.


What's your new prediction?
 
Lib Dems are like trams. Just as people who would never be seen dead on a bus can accept trams so the Lib Dems can attract those who would never vote Labour but still oppose the Tories.

This by its very nature is a localised phenomenon. But the Lib Dems know where to concentrate their limited resources. In that sense, at least, they are quite professional and astute.

The other factor (and this is something we shall not know until we see the GE results) is to what extent people hate the Tories enough to vote tactically to get 'their' Tory out. If I lived in such a seat, voting LD would be a no-brainer. But not everyone thinks like me. My guess is this will have an impact in some areas, but God alone knows in how many.
 
This is what we get with a mainly right wing press and media.



Stupid people taken advantage of imo. How they can believe the country would be better off under Tory I dont know. wtf

It's a sad thing, I think. There's an element of self-protection from gossip and the reality of a viciously judgemental and harsh society? Won't find you at fault if you say you're on their team?

I mean, there's no way on earth there aren't areas where people get pressured unfairly into being visibly right-on and proclaiming themselves labour supporters / whatever.

Blaming the press is being selective. It's just the sad truth of our lives and the way we treat each other.
 
Well bookies are an awful measure of how likely something incredibly unlikely is to happen. That’s like comparing the odds of Ederson and Harry Maguire to be next season’s top scorer. There’s probably only about 2 people in the betting market.

I’ll grant that it’s unlikely but there’s only realistically 3 parties that can come second, and Reform and UKIP are not in that pool. The Lib Dem’s campaign is regionally focused, they won’t ever stand a chance of winning the most seats for the exact same reason as the SNP. But winning the second most seats, and winning the most seats are very different things. The bar for that might be as low as 60-80 seats.

If I had to put odds on who is going to have the second most seats it’s probably something like:
> Tories 90%
> Lib Dems 6%
> SNP 3%
> Labour 1%
You're wrong about Bookmakers, they're risk assessors who use algorithms, experts, betting patterns and data to compile odds, come voting day we'll see what odds they arrive at, they'll certainly be different than currently and I'll be surprised if they're not pretty much on the money.
 
That plan was shelved.

"The total number of seats in the House of Commons will stay at 650 - after plans to cut 50 seats were dropped by the government in March 2020"

Is the total number of MPs changing?​

No. The total number of seats – and so the total number of MPs – will not change. There will still be 650 MPs elected in total.


What's your new prediction?
In that case I would just split the extra 50 evenly on tories and labour. So;

Labour 375
Tory 185.

I think the lib dems are maxing out at 36. I'd like them to do better as the most pro EU party but they seem to lack any big personalities.
 

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