General Election - 4th July 2024

[blueparrot]

In that case I would just split the extra 50 evenly on tories and labour. So;

Labour 375
Tory 185.

I think the lib dems are maxing out at 36. I'd like them to do better as the most pro EU party but they seem to lack any big personalities.

Think the SNP are the most pro EU , but as a UK party it would be Liberals,though they seem a bit scared of running with it.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

You're wrong about Bookmakers, they're risk assessors who use algorithms, experts, betting patterns and data to compile odds, come voting day we'll see what odds they arrive at, they'll certainly be different than currently and I'll be surprised if they're not pretty much on the money.

Yeah but they are not in the game of predictions. They set the odds to make money. They have good insight in to what gamblers want to bet on and that is often very different to what will happen.

For example betting on labour to win a majority at low odds is very boring stuff. Its low risk low return.

Betting on reform to win 5 seats is more the kind of punt that punters will take. Punters don't like low return bets.

Knowing this the odds can get detached from the likely outcome.

 

[threespires]

My brother is the same. Cant get an appointment at the hospital, cant afford stuff... Doesnt want Labour in because "they will ruin the country".

I really really hate our press.

Falling for the repeated lie is a known cognitive bias called "The illusory truth effect"; you can't even easily 'educate' it out of people because the research shows that you can take intelligent people, give them something that they know to be incorrect and if you repeat the lie often enough and well enough something called processing fluency comes into play and they start to accept the lie. Basically familiarity trumps rationality.

It's one of the reasons social media as a large scale amplifier is so fucking dangerous. To your point, unless the media and vlops are sanctioned for propagating falsehoods, or there's sufficient diversity in the information and messages people are subjected too, it's hard to combat the phenomena. Let's be clear there's a lot of brainy people in analytics companies and the like who know all this very well and they need to be held to account and not be allowed to squirrel away in the shadows. Our legislative frameworks are mostly useless when it comes to stuff like this but they needn't be.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

Highlight of the GE stuff so far is that Lib guy falling in the water.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Yeah but they are not in the game of predictions. They set the odds to make money. They have good insight in to what gamblers want to bet on and that is often very different to what will happen.

For example betting on labour to win a majority at low odds is very boring stuff. Its low risk low return.

Betting on reform to win 5 seats is more the kind of punt that punters will take. Punters don't like low return bets.

Knowing this the odds can get detached from the likely outcome.

Correct.

The size of the betting market greatly influences the precision of the odds offered.

That’s why there’s always about a hundred potential presidential candidates at 100/1, 200/1 etc.

They aren’t actually all equally likely, they’re just so unlikely that the work needed to develop precise odds isn’t worth it. So they just offer odds that look attractive for people who want a long-shot punt but are generally well below the real odds.

No bookie is putting their analytics team into scrutinising whether Reform is going to win 100 seats. But the odds are obviously worse than 200/1, so just offer that.


The odds on Labour winning, on the other hand, will be heavily interrogated.

 

[hammocity]

Yeah but they are not in the game of predictions. They set the odds to make money. They have good insight in to what gamblers want to bet on and that is often very different to what will happen.

For example betting on labour to win a majority at low odds is very boring stuff. Its low risk low return.

Betting on reform to win 5 seats is more the kind of punt that punters will take. Punters don't like low return bets.

Knowing this the odds can get detached from the likely outcome.

How do you think they arrive at odds? Opinion/predictions are part of odds setting, their opinions are sometimes challenged by punters with inside information or differing opinions. They don't compile odds to suit "gamblers" because punters are all completely different.

Every day you will find odds on events are changed by the pure weight of money wagered and who is placing the bets, they have sophisticated systems to ensure their liabilities don't go beyond a certain level depending what the event is.

Betting is done on what the bookmakers call "over round", all markets regardless of the event will be over 100%, on a two runner field the profit will be much less (about 5/6%) than a 12 runner event where the over round will be between 8 and 10%, even more as more runners enter the betting and probabilities change.

You also don't seem to grasp that some punters are very happy to take low returns on low risk bets, some of the biggest bets laid are at low odds.

Your post was very subjective and not accurate.

 

[hammocity]

But the odds are obviously worse than 200/1, so just offer that.

The bookmakers caught a cold with Leicester at 5000/1, the price of the Reform party will be much higher come the day.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

The bookmakers caught a cold with Leicester at 5000/1, the price of the Reform party will be much higher come the day.

They’ve got to be long enough odds to tempt punters into lumping on without risking too much in case the bet actually wins.

Guess the algorithm + money bet gives them the range of odds to offer?

 

[Scottyboi]

The bookmakers caught a cold with Leicester at 5000/1, the price of the Reform party will be much higher come the day.

The bookies made a fortune from Leicester winning the league.

 

[hammocity]

The bookies made a fortune from Leicester winning the league.

They make money whenever outsiders come in (generally) as only small bets are on big price winners. Cheltenham for example can be a proper loser for bookmakers when 4 or 5 favourites win on one day, the money wagered on favourites is very significant.