Skashion said:
SWP's back, what do you think the prospects are for a double-dip recessions are? Will it happen or not?
Difficult to answer with any great deal of accuracy if im honest as it's a complex issue. What I will say is that the technicalities of a recession matters more to the media than the average bloke on the street (0.3% growth vs 0.1% decline is unlikely to affect the vast majority of us).
The problem we have nowadays is that the media can have a huge affect on consumer confidence and people on the same or more money now than they were on 18 months ago aren't spending as much due to a state of fear. 24 hour news demands bad news to keep viewer attention.
fwiw the consensus is that companies are hugely undervalued with great room for growth over the medium to long term. Expect volatility in the next 6 months but everyone is cautiously optimistic. We are better placed than we were 3 years ago. America is not fucked by a long chalk and will never default, be glad we aren't in the Eurozone.
Any recession won't be as painful as they were in the 80's and 90's, hell, the last one lasted less than 6 months. Good companies will survive. Recessions act as Darwinian evolution in economic terms. Where one company fails, another, more able to adapt to consumer wants/wishes/concerns will take it's place.
The misinformation that abounds is frustrating to say the least.