How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

[west didsblue]

Oh just a couple of technical points.... if a post is deleted , by definition you will not see it . Secondly when someone gets a ban there is no leaving speech so it is extremely unlikely you will be able to see it.
I thought I had better explain it.

Posts don’t get deleted instantaneously. Sometimes they’re there for hours before a mod decides to do a clean up. Thought I’d better explain.
And I didn’t realise you had a ban. Clearly I didn’t miss you. Sorry.

 

[Rascal]

If anyone can predict where we will be in the next 5 years with accuracy in this uncertain world we live in I will hold my hands up to them.

Me too, we live in strange times

There are so many areas to cover I wouldn’t know where to start but I will throw a few in to the ring.
Unless there is a huge turnaround in his fortunes Boris will have gone within 12 months.

Its Johnson and I hope he gets fucked off ASAP, the worst PM in living memory

The Lib Dem’s will get a lot more seats in the next election, mainly off the Tories rather than them going back to Labour on the basis they never say anything controversial

In Southern England seats that is a possibility especially if people vote tactically

The Labour Party will continue to struggle and I think the left are not happy with their Leader and will revolt and try to go in to the next election with someone else.

Starmer is useless and I cannot vote for Labour in a GE, I will vote Green or Communist.

Starmer, just doesn’t come across as PM material and seems more Lib Dem than Labour

He is a Social Democrat, an old style Liberal centrist who U turns that much he is going round in circles. Hope he is found guilty in Currygate

I like Lisa Nandy seems full of new ideas but not too radical

Another decent Labourite pulled to the right by the forces that be. Get rid

Incidentally I though Angela Rayner had a blinder today at PMQ’s she went off script when attacking Rabb who walked straight in to it and I found myself laughing, and at one point even clapping.

Rayner is a proper working class girl, she gets it, her back story is untypical of a Parliamentarian. If you get a chance listen to the podcast Full Disclosure she did with James OB. I like her lots.

The first time I have heard the Labour back benches shouting more for a long time.
Could she be the next leader, no as she will struggle to get enough support within the party.
Her tongue will eventually get her hung as the saying goes

The Labour Party PLP needs an overhaul, it has the likes of Streeting and Reeves in it. Get fucking rid.

Rayner though is authentic,

I think China is going to be a major problem for the next 5 years both militarily and economically.

Correct, there economy will overtake the US in a few years and they will become a Superpower.

I don’t trust them.

Up to know apart from internal stuff like the Uighurs and Tibet they have been OK but i get your point,

Labour shortages through the U.K. economy will definitely result in an increase in wages to many, as workers can pick and chose.
This could result in a narrowing of pay differentials between skilled and unskilled workers.

Whilst I welcome the increase in wages as Labour becomes scarce it will not help the inflationary cycle

Illegal immigration is going to be a major headache and whilst we desperately need more workers to help with the shortages, politically if we have an open door policy it could lead to unrest if uncontrolled.

That is a huge juxtaposition between two vastly differing positions

I support controlled immigration, yet also support the rights of asylum seekers to find a safe haven in this country. At the moment we are doing the opposite, we are stopping asylum seekers, yet letting in immigrants/

Finally Brexit, we are not going back in that’s for sure, has our economy suffered, hard to argue it hasn't short term.
Long term say 5 years it will always depend on what deals we do with the rest of the world.

Hopefully not, the EU is a Neo-Liberal club that favours Capitalism over the working class.

If in 5 years time if we are as dependant on European Trade as we are now it doesn’t look good unless we bring a lot of the goods and services we use within the EU back to the U.K.

We need a Government prepared to address the imbalance rather than score cheap political points

That’s my lot I am afraid, seeing as you asked.
Hopefully nothing too controversial.

It was a reasonable and well constructed post.

 

[Ric]

I like your pun
There are some who have maintained a sense of humour on this sub forum
If I hadn’t had a yellow card on the RMT thread I would happily discuss Brexit.
My views on the subject are not as black and white as some of the other posters so they may come as a bit of a surprise to others on here.
However it being so soon after being unable to submit comments on another thread I don’t want to risk a ban.
Nothing to do with martyrdom and if those with friends in high places can guarantee through the ultimate Boss Ric, that they will not intervene I would happily share them with you.
But that ain’t going to happen

Just for future reference, this is from the forum rules:

- Don't start topics/reply to threads asking "where has my post gone" or "why can't I reply to a thread". Send a PM to one of the moderators instead.

- Please treat the moderators with respect, and don't derail threads by questioning their decisions. Any issues with moderation should be brought to Ric rather than aired publicly.

FWIW, no user had reported you, but a moderator felt that you were continually derailing the thread (no pun intended) so it was decided that a short thread ban was in order. Please feel free to PM me if you wish to discuss it further.

 

[Saddleworth2]

If anyone can predict where we will be in the next 5 years with accuracy in this uncertain world we live in I will hold my hands up to them.
There are so many areas to cover I wouldn’t know where to start but I will throw a few in to the ring.
Unless there is a huge turnaround in his fortunes Boris will have gone within 12 months.
The Lib Dem’s will get a lot more seats in the next election, mainly off the Tories rather than them going back to Labour on the basis they never say anything controversial
The Labour Party will continue to struggle and I think the left are not happy with their Leader and will revolt and try to go in to the next election with someone else.
Starmer, just doesn’t come across as PM material and seems more Lib Dem than Labour
I like Lisa Nandy seems full of new ideas but not too radical
Incidentally I though Angela Rayner had a blinder today at PMQ’s she went off script when attacking Rabb who walked straight in to it and I found myself laughing, and at one point even clapping.
The first time I have heard the Labour back benches shouting more for a long time.
Could she be the next leader, no as she will struggle to get enough support within the party.
Her tongue will eventually get her hung as the saying goes
I think China is going to be a major problem for the next 5 years both militarily and economically. I don’t trust them.
Labour shortages through the U.K. economy will definitely result in an increase in wages for many, as workers can pick and chose.
This could result in a narrowing of pay differentials between skilled and unskilled workers.
Illegal immigration is going to be a major headache and whilst we desperately need more workers to help with the shortages, politically if we have an open door policy it could lead to unrest if uncontrolled.
I think traditional Labour voters are in favour of restricted immigration if it’s helping to push wages up for the low skilled so I think Labour have to tread carefully if they push for a relaxation in controls.
Finally Brexit, we are not going back in that’s for sure, has our economy suffered, hard to argue it hasn't short term.
Long term say 5 years it will always depend on what deals we do with the rest of the world.
If in 5 years time if we are as dependant on European Trade as we are now it doesn’t look good unless we bring a lot of the goods and services we use within the EU back to the U.K.
That’s my lot I am afraid, seeing as you asked.
Hopefully nothing too controversial.
Oh, I nearly forgot the most important prediction :-
City will be Champions for the next 4 seasons with Newcastle mounting a very strong challenge for the Title in year 5 and we will win the Champions League during Pep’s tenure as Manager.

Ok. No nothing controversial at all.
Some stuff I agree with - Lib/dems will see a resurgence at the next election however I think Starmer will lead Labour into it and unless he can cobble something together with the LDems will lose and we will get another Tory shit show.
Like you (and Rascal it would seem) I like Angela Rayner. She is grounded and can connect with the voter a great deal better than Starmer could.

For me the priorities should be:
boost defence spending - the next few years are going to be very dangerous. I think in the here and now Russia is a more direct threat than China
We must get the economy moving again. The most obvious way is to remove some of the barriers to trade in Europe. Someone will have to wear big-boy pants and seriously engage with Europe. There is no going back to the EU but Single Market should be possible and would help and solve the simmering issue in NI.
Whatever government we get in the next 2/3 years have to try and rebuild trust both internationally and with the electorate. We have trashed so much of our standing in the last few years.
Scotland will have a second referendum. As a scot my heart says yes but my head is sceptical wether the current gang have the capability, bandwidth and MIPS to transition from now to independence. We shall see.
So many issues to address at home, the NHS, Care, Poverty, Pensions. We need the most competent Government we have ever had and we end up with the very worst.
You may have a more direct view than me but I suspect we have a significant resource gap in a number of sectors (tourism, agriculture, healthcare to name an obvious three). We have to address that through immigration and while we are at revert to a policy of fairness and compassion to asylum seekers. Currently our approach is morally repugnant and what our Government are doing in our name shames every one of us.

I cannot think of a time I have felt less proud to be a brit.

 

[halfmist]

Just for future reference, this is from the forum rules:

FWIW, no user had reported you, but a moderator felt that you were continually derailing the thread (no pun intended) so it was decided that a short thread ban was in order. Please feel free to PM me if you wish to discuss it further.

Thanks for having the courtesy to inform me of the reason Ric.
I have known all along who instigated it.
In my defence, It was because posters were taking me off topic
When someone posts his wife must be boring and ugly as I was posting whilst on holiday was bound to get some sort of reaction.
I think we can safely say if other posters had also kept to the rules and not got personally abusive to me and others that didn’t agree with them it would not have got to this.
Anyway, onwards and upwards, perhaps best if I keep off the politics website certainly for a while.

 

[BobKowalski]

If anyone can predict where we will be in the next 5 years with accuracy in this uncertain world we live in I will hold my hands up to them.
There are so many areas to cover I wouldn’t know where to start but I will throw a few in to the ring.
Unless there is a huge turnaround in his fortunes Boris will have gone within 12 months.
The Lib Dem’s will get a lot more seats in the next election, mainly off the Tories rather than them going back to Labour on the basis they never say anything controversial
The Labour Party will continue to struggle and I think the left are not happy with their Leader and will revolt and try to go in to the next election with someone else.
Starmer, just doesn’t come across as PM material and seems more Lib Dem than Labour
I like Lisa Nandy seems full of new ideas but not too radical
Incidentally I though Angela Rayner had a blinder today at PMQ’s she went off script when attacking Rabb who walked straight in to it and I found myself laughing, and at one point even clapping.
The first time I have heard the Labour back benches shouting more for a long time.
Could she be the next leader, no as she will struggle to get enough support within the party.
Her tongue will eventually get her hung as the saying goes
I think China is going to be a major problem for the next 5 years both militarily and economically. I don’t trust them.
Labour shortages through the U.K. economy will definitely result in an increase in wages for many, as workers can pick and chose.
This could result in a narrowing of pay differentials between skilled and unskilled workers.
Illegal immigration is going to be a major headache and whilst we desperately need more workers to help with the shortages, politically if we have an open door policy it could lead to unrest if uncontrolled.
I think traditional Labour voters are in favour of restricted immigration if it’s helping to push wages up for the low skilled so I think Labour have to tread carefully if they push for a relaxation in controls.
Finally Brexit, we are not going back in that’s for sure, has our economy suffered, hard to argue it hasn't short term.
Long term say 5 years it will always depend on what deals we do with the rest of the world.
If in 5 years time if we are as dependant on European Trade as we are now it doesn’t look good unless we bring a lot of the goods and services we use within the EU back to the U.K.
That’s my lot I am afraid, seeing as you asked.
Hopefully nothing too controversial.
Oh, I nearly forgot the most important prediction :-
City will be Champions for the next 4 seasons with Newcastle mounting a very strong challenge for the Title in year 5 and we will win the Champions League during Pep’s tenure as Manager.

Trade volume depends on two main factors, size and proximity. The US is large so attracts a high proportion of trade but this is suppressed by distance. Europe is large and is twenty miles away. The other hindering factor for the US is inter state trade barriers (EU countries have less inter trade barriers).

Trade deals will make little difference as non-tariff and regulatory barriers are the biggest issue, not tariffs, and removing these barriers requires regulatory alignment.

Europe will always remain our biggest trade area, simply because it is large and close. Our objective of focusing on the pacific region/US and pretending we are not a European country like all the other European countries, got screwed when Russia invaded Ukraine, reminding everyone that the security and prosperity of the UK is intertwined with that of Europe. It is a reminder we get every century.

 

[Gabriel]

we have a significant resource gap in a number of sectors (tourism, agriculture, healthcare to name an obvious three). We have to address that through immigration

The elephant in the room. These jobs are not the high-paying jobs that the electorate were told a select few immigrants would be attracted to fill but instead the lower-paying jobs that need to be done to keep society functioning and the economy growing. People will thus be attracted from Asia, Africa, and the Americas in ever increasing numbers, but they’ll need housing and use services as well, so the U.K. will be back to square one.

 

[MeeBeeGeeBee]

I didn't vote on Brexit either way cos it was more than a yes or no question.

The after-effects of it? Still unsure of them with the COVID and the war in Ukraine affecting things.

The landscape might be clearer if those things ever get resolved.

But for me, the world's in a ocean of shit and I'm just paddling along through it.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I didn't vote on Brexit either way cos it was more than a yes or no question.

The after-effects of it? Still unsure of them with the COVID and the war in Ukraine affecting things.

The landscape might be clearer if those things ever get resolved.

But for me, the world's in a ocean of shit and I'm just paddling along through it.

The impacts on the UK economy of Brexit are clear and well documented in the governments own projections for growth. Brexit has also caused resource shortages in a number of sectors. The impacts on UK citizens ability to interact/live/study in Europe are also pretty clear.

The downsides are clear and growing and have little to do with Ukraine which has its own impacts. At a time when we needed our economy to be strong because of Covid we were already suffering lower growth and investment because of Brexit.

That the Government and opposition parties choose not to highlight the growing damage to the UK and its citizens does not mean it isn't happening.

Agree with your last sentence though :-)

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

My perspective is somewhat different to many who voted to remain. I felt, once the vote was made we simply had to leave. To not do so would have torn the country apart. I also personally felt that leaving would be significantly more challenging than most people who voted leave had even begun to contemplate. I don’t think that makes me Nostradamus btw, I just didn’t see how it was possible to uncouple from such an arrangement without huge complications and inconvenience; a multi-lateral agreement spanning half a century is not akin to a golf club membership and I am still astonished that anyone believed it would be, which many who voted leave plainly did.

That said, given the vote, I don’t think it was a mistake to leave. We needed to try and make the most of it and get it out of our system as a nation, and unfortunately, but inevitably, it needs to get worse as part of that process, possibly for a number of years.

At the end of that, I expect us to rejoin, possibly at the expense of the pound and definitely and the expense of our national standing and dignity. I think we will be allowed to rejoin, but only when we’ve been put in our place and display an appropriate level of contrition. The process will hopefully serve as a salutary lesson to our hubris as a nation which caused us to self-harm in such a profound way.

We needed to lance the boil. It’s unfortunate it will come at such a high price but life is about making decisions and living with their consequences, and as a nation, we need to own this one.

All we witness today is as a consequence of the vote to leave. It is absolutely what we voted for and anyone who suggests otherwise hasn’t yet woken up to reality.