How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

[west didsblue]

My perspective is somewhat different to many who voted to remain. I felt, once the vote was made we simply had to leave. To not do so would have torn the country apart. I also personally felt that leaving would be significantly more challenging than most people who voted leave had even begun to contemplate. I don’t think that makes me Nostradamus btw, I just didn’t see how it was possible to uncouple from such an arrangement without huge complications and inconvenience; a multi-lateral agreement spanning half a century is not akin to a golf club membership and I am still astonished that anyone believed it would be, which many who voted leave plainly did.

That said, given the vote, I don’t think it was a mistake to leave. We needed to try and make the most of it and get it out of our system as a nation, and unfortunately, but inevitably, it needs to get worse as part of that process, possibly for a number of years.

At the end of that, I expect us to rejoin, possibly at the expense of the pound and definitely and the expense of our national standing and dignity. I think we will be allowed to rejoin, but only when we’ve been put in our place and display an appropriate level of contrition. The process will hopefully serve as a salutary lesson to our hubris as a nation which caused us to self-harm in such a profound way.

We needed to lance the boil. It’s unfortunate it will come at such a high price but life is about making decisions and living with their consequences, and as a nation, we need to own this one.

All we witness today is as a consequence of the vote to leave. It is absolutely what we voted for and anyone who suggests otherwise hasn’t yet woken up to reality.

I'm inclined to agree with you although I'm in two minds whether going for the full on sanction ourselves and piss everyone off Brexit that we seem to be going for is the right thing to do. The advantage is that it will go to shit a lot quicker than a pragmatic approach and as a country we will be able to move on to something more sensible with the Brexit loons marginalised and irrelevant. The alternative which would have been to go straight to the more sensible approach (remain in the SM via EFTA or something similar) would not have shut the Brexit loons up and we would be just prolonging the acrimony. Either way the can of worms opened by Cameron will cost the country a fortune in money, freedom and lost opportunities.

 

[west didsblue]

The real point of Brexit for Brexiteers was to break the EU, as Brexit cannot work otherwise. Instead, events have strengthened the EU and the UK’s absence has in some ways helped this process.

Whereas it's much more likely to break the UK, and there seems to be quite an appetite for that judging by the attitude of many English Brexiteers to Scotland and NI.

 

[Vic]

I see the Bank of England governor says the UK economy is not growing like other countries after Covid, but managed not to mention Brexit.

 

[Gabriel]

I’m not convinced EU nations will welcome the UK back. We are too divided on the issue and given our lack of commitment when we were members and our ongoing divide, there is no upside to the EU for having the UK back.

From the EU perspective, it is much preferable to keep the UK within the EU economic orbit, but parked on the outside politically. We have struggled to figure out our place in Europe since the 1950’s and everything we have tried from creating an EU alternative (EFTA), to helping reshape the EU with the creation of Single Market and its eastward expansion has ended in failure for the UK, even if other European nations have (ironically) benefited from our efforts.

The UK is the master of bad timing. We could have joined the EEC at the beginning but didn’t, then spent a decade trying to get in, then spent several decades pushing an economic agenda and trying to fight a political agenda (except you can’t have one without the other), decided (narrowly) to quit and then got hit with Covid and the Ukraine war, both events which saw the EU beginning to take actions in its own right. Actions that the UK would likely have resisted.

The real point of Brexit for Brexiteers was to break the EU, as Brexit cannot work otherwise. Instead, events have strengthened the EU and the UK’s absence has in some ways helped this process.

Funny old world.

Agreed. From 2008 onwards, the right-wing British media used the financial crisis to spend six years predicting the imminent collapse of the European Union. Didn't happen. It then used immigration for two years and predicted that would lead to the collapse of the European Union. Didn't happen. Fourteen years on and the EU instead continues to grow, and as the wealth is shared around the constituent parts, it will just become even stronger. You're right, the UK acted as an anchor while as a member, but now that has been lifted, the EU can move more quickly (comparatively) and integrate further.

 

[bluethrunthru]

I see the Bank of England governor says the UK economy is not growing like other countries after Covid, but managed not to mention Brexit.

Its the elephant in the room - the thing they cannot, dare not even mention - laughable if it weren't happening here

 

[Gabriel]

I see the Bank of England governor says the UK economy is not growing like other countries after Covid, but managed not to mention Brexit.

Read that this morning. Can only be because those European countries are unaffected by the war in Ukraine...

 

[Vic]

I’m not convinced EU nations will welcome the UK back. We are too divided on the issue and given our lack of commitment when we were members and our ongoing divide, there is no upside to the EU for having the UK back.

From the EU perspective, it is much preferable to keep the UK within the EU economic orbit, but parked on the outside politically. We have struggled to figure out our place in Europe since the 1950’s and everything we have tried from creating an EU alternative (EFTA), to helping reshape the EU with the creation of Single Market and its eastward expansion has ended in failure for the UK, even if other European nations have (ironically) benefited from our efforts.

The UK is the master of bad timing. We could have joined the EEC at the beginning but didn’t, then spent a decade trying to get in, then spent several decades pushing an economic agenda and trying to fight a political agenda (except you can’t have one without the other), decided (narrowly) to quit and then got hit with Covid and the Ukraine war, both events which saw the EU beginning to take actions in its own right. Actions that the UK would likely have resisted.

The real point of Brexit for Brexiteers was to break the EU, as Brexit cannot work otherwise. Instead, events have strengthened the EU and the UK’s absence has in some ways helped this process.

Funny old world.

Basically, we'll have to pay to get the benefits back. They won't want us to have the same clout we had (and veto other accessions*), EFTA won't want us as top dog in their club, some standalone deal may be the only way. "We could be like Turkey," as Farage didn't say.

* I want Zelensky to address the Tory conference and ask for their support for Ukraine's application to join the EU.

Tories for UKRIN.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Basically, we'll have to pay to get the benefits back. They won't want us to have the same clout we had (and veto other accessions*), EFTA won't want us as top dog in their club, some standalone deal may be the only way. "We could be like Turkey," as Farage didn't say.

* I want Zelensky to address the Tory conference and ask for their support for Ukraine's application to join the EU.

Tories for UKRIN.

Before any of that - and you are right we will not get the cushy deal we had if we try and get back in - we will have to reform internally politically. It will mean the banishment of any Brexit sentiment and politics from front line political life so in effect its at least a generation away. Simple fact is you just need to ask yourself the following -

If there was a change of heart in the UK would you believe it? - probably not
Would you negotiate anything with the current Govt and expect good faith - no
Would you wait until the conditions mean you ( the EU ) have the upper hand in negotiations - yes

 

[Vic]

My perspective is somewhat different to many who voted to remain. I felt, once the vote was made we simply had to leave. To not do so would have torn the country apart. I also personally felt that leaving would be significantly more challenging than most people who voted leave had even begun to contemplate. I don’t think that makes me Nostradamus btw, I just didn’t see how it was possible to uncouple from such an arrangement without huge complications and inconvenience; a multi-lateral agreement spanning half a century is not akin to a golf club membership and I am still astonished that anyone believed it would be, which many who voted leave plainly did.

That said, given the vote, I don’t think it was a mistake to leave. We needed to try and make the most of it and get it out of our system as a nation, and unfortunately, but inevitably, it needs to get worse as part of that process, possibly for a number of years.

At the end of that, I expect us to rejoin, possibly at the expense of the pound and definitely and the expense of our national standing and dignity. I think we will be allowed to rejoin, but only when we’ve been put in our place and display an appropriate level of contrition. The process will hopefully serve as a salutary lesson to our hubris as a nation which caused us to self-harm in such a profound way.

We needed to lance the boil. It’s unfortunate it will come at such a high price but life is about making decisions and living with their consequences, and as a nation, we need to own this one.

All we witness today is as a consequence of the vote to leave. It is absolutely what we voted for and anyone who suggests otherwise hasn’t yet woken up to reality.

Even if we simply had to leave, we didn't have to leave like this. We could have left as Leave promised, and still be in a free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border.

Once they started the hard Brexit nonsense, all democratic bets were off for respecting the result.

Our daft system then produced a GE where most people voted for parties at least wanting to offer a second chance to see sense, and an 80 seat majority for a party lying about getting Brexit done.

That's my perspective.

Still, low growth and more poverty is probably good for the environment.

 

[BrianW]

My view of the shitshow can be summarised by a song:
Working My Way Back to You.

At some point, we are going to have to swallow crow and admit we were wrong. This is never easy for a proud people. But the alternative is to gradually (or perhaps swiftly) turn into a capitalist version of North Korea.

Pragmatism is in short supply. That's why we are fucked. In realpolitik, you can't afford principles. And especially not old, outdated dusty ones from 1952.