How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

Saddleworth2 said:
The facts speak for themselves without anecdotes. Brexit has been a disaster for the Uk.

By the end of 2023, goods trade had shrunk to levels not seen since 2015. This isn't just part of a general slowing of goods trade around the world – the UK's goods exports and imports have contracted by 13.2 per cent and 7.4 per cent since 2019, by far more than any other G7 country

The average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit, the report reveals. * It also calculates that there are nearly two million fewer jobs overall in the UK due to Brexit – with almost 300,000 fewer jobs in the capital alone

Labour by ruling out rejoining even the single market will negate the most obvious lever for creating economic growth. Even tweaking round the edges to improve trade efficiency will require some realignment with EU rules.

It will continue to be a drag on the UK economy until someone puts their big boy pants on and tells the nation the truth.
Click to expand...
It’s also been a disaster for the Conservative Party. It chose to deal publicly with something that was largely a private concern, and dealing with its realities has now torn it asunder. Beyond the economic woes, the U.K. has now swapped mass migration of young, European kids, many of whom were only ever keen on staying temporarily, for an even larger number of people from farther afield, who will likely be less keen on leaving. However, while Brexit and Immigration, two sides of the same blade, continue to tear the Right apart, does the Labour Party want to address them seriously in this Parliament and give the Right an opportunity to coalesce? Maybe I’m being too cynical, but the coming weeks will be interesting. The darker Reeves paints the country’s finances and future, one would expect her to reach for the brighter colours on the palette, yet she’ll probably just daub a flash of red here and there and hope nobody notices. The Big Boy Pants will remain in the wardrobe, I suspect, under lock and key.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
The facts speak for themselves without anecdotes. Brexit has been a disaster for the Uk.

By the end of 2023, goods trade had shrunk to levels not seen since 2015. This isn't just part of a general slowing of goods trade around the world – the UK's goods exports and imports have contracted by 13.2 per cent and 7.4 per cent since 2019, by far more than any other G7 country

The average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit, the report reveals. * It also calculates that there are nearly two million fewer jobs overall in the UK due to Brexit – with almost 300,000 fewer jobs in the capital alone

Labour by ruling out rejoining even the single market will negate the most obvious lever for creating economic growth. Even tweaking round the edges to improve trade efficiency will require some realignment with EU rules.

It will continue to be a drag on the UK economy until someone puts their big boy pants on and tells the nation the truth.
Click to expand...
It's really very obvious stuff and neither labour nor the tories seem to have the courage to accept it. While for the tories that's no surprise, for Labour it isn't the vote loser they fear and they should grasp the opportunity. It also occcured to me the other day as well as the economic reasons a return of our freedom of movement solves or at least eases a lot of the migration issues.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
The facts speak for themselves without anecdotes. Brexit has been a disaster for the Uk.

By the end of 2023, goods trade had shrunk to levels not seen since 2015. This isn't just part of a general slowing of goods trade around the world – the UK's goods exports and imports have contracted by 13.2 per cent and 7.4 per cent since 2019, by far more than any other G7 country

The average Briton was nearly £2,000 worse off in 2023, while the average Londoner was nearly £3,400 worse off last year as a result of Brexit, the report reveals. * It also calculates that there are nearly two million fewer jobs overall in the UK due to Brexit – with almost 300,000 fewer jobs in the capital alone

Labour by ruling out rejoining even the single market will negate the most obvious lever for creating economic growth. Even tweaking round the edges to improve trade efficiency will require some realignment with EU rules.

It will continue to be a drag on the UK economy until someone puts their big boy pants on and tells the nation the truth.
Click to expand...

It’s funny you quoted one paragraph verbatim from the Resolution Foundation article but wilfully ignored the one beneath and the “conclusion”.

“But just as you might conclude the Brexit has been a disaster for trade, UK services trade is soaring. Service trade was growing quicker than goods long before Brexit - in the two decades since 2003, service trade (imports and exports) grew from 33 per cent of the UK’s total trade to 45 per cent. Just looking at exports, services are an even bigger 56 per cent share of the total. This service trade doesn’t appear to have taken notice of Brexit, growing 14.0 per cent between 2019 and 2023 - faster than France, the US and Japan. And by the end of 2023, UK services trade was 2.8 per cent above its 2010-2018 trend.”

It goes on to say how it’s difficult to assess service trade. The EU has us higher, the US lower, our own ONS numbers somewhere in between although nearer EU numbers than US.

It then concludes with a strategy - broadly ensure we change our good relationship with the EU to prevent any supply chain unraveling and focus on our services strengths beyond the EU with new innovative agreements.

Article here. It’s a fair assessment and balanced.

Britain’s post-Brexit trade patterns are finally emerging in the data • Resolution Foundation

www.resolutionfoundation.org www.resolutionfoundation.org
 
Gabriel said:
It’s also been a disaster for the Conservative Party. It chose to deal publicly with something that was largely a private concern, and dealing with its realities has now torn it asunder. Beyond the economic woes, the U.K. has now swapped mass migration of young, European kids, many of whom were only ever keen on staying temporarily, for an even larger number of people from farther afield, who will likely be less keen on leaving. However, while Brexit and Immigration, two sides of the same blade, continue to tear the Right apart, does the Labour Party want to address them seriously in this Parliament and give the Right an opportunity to coalesce? Maybe I’m being too cynical, but the coming weeks will be interesting. The darker Reeves paints the country’s finances and future, one would expect her to reach for the brighter colours on the palette, yet she’ll probably just daub a flash of red here and there and hope nobody notices. The Big Boy Pants will remain in the wardrobe, I suspect, under lock and key.
Click to expand...
I hope for the best but fear your are right. I guess we will soon know. Their first months in power will tell much. Are they seriously going to start at the foundations as surely they should or will we get a few cosmetic licks of paint. He has made a good start, I like many of his appointments.
metalblue said:
It’s funny you quoted one paragraph verbatim from the Resolution Foundation article but wilfully ignored the one beneath and the “conclusion”.

“But just as you might conclude the Brexit has been a disaster for trade, UK services trade is soaring. Service trade was growing quicker than goods long before Brexit - in the two decades since 2003, service trade (imports and exports) grew from 33 per cent of the UK’s total trade to 45 per cent. Just looking at exports, services are an even bigger 56 per cent share of the total. This service trade doesn’t appear to have taken notice of Brexit, growing 14.0 per cent between 2019 and 2023 - faster than France, the US and Japan. And by the end of 2023, UK services trade was 2.8 per cent above its 2010-2018 trend.”

It goes on to say how it’s difficult to assess service trade. The EU has us higher, the US lower, our own ONS numbers somewhere in between although nearer EU numbers than US.

It then concludes with a strategy - broadly ensure we change our good relationship with the EU to prevent any supply chain unraveling and focus on our services strengths beyond the EU with new innovative agreements.

Article here. It’s a fair assessment and balanced.

Britain’s post-Brexit trade patterns are finally emerging in the data • Resolution Foundation

www.resolutionfoundation.org www.resolutionfoundation.org
Click to expand...
but the economy as a whole is still smaller than it would have been irrespective of any service success.
 
blueparrot said:
It's really very obvious stuff and neither labour nor the tories seem to have the courage to accept it. While for the tories that's no surprise, for Labour it isn't the vote loser they fear and they should grasp the opportunity. It also occcured to me the other day as well as the economic reasons a return of our freedom of movement solves or at least eases a lot of the migration issues.
Click to expand...
Labour and the tories have both overestimated the vote losing capacity of being a bit bolder about plans to get closer to the EU.
The arguments for this are inescapable but there is a concern about a percentage of the population who would still accept economic disaster as long as they get their ‘sovereignty’
 
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