How do we resolve the Brexit mess?

[Alvin-blue-qhd]

Trump wants Europe pay more for NATO.
"If you don't pay enough, the US will quit."
But that is not ture. NATO works so well, europeans buy weapons from the US, huge money. Why quit?
I don't think any sensible European politician believe that BS.
It is just a narrative provided to the european public to make them believe "oh no, don't leave us ,we'll pay more"

 

[inbetween]

Trump wants Europe pay more for NATO.
"If you don't pay enough, the US will quit."
But that is not ture. NATO works so well, europeans buy weapons from the US, huge money. Why quit?
I don't think any sensible European politician believe that BS.
It is just a narrative provided to the european public to make them believe "oh no, don't leave us ,we'll pay more"

There is a consistent confusion over what NATO does and doesn't do. NATO is not run by the US, it is not a country and does not procure weapons.

If the US left NATO then procurement from the US would still continue because it's irrelevant. Saudi Arabia buys US weapons and Saudi Arabia is not a NATO country. Countries would still procur US weapons in any event because there is often very little alternative. If the UK could build its own bombs then it would but it can't so it buys American bombs, this has nothing do with NATO.

Let's put it another way, Luxembourg has a standing army of just 900 people and yet through NATO it is protected by US nuclear weapons. If the US ever withdrew from NATO then how on earth could Luxembourg achieve an equivalent level of defensive capability? In reality of course they're going to give in and pay more money.

The below graph sort of sums up the HUGE difference in scale which the EU can never match.

 

[Vic]

Probably. Which bit?

another lunatic rising up in the future

(to match those in the recent past)

 

[bluethrunthru]

The price to be paid for rejoining the EU being losing the pound and joining up to a pan-European military would be absolutely fucking hilarious.

we are not re-joining because even with the up-swell of support to do so here 27 other countries don't want to know. We are not a good faith actor as yet - we still have not implemented in full the Brexit that the last lot agreed with them so how can they even negotiate with us in good faith?
Also those 27 countries have their own shit to deal with at home and the EU Parliament has EU stuff to be getting on with.
Its going to take some years to prove we are worthy of negotiating with and that a change of Govt won't just mean Brexit rears its head again and say 10 years of negotiations prove to be wasted. Don't bother yourself with signing up to the Euro we need to implement things like the import and export checks we said we would and other agreements to show we are worth them even answering the door to when we knock.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Tbf, that rather large number for the US presupposes those monies are walled off for NATO, which, of course, they are not. However, for most of the other countries without a global footprint, their monies are directed at NATO.

While one might never see the “NATO money” number, one should be aware that, while still outsized in absolute terms, it may be much closer to the 2% requirement.

Additionally, the U.S. presence in many of the NATO countries brings with it innumerable economic gains for the host nation, which are completely separate from the pure military spend one thinks of.

 

[inbetween]

Tbf, that rather large number for the US presupposes those monies are walled off for NATO, which, of course, they are not. However, for most of the other countries without a global footprint, their monies are directed at NATO.

While one might never see the “NATO money” number, one should be aware that, while still outsized in absolute terms, it may be much closer to the 2% requirement.

Additionally, the U.S. presence in many of the NATO countries brings with it innumerable economic gains for the host nation, which are completely separate from the pure military spend one thinks of.

The one thing that binds NATO countries together is the pooled capability. It means that US fighter jets operate alongside the RAF, it means that NATO countries are protected by US/UK/French nuclear weapons. However, NATO cannot utilise assets that do not exist which is why absolute defence spending is important and NATO budget contributions aren't important at all.

I think the huge difference in defence spending is what Trump was perhaps threatening about, especially as less than half of NATO members contribute the 2% obligation.

I mention US defence spending purely because it just eclipses anything else in Europe or even the world. As a result the US has capabilities that most countries in NATO do not possess. It just makes sense that any US withdrawal would be a complete disaster and members would probably look to avoid it by caving in to any reasonable US demands.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

The one thing that binds NATO countries together is the pooled capability. It means that US fighter jets operate alongside the RAF, it means that NATO countries are protected by US/UK/French nuclear weapons. However, NATO cannot utilise assets that do not exist which is why absolute defence spending is important and NATO budget contributions aren't important at all.

I think the huge difference in defence spending is what Trump was perhaps threatening about, especially as less than half of NATO members contribute the 2% obligation.

I mention US defence spending purely because it just eclipses anything else in Europe or even the world. As a result the US has capabilities that most countries in NATO do not possess. It just makes sense that any US withdrawal would be a complete disaster and members would probably look to avoid it by caving in to any reasonable US demands.

Trump just wants to look and sound tough, and if he can force someone into a deal to make that happen, even better!

As a bully, he just needs someone to stand up to him and he folds like a cheap suit or lies like a rug to try to deflect from his personal failures. He will say anything to not be seen to be personally failing.

However, on the whole military budget, size vs percentage contribution and so on, I recently saw an interesting factoid…



That puts into perspective the magnitude of American military might and its projection into theatre.

 

[BobKowalski]

More great news from the FT on the biggest economic own goal in recent British history. Brexit voters can be proud of their contribution to British red tape and pointless expense. To be fair, people are being employed although it’s more in the spirit of old Communist regimes inventing pointless jobs for people to do :)

New UK Border Controls

‘One UK business, HunPro, a speciality importer of Hungarian foods, told the Financial Times it had to increase its staffing by 20 per cent just to deal with the paperwork from the new checks. The company, which employs 20 people, took on four more people and said it had incurred a total of £8,000 in extra charges since the border was introduced. “It’s just a huge extra expense for nothing,” said managing director Fulop Illes.’ @FT

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

More great news from the FT on the biggest economic own goal in recent British history.

Ridiculously understating things there!

 

[bluethrunthru]

More great news from the FT on the biggest economic own goal in recent British history. Brexit voters can be proud of their contribution to British red tape and pointless expense. To be fair, people are being employed although it’s more in the spirit of old Communist regimes inventing pointless jobs for people to do :)

New UK Border Controls

‘One UK business, HunPro, a speciality importer of Hungarian foods, told the Financial Times it had to increase its staffing by 20 per cent just to deal with the paperwork from the new checks. The company, which employs 20 people, took on four more people and said it had incurred a total of £8,000 in extra charges since the border was introduced. “It’s just a huge extra expense for nothing,” said managing director Fulop Illes.’ @FT

Here is the full article not behind a pay wall