How many points to win the league?

GX Blue said:
Our next 4 games:

Burnely A
Leicester H
Chelsea H
Arsenal A

All quite hard games.... I'd take 2 wins and a 2 draws out of them.
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what`s difficult about these fixtures.....is we play gooners in cup final before the leaguegames as well as top other cup/CL gmaes , i believe whoever wins the cup will lose the other league game. burnley away will be tough, lcfc at home will be tricky as will be chels.
 
The 'definitive' "How Many Games & Which Game Will We Win The League At?"

Yes, I'm sticking my neck on the line here, but here goes.

First, this is based on no games being re-arranged (Arse v City could be if we draw against Wigan).
Second, this is based on United being our closest rivals.
Third, this is based on us winning the derby (This bit is important).

Looking at United's fixtures between now and the derby, giving them the benefit of the doubt; Huddersfield(W), Newcastle(W), Palace(W), West Ham(W), Swansea(W) and then give them 4 points from their home games with Liverpool & Chelsea, This is 72 points by the time they play us (A game which I'm assuming they lose and we win). After the derby there will be 5 games left, 15 points available, giving a possible (but highly unlikely) 87 points for United.

So, City need 88 points by end of play at the derby (IMHO), as the PL will not officially acknowledge us as winners on goal difference, as they will claim United could win all remaining games, we could lose them all and the goal difference could be removed ;)

Looking at our fixtures and possible results (pessimistically), we have Burnley(A) 1, Leicester(H) 3, Arse(A) 1, Chelsea(H) 3, Stoke(A) 3, Brighton(H) 3, Everton(A) 1, giving us 83 points, plus 3 from the derby = 86 points. Yes, we could beat Burnley this weekend, just as we could lose to Arsenal, but as a slightly pessimistic view, this seems a balanced forecast for the next 8 PL games (Inc. the derby).

So, before the end of the derby we need a 2 point swing based on the above forecasts; Either United drop 2, we get 2 more, or United drop 1 and we get 1 more than the above forecasts.

Winning the title mathematically before the derby is possible, but we'd need a 5 point swing based on the above forecasts.

Winning the derby as a result of beating United (as this is their loss and our win) is DEFINITELY POSSIBLE :D

Disclaimer : I think I have my math correct ;)
 
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3 less points required after yesterday.
Incidentally we are one point more (68) than Everton got for the whole of last season (67) and they qualified for the UEFA cup.
 
mate just told me we can lose 3 and draw 1 and still break the points record (not sure if true)

if true, that's mental.
 
Impeccable One said:
The 'definitive' "How Many Games & Which Game Will We Win The League At?"

Yes, I'm sticking my neck on the line here, but here goes.

First, this is based on no games being re-arranged (Arse v City could be if we draw against Wigan).
Second, this is based on us retaining a goal difference advantage.
Third, this is based on United being our closest rivals.
Fourth, this is based on us winning the derby (This bit is important).

Looking at United's fixtures between now and the derby, giving them the benefit of the doubt; Huddersfield(W), Newcastle(W), Palace(W), West Ham(W), Swansea(W) and then give them 4 points from their home games with Liverpool & Chelsea, This is 72 points by the time they play us (A game which I'm assuming they lose and we win). After the derby there will be 6 games left, 18 points available, giving a possible (but highly unlikely) 90 points for United.

So, City need 90 points by end of play at the derby (IMHO).

Looking at our fixtures and possible results (pessimistically), we have Burnley(A) 1, Leicester(H) 3, Arse(A) 1, Chelsea(H) 3, Stoke(A) 3, Brighton(H) 3, Everton(A) 1, giving us 83 points, plus 3 from the derby = 86 points. Yes, we could beat Burnley this weekend, just as we could lose to Arsenal, but as a slightly pessimistic view, this seems a balanced forecast for the next 7 PL games.

So, before the end of the derby we need a 4 point swing based on the above forecasts; Either United drop 4 or more, we get 4 or more, or any combination of United dropping and City gaining that amounts to 4 points in our favor.

Winning the title mathematically before the derby seems a bit unlikely (Would need a 7 point swing based on the above forecasts), but still possible.

Winning the derby as a result of beating United (as this is their loss and our win) is DEFINITELY POSSIBLE :D

Disclaimer : I think I have my math correct ;)
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Good summation but thought there was 5 games after the derby.
 
GX Blue said:
Our next 4 games:

Burnely A
Leicester H
Chelsea H
Arsenal A

All quite hard games.... I'd take 2 wins and a 2 draws out of them.
Click to expand...

Thought the same thing, but Burnley is in a rough patch of form at the moment and are just as injury hit as we are. I'd back us to beat anyone at home, certainly Leicester although they're no pushovers - and Chelsea aren't exactly world beaters this season. I think we play Arsenal twice in about 5 days but as long as we beat them in the final I will be happy.
 
If my maths are right 94 points wins it, whatever any of our rivals do. Until another 9 wins are secured I’m not counting any chickens whatsoever... particularly as we seem to be up against 14 men every week
 
GeorgeHeslop'sTackle. said:
If my maths are right 94 points wins it, whatever any of our rivals do. Until those 8 wins are secured I’m not counting any chickens whatsoever... particularly as we seem to be up against 14 men every week
Click to expand...
We will not need 8 wins, as other teams (United/Chelsea) will drop points over the next 8 games. 8 wins is based on United winning ALL games between now and the end of the season.
 
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