How many points to win the league?

[M12Blue]

We will not need 8 wins, as other teams (United/Chelsea) will drop points over the next 8 games. 8 wins is based on United winning ALL games between now and the end of the season.

Having watched the scum yesterday, they will be lucky to come with 20 points. Heads are down, they know its over, Hopefully they sleepwalk a little into 6th.

 

[aguero93:20]

If my maths are right 94 points wins it, whatever any of our rivals do. Until another 9 wins are secured I’m not counting any chickens whatsoever... particularly as we seem to be up against 14 men every week

93.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

The 'definitive' "How Many Games & Which Game Will We Win The League At?"

Yes, I'm sticking my neck on the line here, but here goes.

First, this is based on no games being re-arranged (Arse v City could be if we draw against Wigan).
Second, this is based on us retaining a goal difference advantage.
Third, this is based on United being our closest rivals.
Fourth, this is based on us winning the derby (This bit is important).

Looking at United's fixtures between now and the derby, giving them the benefit of the doubt; Huddersfield(W), Newcastle(W), Palace(W), West Ham(W), Swansea(W) and then give them 4 points from their home games with Liverpool & Chelsea, This is 72 points by the time they play us (A game which I'm assuming they lose and we win). After the derby there will be 5 games left, 15 points available, giving a possible (but highly unlikely) 87 points for United.

So, City need 87 points by end of play at the derby (IMHO).

Looking at our fixtures and possible results (pessimistically), we have Burnley(A) 1, Leicester(H) 3, Arse(A) 1, Chelsea(H) 3, Stoke(A) 3, Brighton(H) 3, Everton(A) 1, giving us 83 points, plus 3 from the derby = 86 points. Yes, we could beat Burnley this weekend, just as we could lose to Arsenal, but as a slightly pessimistic view, this seems a balanced forecast for the next 8 PL games (Inc. the derby).

So, before the end of the derby we need a 1 point swing based on the above forecasts; Either United drop 1 or we get 1 more than the above forecasts.

Winning the title mathematically before the derby is possible, but we'd need a 4 point swing based on the above forecasts.

Winning the derby as a result of beating United (as this is their loss and our win) is DEFINITELY POSSIBLE :D

Disclaimer : I think I have my math correct ;)

Nice piece but goal difference won't count as a factor officially 'the man' would say they could win a game 30-0....

 

[Roachy]

Thanks, I've updated the post, it looks even better now :D

Totally agree. Good stuff mate.

 

[GeorgeHeslop'sTackle.]

We will not need 8 wins, as other teams (United/Chelsea) will drop points over the next 8 games. 8 wins is based on United winning ALL games between now and the end of the season.

Hope you’re right mate. I’ve been a blue for a bloody long time, and I guess, as is the case for a lot of “more experienced blues”, a bit of built in pessimism goes with the territory, and has done for years.

Ideally I would love to think we could get it done a week before the rags come to our place. To see both their fans and players squirming, like they’d just sh*t themselves, as the traditional pre-match guard of honour took place would simply be the icing on the dog’s b*llox.

 

[Roachy]

Having watched the scum yesterday, they will be lucky to come with 20 points. Heads are down, they know its over, Hopefully they sleepwalk a little into 6th.

Hope so pal, but the twats will pick up points because of the duffers that roll over for them.

 

[Impeccable One]

Nice piece but goal difference won't count as a factor officially 'the man' would say they could win a game 30-0....

Yeh, you're right. I've edited the post again and taken the GD out of it.

 

[Citizen in Pakistan]

I think if united drop points in next 2 games and we win our next 2. Theyll just shift the attention to cl making the possibility of guard of honor very much likely.

 

[chaddblue]

I think if united drop points in next 2 games and we win our next 2. Theyll just shift the attention to cl making the possibility of guard of honor very much likely.

They won’t do that cos if they drop points there’s every chance their top 4 spot is in danger

 

[aguero93:20]

They won’t do that cos if they drop points there’s every chance their top 4 spot is in danger

They've only actually managed to finish in the top 4 once in the last 4 seasons, so that's no reason to write off the possibility of them dropping points.