How many points to win the league?

[PannickAtTheDisco]

What's our track record on staying unbeaten until Christmas like?

Record at this stage in past seasons:

17/18 - Pld 19, W18, D1, L0, GS: 60, GC: 12, GD: +48, Pts: 55/57.
16/17 - Pld 19, W12, D3, L4, GS: 39, GC: 21, GD: +18, Pts: 39/57.
15/16 - Pld 19, W11, D3, L5, GS: 37, GC: 20, GD: +17, Pts: 36/57.
14/15 - Pld 19, W13, D4, L2, GS: 41, GC: 17, GD: +24, Pts: 43/57.
13/14 - Pld 19, W13, D2, L4, GS: 54, GC: 21, GD: +33, Pts: 41/57.
12/13 - Pld 19, W11, D6, L2, GS: 34, GC: 16, GD: +18, Pts: 39/57.
11/12 - Pld 19, W14, D3, L2, GS: 53, GC: 16, GD: +37, Pts: 45/57.
10/11 - Pld 19, W10, D5, L4, GS: 28, GC: 16, GD: +12, Pts: 35/57.

So we tend to end up in a similar ball-park, the times where we get over 40 points is when we go on to win/challenge for the title a bit more actively. We have had notable drops, particularly away from home in the new year, where in 11/12 we lost to Sunderland, Arsenal, Everton, drew at West Brom etc. and in 14/15 we lost multiple times away from home to lose out to Chelsea in the run-in. We have also had some poor starts which left us chasing and our season was then ended fairly early on (the past 2 years), so strong starts are vital. The only time we had a fairly rough start and did well was 13/14, where we lost at Villa, Cardiff and really struggled on the road in the early weeks but then hit sensational form and made it up. This year is obviously remarkable, but hopefully in future years we can set a standard at the 45+ point mark at this stage and be right in contention each season.

 

[Fame Monster]

It's pretty much over.

It would take the greatest collapse in English football history from a team that is (rightly) being talked about as the best in English history.

The question is, will we get to 100 points?

 

[Deleted member 81382]

17/18 - Pld 19, W18, D1, L0, GS: 60, GC: 12, GD: +48, Pts: 55/57

13/14 - Pld 19, W13, D2, L4, GS: 54, GC: 21, GD: +33, Pts: 41/57

11/12 - Pld 19, W14, D3, L2, GS: 53, GC: 16, GD: +37, Pts: 45/57

In terms of our two Premier League winning seasons under Mancini and Pellegrini, we are 10 points and 14 points ahead of 11/12 and 13/14 respectively.

That is truly astonishing.

 

[christened at st marks]

19 point lead with no games in hand for teams below us, when we play the Rags is all I'm asking, guard of honour, oh so sweet.

 

[TravisBickle]

In terms of our two Premier League winning seasons under Mancini and Pellegrini, we are 12 points and 16 points ahead of 11/12 and 13/14 respectively.

That is truly astonishing.

Your maths is a bit out mate.
It’s a 14pts & 10pts difference ;)

 

[Impeccable One]

In the US they often use a ‘magic number’. This is calculated based on the maximum the 2nd place team can reach. So as of the morning of 26th, City’s magic number is 99 based on us retaining our goal difference advantage.

Some don’t use the maximum the 2nd place team can achieve as that’s unrealistic. Instead using the average points per game for the 2nd place team. This would mean City’s magic number is 84, just 29 points more than we have now.

I see no reason why 90 points will not guarantee the title, but could be as few as 85 based on the season so far.

Having it wrapped up the game before the derby is possible if us & United keep on the same average points per game we’ve achieved so far. It’s also possible that this game could decide the title !

 

[JASR]

Your maths is a bit out mate.
It’s a 14pts & 10pts difference ;)

http://www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?league=england&stats=4-Manchester-City

Has a nice graphic going back to 2009 on current position versus other years.

Plus many many more stats.

 

[TravisBickle]

http://www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?league=england&stats=4-Manchester-City

Has a nice graphic going back to 2009 on current position versus other years.

Plus many many more stats.

Cheers mate. Quality site.
I miss statto, looks like it’s gone for good :(

 

[Deleted member 81382]

Your maths is a bit out mate.
It’s a 14pts & 10pts difference ;)

Right you are mate, clearly I had too many snowballs this year.

 

[kippaxneil]

Chelsea won with 93 last year and Spurs were 2nd with 86. The most the scum can put up is 99 but realistically the best they could hope for is 89 which would be 47 of 57 points. That would be 15 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. I honestly don’t know how they’d pull that off.

If they did City would need 35 points which would be something like 10 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses.

Until I looked at these numbers I didn’t realize how much of a miracle it would take for City to lose.

I was thinking the same the other day about what's needed to win it.

90 should win it comfortably. In which case, having already got 55 we can afford a 20 point drop-off in the 2nd half of the season and still finish on 90.

We've created some valuable wiggle room especially with games left to play at Anfield, Goodison and Emirates to factor in.