How many points will be needed to win the league? (74 GD)

[domalino]

At our current rate of 2.27 Pts per game we would finish with 86 points
Rags 1.95 would get 74
Leicester 1.86 would get 71
Liverpool 1.73 would get 66

Proves nothing but we are currently in a strong position but I don’t subscribe to the view that it’s all over, we come from behind to win it in 2012, 2014 and 2019, if we take our foot of the gas we could be on the other end of such a comeback.

And on a similar point United would need to get 2.33 to get to 80 while City would need to drop to 1.67 for that to go to goal difference. To put that into context, United will need to have centurion season from from for the rest of the season and City would need to have the worst form since 08-09.

Our points per game since the Spurs game is 2.71.

I think that's a better indicator of our future performance than including the games like Leicester, Leeds, West Ham etc. when we didn't have Laporte, didn't have Stones next to him, hadn't worked out playing without Silva, had no fit strikers.

Not sure we'll keep up 2.71 until the end of the season, but we're much better than 2.27.

 

[twosips]

It's quite mad to think that as brilliant as we have been right now, winning so many god damn games in a row, that even if we won every single from now until the end of the season, we'd still not match the centurions campaign. A quite outstanding achievement that.

 

[Brightwell Bros.]

Our points per game since the Spurs game is 2.71.

I think that's a better indicator of our future performance than including the games like Leicester, Leeds, West Ham etc. when we didn't have Laporte, didn't have Stones next to him, hadn't worked out playing without Silva, had no fit strikers.

Not sure we'll keep up 2.71 until the end of the season, but we're much better than 2.27.

Agreed. 2.27 is under Pep's overall average at City and would win the league most years, 2.71 is above even the centurion season so probably a bit high, but anywhere between the two will very, very comfortably win the league this year. Like I say, I can understand people being nervous but the level of drop off we'd need to have here would be much, much worse than fans being too cocky on a forum and it coming back to haunt them. We'd need to hit mid-table form for the rest of the season.

 

[OB1]

I still don't understand why some City fans don't want to win the CL. I get UEFA are corrupt and the history boys are doing everything to ban us or slander our club, but the best way to stick it to them is to win the CL.

It would be a huge punch in the face for UEFA to see City lift it. We've got to go and win it. Fuck booing the anthem. That gets us very few points. Seeing City lift it is the ultimate fuck you to UEFA.

Winning the Champions League would be huge.

Showing the middle digit to UEFA and cronies would be a bonus.

 

[alexmcity]

As things stand, the probablility that we win the title is very high, say 0,8, but it's not 1.

The probability for our title win back in 2012 with 6 games to go was extremely low but we won it. So, the calculations in this thread may make you feel less anxious but they do not guarantee the title. Remember that the probability of Liverpool failing to win 5 consecutive games at Anfield with scoring just 2 goals in those 5 games was incredibly low back in December.

That said, I think that even 78 pts will be enough for the title, especially IF United drop 5 pts over the next 4 games. Think also that we are likely to go to 88+ pts. But it's all about probabilities which can widely fluctuate after two poor results in a row.

Still, if we win the next 5 games, we are champions 99 %.

 

[@BluePhil8]

I personally think we'll be the only team to finish with 80+ points.

That means:
United dropping 11 more points from a possible 45. (P15, W11, D1, L3 - I don't even think they'll do this well)
Leicester dropping 9 more points from a possible 45.
Everton dropping 9 points from a possible 51.
Villa dropping 7 points from a possible 51.
Liverpool dropping 6 points from a possible 45.
Chelsea and West Ham dropping 5 points from a possible 45.
Spurs dropping 5 points from a possible 48.
Leeds dropping 1 point from a possible 48.

And I think we’ll hit 90+

 

[Manchester33]

I personally think we'll be the only team to finish with 80+ points.

That means:
United dropping 11 more points from a possible 45. (P15, W11, D1, L3 - I don't even think they'll do this well)
Leicester dropping 9 more points from a possible 45.
Everton dropping 9 points from a possible 51.
Villa dropping 7 points from a possible 51.
Liverpool dropping 6 points from a possible 45.
Chelsea and West Ham dropping 5 points from a possible 45.
Spurs dropping 5 points from a possible 48.
Leeds dropping 1 point from a possible 48.

Looking at it like that makes you think high seventies will be enough, doesn't it.

 

[Manchester33]

As things stand, the probablility that we win the title is very high, say 0,8, but it's not 1.

The probability for our title win back in 2012 with 6 games to go was extremely low but we won it. So, the calculations in this thread may make you feel less anxious but they do not guarantee the title. Remember that the probability of Liverpool failing to win 5 consecutive games at Anfield with scoring just 2 goals in those 5 games was incredibly low back in December.

That said, I think that even 78 pts will be enough for the title, especially IF United drop 5 pts over the next 4 games. Think also that we are likely to go to 88+ pts. But it's all about probabilities which can widely fluctuate after two poor results in a row.

Still, if we win the next 5 games, we are champions 99 %.

I agree with pretty much all of this, but I think we're benefiting from the fact that all the other clubs are out of form (with the exception of Chelsea). I can't see United or Leicester being consistent from not until the end of the season. Nor would you envisage us collapsing.


In a normal year I think the probability of us winning the league now would be around 85%, but in this year, with the other teams form it's higher because our squad will enable us to keep up our form for longer.

 

[LongsightM13]

These probability based fellas are pretty bullish about our chances...

 

[oddfellows]

It's quite mad to think that as brilliant as we have been right now, winning so many god damn games in a row, that even if we won every single from now until the end of the season, we'd still not match the centurions campaign. A quite outstanding achievement that.

And one the media brush under the carpet time and again.

Like holding all the domestic trophies in a season.

Never to be repeated in my opinion.

More interested in how much Dias and Cancelo cost us.

 

[Corky]

These probability based fellas are pretty bullish about our chances...

View attachment 10104

Interesting that palace and brighton still have a chance. The odds don't make city that certain and they take a profit.

 

[Semper aggressus]

However many points we end up with, that is how many it’ll take to win the league.

I believe we’ll actually win it quite comfortably this year now.

 

[alexmcity]

I agree with pretty much all of this, but I think we're benefiting from the fact that all the other clubs are out of form (with the exception of Chelsea). I can't see United or Leicester being consistent from not until the end of the season. Nor would you envisage us collapsing.


In a normal year I think the probability of us winning the league now would be around 85%, but in this year, with the other teams form it's higher because our squad will enable us to keep up our form for longer.

Form can change dramatically, e.g. our form after our draw with WBA and Liverpool's form after their draw with WBA. Nobody in their right mind would expect that Liverpool couldn't win in 5 home games in a row and would win only 1 point from WBA, Burnley and Brighton with scoring in the process only 1 goal. It seemed completely impossible before Christmas, yet it happened. And it seemed highly unlikely that we would win the next 14 games in all competitions, especially without Aguero, yet it happened.

Bottom line, it's not won until it's won. The unlikely happens in football all the time. It's likely that we are going to win it, but there is no guarantee. I was very confident when we lost against Leicester that we would come good and I'm still confident that we will have a good season but the truth is that nothing is certain yet.

 

[trumpton]

More interested in how much Dias and Cancelo cost us.

I'm not sure how much we paid for them to be honest. Shall I stick it into Google or stick the telly on tomorrow night where we will be kindly informed every 5 minutes!

 

[Manchester33]

Interesting that palace and brighton still have a chance. The odds don't make city that certain and they take a profit.

You're looking at the odds of being relegated for Brighton and Palace?

 

[Manchester33]

I'm not sure how much we paid for them to be honest. Shall I stick it into Google or stick the telly on tomorrow night where we will be kindly informed every 5 minutes!

The rule is that you have to take their real transfer fees, include all the possible add ons that haven't happened yet, include the wages for the contract they've signed, double that figure and then round it up to the nearest £10m. hope this helps.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

We clearly haven't won anything as of yet this season. However the table don't lie... the title is currently 'ours to lose', which is a great position to be in and not one I thought would be the case after the result at Spurs in November. But therein lies the lesson - things can change and quickly.

Things can change very quickly. One tiny mistake in a split second in one game can change everything, never mind another Covid outbreak.

That Mane header early doors the other day after poor defending from both Zinchenko and Cancelo could have seen a completely different game and outcome. And Spurs have got some good results against us in recent years (even when we’ve given them the biggest twatting I've ever seen in a big game in English football last season they still scored 2 goals in a 2-2 draw).

For me, there’s no such thing as the “title” until the games are approaching to where it’s mathematically won. There’s a long way to go until then. For now, it’s just one or three points at a time.

 

[mancity1]

And I think we’ll hit 90+

Looking at Each team only Everton , West Ham and Villa have no European commitments ( Leeds are not a factor in even getting close to 80 points ).

I expect Chelsea and Liverpool to still be our major rivals for the title but I cannot see them reaching 80 points.

 

[xgorton]

Interesting that palace and brighton still have a chance. The odds don't make city that certain and they take a profit.

City to win the League best odds are 1/16 with one bookie,other odds 1/18,1/20,1/30.

 

[Corky]

You're looking at the odds of being relegated for Brighton and Palace?

i was thinking while <1% to win the title is correct for them, displaying it that way looked very generous.

I would round down 0.0000000001 to 0% rather than give them the same Chelsea and Leicester :)