How many trophies will we win?

jaigurugoat said:
Sadly the chances are very slim. As pleased as I was about beating Swansea, I'm concerned that the FA Cup could derail our CL and PL chances. I do think we'll win the Cup but to win all four with the fixture pileup we now have would take something absolutely extraordinary.
Click to expand...

We have only the semi to worry about then the FA cup is done till after the seasons over.
Hardly think the brighton game is going to derail our season, we have 2 relatively easy games before it in fulham and cardiff and if we win the semi can cincentrate on the other 2.

Personally I,think the CL may affect us wining the league as spurs ajax/juve will all be tough games.

Priorites should be
Win remaining 3 comps but if not posible
Win league 1st and foremost,
Win league & FA cup (as seems more likely)
Win league amd champs league (tougher than PL & FAC)

A domestic treble is most certainly do-able and should happen, champs league would be a bonus.
 
TravisBickle said:
That plastic rag from Nottingham is fucking shitting himself in case City piss all over Utd’s 99 treble winning team by becoming the first English team to do the quadruple.
Click to expand...
They all are. They’ve only just nailed their colours to the ‘treble better achievement than 100 points’ mast, so they especially don’t want us to exceed that record.

Huge, huge ask, but I think this group of players is capable, both mentally and ability wise. It only takes two or three bad results and all we’ve got left is the FA Cup, however (assuming we beat Brighton) which I guess is what makes it so exciting. This season could still take so many different turns.

Can’t wait for the madness to start on Saturday.
 
route46 said:
True odds

Champions league 3.5 (28%)
Prem 1.45 (69%)
FA cup 1.4 (71%)

combined odds 7.1 or just over 6/1
Click to expand...
This discussion is getting confused between probabilities and odds and probabilities derived by fans and those from bookmakers over individual events which are then being combined together.

I think it's more informative to work out the Probability for each event yourself then convert it into a combined Probability for the quadruple and then quote that in odds for those people that are more used to betting odds. In my opinion betting odds are not a natural way to discuss Probability.

Competition------Probability
Premier League ----(60%)
FA Cup----------------(45%)
Champions League--(13%)

(To explain the Champions League Probability from Spurs 0.65, Semi 0.50 Final 0.40. Anyone who quotes probability higher than this is highly questionable because the probability of 3 50/50 events occurring is 12.5%).

Quadruple Combined Probability using my footballing judgement is: 3.5%. In betting odds: about 28 to 1 (I think. I don't use betting odds, but I do use statistics).

The bookmakers odds for the quadruple are 9/2. That's why they make money because the real probability of the quadruple happening is still tiny, and they are making it appear much more likely that it is.
 
its a Barm said:
Give it up people, leave it to the media, one trophy at a time, see where it gets us.
Click to expand...

Correct, fulham next worry about that then going back top against cardiff.
Semi final after and then forget about cup if in the final until seasons over.
Champs league will sort itself out either way.
 
urban genie said:
Correct, fulham next worry about that then going back top against cardiff.
Semi final after and then forget about cup if in the final until seasons over.
Champs league will sort itself out either way.
Click to expand...

100% agree. Lets concentrate on one one game at a time. Dont jump ahead and forget important games.

Like next Saturday for example. ;)
 
Marvin said:
This discussion is getting confused between probabilities and odds and probabilities derived by fans and those from bookmakers over individual events which are then being combined together.

I think it's more informative to work out the Probability for each event yourself then convert it into a combined Probability for the quadruple and then quote that in odds for those people that are more used to betting odds. In my opinion betting odds are not a natural way to discuss Probability.

Competition------Probability
Premier League ----(60%)
FA Cup----------------(45%)
Champions League--(13%)

(To explain the Champions League Probability from Spurs 0.65, Semi 0.50 Final 0.40. Anyone who quotes probability higher than this is highly questionable because the probability of 3 50/50 events occurring is 12.5%).

Quadruple Combined Probability using my footballing judgement is: 3.5%. In betting odds: about 28 to 1 (I think. I don't use betting odds, but I do use statistics).

The bookmakers odds for the quadruple are 9/2. That's why they make money because the real probability of the quadruple happening is still tiny, and they are making it appear much more likely that it is.
Click to expand...


Where are u getting the probabilities from?

City have 80% chance of qualifying against Spurs and will almost certain be favs in the final regardless of who the other finalist is.
 
Marvin said:
This discussion is getting confused between probabilities and odds and probabilities derived by fans and those from bookmakers over individual events which are then being combined together.

I think it's more informative to work out the Probability for each event yourself then convert it into a combined Probability for the quadruple and then quote that in odds for those people that are more used to betting odds. In my opinion betting odds are not a natural way to discuss Probability.

Competition------Probability
Premier League ----(60%)
FA Cup----------------(45%)
Champions League--(13%)

(To explain the Champions League Probability from Spurs 0.65, Semi 0.50 Final 0.40. Anyone who quotes probability higher than this is highly questionable because the probability of 3 50/50 events occurring is 12.5%).

Quadruple Combined Probability using my footballing judgement is: 3.5%. In betting odds: about 28 to 1 (I think. I don't use betting odds, but I do use statistics).

The bookmakers odds for the quadruple are 9/2. That's why they make money because the real probability of the quadruple happening is still tiny, and they are making it appear much more likely that it is.
Click to expand...

I can see the logic behind what you're saying, especially the bit about you can't use the bookies odds as a guide to probability of something actually happening, but your numbers are way off in my opinion. There is no way we are 28/1 for the quadruple. Realistically we're about 8/1 or 7/1 I reckon.

There is no way we're only 12.5% for the Champions League. I reckon you can double that to 25%. Using your own logic,which I agree with, you need to apply a probability to each outcome, and in this instance there are 8 outcomes for the outright winner that each need to add up to 100%.

I reckon something more realistic for the Champions League would look like this

Man City 25%
Jueventus 22%
Barca 20%
Liverpool 18%
United 5%
Spurs 5%
Ajax 3%
Porto 2%
 
Last edited:
Wafty Cranker said:
I can see the logic behind what you're saying, especially the bit about you can't use the bookies odds as a guide to probability of something actually happening, but your numbers are way off in my opinion. There is no way we are 28/1 for the quadruple. Realistically we're about 8/1 or 7/1 I reckon.

There is no way we're only 12.5% for the Champions League. I reckon you can double that to 25%. Using your own logic,which I agree with, you need to apply a probability to each outcome, and in this instance there are 8 outcomes for the outright winner that each need to add up to 100%.

I reckon something more realistic for the Champions League would look like this

Man City 25%
Jueventus 22%
Barca 20%
Liverpool 18%
United 5%
Spurs 5%
Ajax 3%
Porto 2%
Click to expand...
Well it's only opinion. It all comes down to your assessment of the likely outcome of each tie. I quote below each round and the Probability of a City win.

Quarter Finals: City v Spurs, 0.65
Semi-Finals: 0.50
Final: 0.40

Multiply the numbers out (0.65 x 0.50 x 0.40) and that's my Probability for City winning the Champions League (13%).

Anyone can do likewise for each leg and see what they get. Convert it to odds if you want and then compare to the bookmakers.

Everyone's likely outcomes will be slightly different depending on how we assess the ranking of each side. I would put City on a par with Juve, and slightly behind Barcelona. Of course Barcelona or Juve could well get knocked out so my Probability is possibly on the low side, but I don't think it's that unreasonable.
 
Marvin said:
Well it's only opinion. It all comes down to your assessment of the likely outcome of each tie. I quote below each round and the Probability of a City win.

Quarter Finals: City v Spurs, 0.65
Semi-Finals: 0.50
Final: 0.40

Multiply the numbers out (0.65 x 0.50 x 0.40) and that's my Probability for City winning the Champions League (13%).

Anyone can do likewise for each leg and see what they get. Convert it to odds if you want and then compare to the bookmakers.

Everyone's likely outcomes will be slightly different depending on how we assess the ranking of each side. I would put City on a par with Juve, and slightly behind Barcelona. Of course Barcelona or Juve could well get knocked out so my Probability is possibly on the low side, but I don't think it's that unreasonable.
Click to expand...

It's cool Marvin. I'm not having a go, I just don't agree with your numbers. If you're saying City are 13% to win, and Juve at around 13%, and say Barca at 14%. That is only 40%, which means you're giving the other 5 teams a 60% chance of lifting the European Cup, which I disagree with. I'd put City, Barca and Juve all at 20% or over, with Liverpool not far behind.

Overall, I'd put as at around 25% for the Champs League, 80% for the FA Cup, and around 67% for the league, and obviously 100% for the League Cup. when you convert that to odds for the quadruple it comes in around 15/2. In my opinion that's about right.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top