Hurricane Milton

rickmcfc said:
The 9 dead, 8 were from 1 tornado on the other side of Florida, not being affected by the hurricane directly at the time.

My point this was dubbed “storm of the century”. In reality the hurricane 2 weeks ago caused far more casualties and damage.

All the weather models predicted the wind sheer would start to destroy the core of Milton as it approached the western coastline of Florida, but at that point the media hype and mass evacuations couldnt be undone so to save face they ran with the storm.
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I presume you don’t have insurance of any sort , why would you… it’s only about balancing out of risk vs benefit, clearly something you avoid
 
rickmcfc said:
The 9 dead, 8 were from 1 tornado on the other side of Florida, not being affected by the hurricane directly at the time.

My point this was dubbed “storm of the century”. In reality the hurricane 2 weeks ago caused far more casualties and damage.

All the weather models predicted the wind sheer would start to destroy the core of Milton as it approached the western coastline of Florida, but at that point the media hype and mass evacuations couldnt be undone so to save face they ran with the storm.
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I was going to write a long post in response to this but, as I and many others have already explained at length the concepts that refute your apparent stance in this thread, I will instead just go with this gif:

giphy.gif
 
Judging the reaction, I don’t feel that some really understand the impossible challenge that is managing a situation like this. Both as a meteorologist and as a civil servant.

As my old Lagrangian Dynamics professor used to say “a weather forecast 3 days into the future is a guess with extra steps, 2 days it’s likely wrong, 1 day it’s likely right, 0 days and you can look out of your window.” The situation goes from completely indiscernible chaos to a game of statistics in a very short space of time.

You see a hurricane like this forming three days out, the forecasts will get more certain as time passes, but you don’t have time. There are millions of people whose lives depend on you weighing the odds and giving them advice as soon as is practicable. If you delay, people will die. And every hour you wait matters.

Anybody who doesn’t understand the weight of that responsibility can only have a near sociopathic lack of empathy or they simply don’t understand the inherent uncertainty involved. The people asking folks to evacuate are human beings who quite rightly didn’t want to wake up tomorrow being responsible for the deaths of hundreds of people because of their inaction.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
Judging the reaction, I don’t feel that some really understand the impossible challenge that is managing a situation like this. Both as a meteorologist and as a civil servant.

As my old Lagrangian Dynamics professor used to say “a weather forecast 3 days into the future is a guess with extra steps, 2 days it’s likely wrong, 1 day it’s likely right, 0 days and you can look out of your window.” The situation goes from completely indiscernible chaos to a game of statistics in a very short space of time.

You see a hurricane like this forming three days out, the forecasts will get more certain as time passes, but you don’t have time. There are millions of people whose lives depend on you weighing the odds and giving them advice as soon as is practicable. If you delay, people will die. And every hour you wait matters.

Anybody who doesn’t understand the weight of that responsibility can only have a near sociopathic lack of empathy or they simply don’t understand the inherent uncertainty involved. The people asking folks to evacuate are human beings who quite rightly didn’t want to wake up tomorrow being responsible for the deaths of hundreds of people because of their inaction.
Click to expand...
It’s all survivor and hingdsight bias.

The people that denounce the “alarmist” warnings and “exaggerated” precautions would be the same ones lambasting officials if they hadn’t evacuated and many more people were injured or killed.

Can you imagine the public outcry, after Helene, if officials said “well, it’s a Category 5 now, but could be a Category 3 by the time it makes landfall, which is currently projected to be at the most vulnerable population centre in the entire US, who has been riding their luck without a direct hurricane hit for more than 100 years and are well overdue, and yeah Katrina was a Category 3 when it hit New Orleans, but the worst case scenario may not actually happen, and it’s a lot of inconvenience evacuating everyone, so we are going to roll the dice, let everyone stay in their homes, and hope for the best!”

And one of the reasons there were fewer injuries and deaths is because those in the likeliest danger were evacuated.
 
It is becoming impossible to afford to live in these coastal areas. I am over here in Florida at the moment and on a news report it says a lot of insurance companies are going bust or not offering home insurance in these areas. Insurance costs up to $20000 per year to insurance a normal sized single storey house
 
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