Everyone is guessing about the future, apart from few well established facts related to death and taxes :)
But not all guesses are equally good or bad!
Guesses can be more and less informed, more and less grounded in facts, etc.
I think that Naylor's info about Brighton contains more truth than groundless speculation, so it's closer to 100% than to 1%. His record provides evidence for this, it's not a groundless guess.
Your generalisations are guesses too btw, and not very good in this case imo :)
Time will tell (that I'm right :) )