It's Quiet thread 14 - 'do one' edition

decmancity

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Scott Carson’s contact at an end on Friday. Is he going back to Derby?
Be interesting to see whos on the bench for CL games. Bravo was kept off the squad because he was leaving and about to sign for another team so wasn't going to risk injuries. I presume Carson has extended for a month to be on the bench.
 

Bluster

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I agree with Big Dave.
Our xg rating shows that we’re not clinical enough. We are a brilliant team and dominate almost every game we play but I suspect Sterling, both Silvas, Jesus, Mahrez alL score fewer goals than they are expected to with the chances they get. I think I’ve even seen that Aguero is the only heavyweight scorer In the league to score fewer than his x rating. I’m not suggesting that he’s not a brilliant striker as he clearly is.
The two Tottenham games and Southampton away and our penalty woes are cases in point. Even the derby in the centurion season. We should have been 6-0 up at half time. This is masked most games as we create so many chances but I don’t believe our players are clinical.
i also agree that we have the converse problem with conceding from very little.
I’d be interested to see the goals scored and conceded per minute of possession for us and the opposition. I suspect it’s similar as we sure 3 goals for every one conceded.
 

kaz7

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Be interesting to see whos on the bench for CL games. Bravo was kept off the squad because he was leaving and about to sign for another team so wasn't going to risk injuries. I presume Carson has extended for a month to be on the bench.
Bravo hasn't gone anywhere yet,we wouldn't go into the cl with Carson as back up,bravo had a injury for a while
 

OliMCFC

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On Carson, I think the idea was to sign him to be the new Richard Wright, if not I think that young lad Bazunu is taking that spot for the season
 

Thenumber1blue

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I think you are missing the point mate. Yes, we have some fantastic players who can score important goals but if we had a player that could score when it mattered we would have given the dippers a run for their money. We steamroller teams for fun but also lose games that we shouldn’t because we don’t score sometimes when we are dominating. I don’t want a tit for tat exchange so will just leave it there.
Correct
 

ctid1894

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25 Sep 2018
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I agree with Big Dave.
Our xg rating shows that we’re not clinical enough. We are a brilliant team and dominate almost every game we play but I suspect Sterling, both Silvas, Jesus, Mahrez alL score fewer goals than they are expected to with the chances they get. I think I’ve even seen that Aguero is the only heavyweight scorer In the league to score fewer than his x rating. I’m not suggesting that he’s not a brilliant striker as he clearly is.
The two Tottenham games and Southampton away and our penalty woes are cases in point. Even the derby in the centurion season. We should have been 6-0 up at half time. This is masked most games as we create so many chances but I don’t believe our players are clinical.
i also agree that we have the converse problem with conceding from very little.
I’d be interested to see the goals scored and conceded per minute of possession for us and the opposition. I suspect it’s similar as we sure 3 goals for every one conceded.
The problem is xG is measured quantitatively, despite clearly being portrayed as a qualitative statistic. You might as well shit in your hands, clap and see how many shit particles hit your face.

It's all due to our style of play, playing against packed defences makes it considerably more difficult to score. Think of a free kick, put 3 men in the wall and then put 8 men in the wall and tell me which is easier to score, only xG can't account for that variable because it's purely subjective. What measurement do you use for that?
 

Bluster

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The problem is xG is measured quantitatively, despite clearly being portrayed as a qualitative statistic. You might as well shit in your hands, clap and see how many shit particles hit your face.

It's all due to our style of play, playing against packed defences makes it considerably more difficult to score. Think of a free kick, put 3 men in the wall and then put 8 men in the wall and tell me which is easier to score, only xG can't account for that variable because it's purely subjective. What measurement do you use for that?
I get that it’s not perfect but if your theory is correct then the best teams would on average suffer with low xg rates as they are mostly in control of games playing more defensive teams. If you don’t think the xg rate has any validity then all we have left is opinion.

I would suggest that our penalty conversion rate indicates we lack clinical players. I also think that most of us would recognise that quite a few of our players are far from good finishers, whatever their overall qualities are.
 

PrezIke

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I agree with Big Dave.
Our xg rating shows that we’re not clinical enough. We are a brilliant team and dominate almost every game we play but I suspect Sterling, both Silvas, Jesus, Mahrez alL score fewer goals than they are expected to with the chances they get. I think I’ve even seen that Aguero is the only heavyweight scorer In the league to score fewer than his x rating. I’m not suggesting that he’s not a brilliant striker as he clearly is.
The two Tottenham games and Southampton away and our penalty woes are cases in point. Even the derby in the centurion season. We should have been 6-0 up at half time. This is masked most games as we create so many chances but I don’t believe our players are clinical.
i also agree that we have the converse problem with conceding from very little.
I’d be interested to see the goals scored and conceded per minute of possession for us and the opposition. I suspect it’s similar as we sure 3 goals for every one conceded.
We've been tackling this problem since Pellegrini it feels like, except perhaps in the Centurions season.

Almost very player we try to bring in is about either finishing or creating "easier" goal scoring opportunities. Pep has referred to it repeatedly since his 1st season.

We haven't signed a bonafide World Class scorer and if we're being honest both Sane and Jesus did not pan out as we'd hoped they would have at this juncture (partially why he's gone really).

There is something to be said that "chances created" and xG, for all of their value, don't quite measure what goes on when you are a team that is constantly in attack mode in a nation that cuturally prides itself on resolute defending.

Look at Juve. Italy has some similarities regarding valuing defence, and they try to bring Sari in with all his brilliant footall tactics he was able to do at Napoli, but when you're Napoli the lower quality sides don't quite come in with that desire I suspect as when they play Juve.

Juve has tried a more attacking oriented style and they suffer from more vulnerabilities in defence than they had under Allegri or Conte.

I wonder if having to put so much energy week in and week out against sides that aren't so focused on attacking and are more physical, has a psychological effect and is also a testament to why the back to back title wins plus the other trophies mean so much.

Perhaps I'm wrong.

We never got nor will likely get Mbappe and again haven't signed that kind of player since Aguero, in attack.

Next summer seems like the one to me where we look to break the bank on such a player if they are available (if we don't pull something insane out of nowhere this summer).

But there is even part of me that wonders if that is enough, because for all of the talk of being clinical. I recall hearing our fans even criticise Aguero for his misses in key games as well that have cost us dearly.
 

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