Jack Grealish

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Keeper! said:
Some people's obsession with Mr Grealish on here is slightly scary.

Wait for him to arrive and deliver, and if and when he does, no problem with the fan boy worship.
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Does that not work both ways? Wait until he is here and if he doesn’t deliver then you can call him shit? One way as ever
 
Bluesince88 said:
Does that not work both ways? Wait until he is here and if he doesn’t deliver then you can call him shit? One way as ever
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Why would I want to call him sh1t?

When we signed Kyle Walker for 50m I had my doubts, it was big money at the time for what seemed a decent RB, nothing more.

Walker has proved to be a total bargain and high class player.
 
Ashleymcduff said:
I used to work for a odds comparison site,
Bookies hate losing money and love taking money. Of course transfers go wrong but when a deal looks good to it goes odds on.

The more people think they are ITK they will bet, they think they’ve got the edge on the bookie, you wouldn’t bet on a transfer unless you thought you had some inside info !!!

If there wasn’t so many villa fans prob backing him to stay he would be long odds on.

when I was a semi pro at Weymouth , Steve Claridge was our manager , he said

redknapp is leaving Southampton to go back to Pompey , we all lumped on at 16/1 within the hour redknapp was down to 1-4 on.

i don’t bet myself on transfers after having Sanchez at 7-1 and seeing him go 1/10.

also Messi last year I had a nibble, lol fingers burnt.
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Working for an Odds Comparison site should give you an insight into the way Bookmakers work in comparatively small markets as the transfer one is.

Punters normally betting in large stakes would be able to get a reasonable bet on something that can be affected by "ITK's" such as where a player is going but would still be treated as suspicious if there was a pattern that clearly indicated information was out there. Any small punters trying to get a Larger than usual bet on the same event particularly at big odds would get short shrift and be offered a bet at a lower stake or lower price.

On your Redknapp comparison, most bookmakers have Epos systems linked to Head Office Servers, they can put parameters on the type of market where the Manager would be alerted to an unusual bet and he would have to call head office. The 16/1 on Redknapp wouldn't last long if a group of punters in the same area had even a tenner each on it.

It's a good few years ago now (before modern tech), as an example of a non regular punter trying to place a bet in the shop I managed and wanted a novelty bet (Miss World, Eurovision, etc) and it would take out £50 or more, eg £5 at 10/1 we had to call HO to authorise it. The normal notifications on non novelties were bets that took out £500 (not multiples) or stakes of £200.

The Grealish odds won't move much on a series of small bets as it's a binary market but if any punter (existing or especially new) for instance enquired about having a large out of character bet the alarm bells would be ringing. If it's now 5/6 on Grealish winning or losing there won't be a lot of activities from the run of the mill punters, there's no value and the % profit for the bookmaker is around 10% for a 2 horse race, years ago it would yield no more than 5%, bookmakers doing what they do best.
 
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