Jack Grealish

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bluemoon32 said:
That Villa forum is mental.
" 200m plus KDB"
" Foden isn't half the player Grealish is"
" plastic club with plastic fans"
"bluemoon forum is insane"

I agree with the last one in fairness ha
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I never realised just how bad they actually are. I know they’re sensitive because their best player wants to leave and better himself but still.

I do wonder when the greedy (not mentioned in your post but no doubt it’s one of their arguments) narrative will end though. Every player in recent history we’ve got from Villa has gone on to win things: Barry, Milner and Delph all while they’ve been relegated, come back up, avoided relegation again purely due to a glitch in technology and then finished 8th.
 
hammocity said:
Working for an Odds Comparison site should give you an insight into the way Bookmakers work in comparatively small markets as the transfer one is.

Punters normally betting in large stakes would be able to get a reasonable bet on something that can be affected by "ITK's" such as where a player is going but would still be treated as suspicious if there was a pattern that clearly indicated information was out there. Any small punters trying to get a Larger than usual bet on the same event particularly at big odds would get short shrift and be offered a bet at a lower stake or lower price.

On your Redknapp comparison, most bookmakers have Epos systems linked to Head Office Servers, they can put parameters on the type of market where the Manager would be alerted to an unusual bet and he would have to call head office. The 16/1 on Redknapp wouldn't last long if a group of punters in the same area had even a tenner each on it.

It's a good few years ago now (before modern tech), as an example of a non regular punter trying to place a bet in the shop I managed and wanted a novelty bet (Miss World, Eurovision, etc) and it would take out £50 or more, eg £5 at 10/1 we had to call HO to authorise it. The normal notifications on non novelties were bets that took out £500 (not multiples) or stakes of £200.

The Grealish odds won't move much on a series of small bets as it's a binary market but if any punter (existing or especially new) for instance enquired about having a large out of character bet the alarm bells would be ringing. If it's now 5/6 on Grealish winning or losing there won't be a lot of activities from the run of the mill punters, there's no value and the % profit for the bookmaker is around 10% for a 2 horse race, years ago it would yield no more than 5%, bookmakers doing what they do best.
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yes there’s no value in punting odds on and now a days I try to arb as much as I can , arbing is the only way you can make money, having a edge and the value.

as someone said in this thread earlier. They put £100 on at 2.25 and it went into 1.83.

the market moves with the money , I imagine villa fans think there is value in him staying.
 
bluemoon32 said:
That Villa forum is mental.
" 200m plus KDB"
" Foden isn't half the player Grealish is"
" plastic club with plastic fans"
"bluemoon forum is insane"

I agree with the last one in fairness ha
Click to expand...
Hi Villa fan here, just to bring a bit of clarity:
This isn’t true, No villa fan thinks 200m + KDB is a suitable offer. Think most are in the camp £120m, although there are strong rumours (denied by our manager and CEO) that he has a buyout clause. If that’s £100m, he goes for £100m. Our fans don’t think Foden isn’t half the player Grealish is. IMO, they are similar ability now, Foden has higher ceiling.

here’s the Villa take on the transfer:
Just as you have your ITK’s saying Grealish is a done deal, our ITK’s are saying he’s 100% staying/signed a deal a few weeks back. So invariably, whenever talksport post “Grealish to Man City done deal £100m” neutrals (and City fans) bet on it, the odds shorten, Villa fans see the odds widening and think “I can make some good money here”. So there’s a constant shortening and widening of the odds.

also I guess you guys probably missed it but Collymoore who sat with Jack’s dad at the Euro semis basically indicated to Twitter he’d signed/signing a new deal at Villa. He also posted a picture with Jack after the final saying he couldn’t wait to see him in a Villa shirt next season. If Jack was to turn round and go City now, Collymoore has either been on a massive wind up, or Jack has suddenly changed his mind. We’ve had it before (with Delph) but this would hurt more coming from a local lad.
But that’s where we are, there’s a fair amount of delusion in every fan base and Man City is certainly no exception. The good thing is he is back from Croatia this weekend so we’ll know the score by Monday/Tuesday.
Don’t gamble anything you’re not willing to lose.
 
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