That’s usually how it goes. One big factor in the race in North Carolina is the gubernatorial election. In the last two elections Republicans have turned out not just for the Presidential nominee but on the strength of the down-the-ballot candidates for Governor who have been marginally less insane.
This time round Republicans have put Mark Robinson on the ballot who is, to put it mildly, an absolute crackpot. He has stood on a platform of removing science from schools, has been extremely anti abortion referring to it as “genocide” (that is until it was revealed he paid for his girlfriend to have one in the 80s), he’s even engaged in a bit of holocaust denial for good measure. Of course the reason he’s in the race is because Trump made it so.
There’s a very good possibility Robinson is going to end up being a good reason for more moderate GOPers to stay at home. He isn’t mobilising votes outside of the ones Trump is already mobilising, the Venn diagram of their bases is just a circle.