Mr Kobayashi
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 1 Oct 2020
- Messages
- 17,100
I'm pleased you're convinced, as that was the point I was making. Prior to Truss, Labour couldn't take any kind of win for granted.
Even after Truss, a huge part of the lead has been down to Reform surging, and ex-Tory voters saying they didn't know if they'd vote. Labour were polling around 40% before Truss, and have settled to around 44% over the past year.
Plenty of polling experts have been arguing the lead was still relatively fragile until relatively recently, and there was still an expectation that it might drop considerably as we got closer to an election. If you remember, after 2019, it was argued that Labour needed something like a 12% lead just to get a majority of 1 - that's a lead that could never have been guaranteed. The current strategy of targeting the centre, means that Labour have spread out the vote, and are likely to get a majority with a much smaller vote.
Do you think that's honest?