Keir Starmer

metalblue said:
For the rest of voters <immigration> doesn’t really matter so much. Although someone needs to tell the Tory leadership hopefuls it’s not as big an issue as they think it is.
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I am not sure I agree with that. It's always coming out as high on priority lists when the general population is polled. Whether that is because they are brainwashed, or because they experience real issues, who knows but perception is everything.

But the other reason I am not sure I agree is not because of the issue itself but because of the impact upon votes. For as long as the vote on the right is split, Labour will remain in power. Somehow, the right has gone to find a unified platform that people on the right can vote for. IMO that necessitates the Tories moving to accommodate Reform voters. If they do not, then people will continue to vote Reform whilst there is no realistic possibility of Reform forming a government. So all they are doing is keeping Labour in power. Admittedly, I think a lot of people will defect from Labour to deform, especially after Starmer has given them 2 fingers and called many of them racist thugs. But not enough to enable Reform to become the next government, of course.

For the Tories, this really is serious. They could be in opposition for the next 20 years (or forever) if they cannot get this right. They could turn into the next Libdems, out of power for the next decades.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I am not sure I agree with that. It's always coming out as high on priority lists when the general population is polled. Whether that is because they are brainwashed, or because they experience real issues, who knows but perception is everything.

But the other reason I am not sure I agree is not because of the issue itself but because of the impact upon votes. For as long as the vote on the right is split, Labour will remain in power. Somehow, the right has gone to find a unified platform that people on the right can vote for. IMO that necessitates the Tories moving to accommodate Reform voters. If they do not, then people will continue to vote Reform whilst there is no realistic possibility of Reform forming a government. So all they are doing is keeping Labour in power. Admittedly, I think a lot of people will defect from Labour to deform, especially after Starmer has given them 2 fingers and called many of them racist thugs. But not enough to enable Reform to become the next government, of course.

For the Tories, this really is serious. They could be in opposition for the next 20 years (or forever) if they cannot get this right. They could turn into the next Libdems, out of power for the next decades.
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Not if Labour carry on like they started. Usually there is a honeymoon period when a new party is elected. Labour have pissed off almost everybody except train drivers and junior doctors.
 
The Tories are in a cleft stick.

Position themselves 'left' (by Tory standards) and they lose the Reform types.

Position themselves 'right' and all the sophisticated, educated Tory voters who hate Brexit will go Lib-Dem.

So they can't win.

The fundamental problem with Johnson's voting coalition was that it covered conflicting views.

a) Traditional types, often ex-Labour, mainly working class, mainly northerners, who are xenophobic but want more public spending, especially on them.

b) Traditional types, usually long-term Tories, mainly middle class, mainly southerners, who are (frankly) more sophisticated. Not intolerant of race or sexual inclination, they would like lower taxes for people who 'work hard'. (Them.) Brexit not a real selling point.

These two visions are completely incompatible in the long term and can only be held together by fudging. Johnson was, of course, very good at fudging. His successors were less so.
 
BrianW said:
The Tories are in a cleft stick.

Position themselves 'left' (by Tory standards) and they lose the Reform types.

Position themselves 'right' and all the sophisticated, educated Tory voters who hate Brexit will go Lib-Dem.

So they can't win.

The fundamental problem with Johnson's voting coalition was that it covered conflicting views.

a) Traditional types, often ex-Labour, mainly working class, mainly northerners, who are xenophobic but want more public spending, especially on them.

b) Traditional types, usually long-term Tories, mainly middle class, mainly southerners, who are (frankly) more sophisticated. Not intolerant of race or sexual inclination, they would like lower taxes for people who 'work hard'. (Them.) Brexit not a real selling point.

These two visions are completely incompatible in the long term and can only be held together by fudging. Johnson was, of course, very good at fudging. His successors were less so.
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On top of this, their talent pool is severely diminished. Are there any of the new Tory MPs that are showing that they are potential ministers or leaders?

You only have to look at their leadership contest to see they are currently scraping the bottom of the barrel.
 
BrianW said:
The Tories are in a cleft stick.

Position themselves 'left' (by Tory standards) and they lose the Reform types.

Position themselves 'right' and all the sophisticated, educated Tory voters who hate Brexit will go Lib-Dem.

So they can't win.

The fundamental problem with Johnson's voting coalition was that it covered conflicting views.

a) Traditional types, often ex-Labour, mainly working class, mainly northerners, who are xenophobic but want more public spending, especially on them.

b) Traditional types, usually long-term Tories, mainly middle class, mainly southerners, who are (frankly) more sophisticated. Not intolerant of race or sexual inclination, they would like lower taxes for people who 'work hard'. (Them.) Brexit not a real selling point.

These two visions are completely incompatible in the long term and can only be held together by fudging. Johnson was, of course, very good at fudging. His successors were less so.
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A similar problem confronts Starmer, his fudge needs to be even stickier though if Labour are going to retain power.
 
BrianW said:
The Tories are in a cleft stick.

Position themselves 'left' (by Tory standards) and they lose the Reform types.

Position themselves 'right' and all the sophisticated, educated Tory voters who hate Brexit will go Lib-Dem.

So they can't win.

The fundamental problem with Johnson's voting coalition was that it covered conflicting views.

a) Traditional types, often ex-Labour, mainly working class, mainly northerners, who are xenophobic but want more public spending, especially on them.

b) Traditional types, usually long-term Tories, mainly middle class, mainly southerners, who are (frankly) more sophisticated. Not intolerant of race or sexual inclination, they would like lower taxes for people who 'work hard'. (Them.) Brexit not a real selling point.

These two visions are completely incompatible in the long term and can only be held together by fudging. Johnson was, of course, very good at fudging. His successors were less so.
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You raise a good point about losing votes to the Lib Dems if they buddy up to Reform.

However, I am not sure that is such a big problem as you make out. First of all the pro-Brexit faction is ever diminishing. Not because people have inherently changed their minds, or because it been such a great success, but because it's done, it's history and IMO there are not many people who would actually vote to change it back. The debate has moved on. It ripped the Tory party apart, but now it's barely discussed.

Peronally I also think Brexit has not been as bad as a lot of Remainers - myself included - suggested that it would be. So yes, they might lose a few votes, but not a huge proportion I would think.

They may at the same time win back a lot of people who are traditional Tories but who could not be arsed to vote. A lot of people don't regard the current Tory party as being remotely Tory. They (and i) are not at all happy with taxes as high as they are, and government interference as pervasive as it is. A return to more "Thatcherite" values would get some people back to the polling station. I wonder how many Tories did not vote for Reform because they felt it would be a waste of time, but could not bring themselves to vote Conservative?
 
johnny crossan said:
Its the Sky News presenter from Wigan, Kay Burley.
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Thank you..... is she the one who got suspended for breaking lock down regulations?
Any road up she was dreadful. Absolutely dreadful. She ought to watch our Joe (Hart) interviewing Rodri, now there was an interview with no interruptions and just calm and dignified. :-)
 
paulchapo said:
Not if Labour carry on like they started. Usually there is a honeymoon period when a new party is elected. Labour have pissed off almost everybody except train drivers and junior doctors.
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I had a look at opinion polls after recent elections, and the last real "honeymoon period" was Blair in 1997. That's hardly a surprise as they were going in on a wave of positivity.

In quite a lot of the elections since, the opposition has been ahead in the polls within months. The Tories went up slightly after 2010, but so did Labour as that was due to the Lib Dem vote being decimated. Labour were ahead though after a few months.

No-one since has really had a boost in the polls.

Most of Labour's commitments are about big delivery - the huge numbers of houses, the net zero stuff etc. They have five years to show some results, and doing things positively, and they appear to be gambling on people associating all this negativity with the Tories.
 
bluenova said:
I had a look at opinion polls after recent elections, and the last real "honeymoon period" was Blair in 1997. That's hardly a surprise as they were going in on a wave of positivity.

In quite a lot of the elections since, the opposition has been ahead in the polls within months. The Tories went up slightly after 2010, but so did Labour as that was due to the Lib Dem vote being decimated. Labour were ahead though after a few months.

No-one since has really had a boost in the polls.

Most of Labour's commitments are about big delivery - the huge numbers of houses, the net zero stuff etc. They have five years to show some results, and doing things positively, and they appear to be gambling on people associating all this negativity with the Tories.
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The problem is they got in on a ticket of making people better off, and the penny is rapidly dropping that yes maybe they might improve public services but they are going to make most people worse off. At least anyone who doesn't work in the public sector anyway.

They said they would bring energy costs down. Now they are going up 10%. They said no tax increases on working people. Is anyone prepared to bet that they won't increase taxes on cigarettes, booze and petrol? I think those increases are nailed on. They will also IMO raid people's pensions. Do working people have pensions. yes they do. I cannot imagine Labour increasing allowances either, so everyone will be paying more tax due to fiscal drag. Again, another lie = working people paying increased tax. They are going to be found out as being lying c***s.

Then when utter bollocks like that idiot Miiiibrain's renewables subsidies kick in, energy costs will go up even higher. The clamour for more pay rises like the ones Labour have just dished out, have barely started, so the black hole willl still be gaping and we'll have more tax rises. Rinse and repeat. it is all downhill from here.
 
Chippy_boy said:
The problem is they got in on a ticket of making people better off, and the penny is rapidly dropping that yes maybe they might improve public services but they are going to make most people worse off. At least anyone who doesn't work in the public sector anyway.

They said they would bring energy costs down. Now they are going up 10%. They said no tax increases on working people. Is anyone prepared to bet that they won't increase taxes on cigarettes, booze and petrol? I think those increases are nailed on. They will also IMO raid people's pensions. Do working people have pensions. yes they do. I cannot imagine Labour increasing allowances either, so everyone will be paying more tax due to fiscal drag. Again, another lie = working people paying increased tax. They are going to be found out as being lying c***s.

Then when utter bollocks like that idiot Miiiibrain's renewables subsidies kick in, energy costs will go up even higher. The clamour for more pay rises like the ones Labour have just dished out, have barely started, so the black hole willl still be gaping and we'll have more tax rises. Rinse and repeat. it is all downhill from here.
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It's utterly demoralising. Once you could choose a political party on their manifesto and if they got elected you were happy with your choice and probably benefitted from it. Now you're just fucked whoever you elect unless you're a very wealthy person.
 
Chippy_boy said:
The problem is they got in on a ticket of making people better off, and the penny is rapidly dropping that yes maybe they might improve public services but they are going to make most people worse off. At least anyone who doesn't work in the public sector anyway.

They said they would bring energy costs down. Now they are going up 10%. They said no tax increases on working people. Is anyone prepared to bet that they won't increase taxes on cigarettes, booze and petrol? I think those increases are nailed on. They will also IMO raid people's pensions. Do working people have pensions. yes they do. I cannot imagine Labour increasing allowances either, so everyone will be paying more tax due to fiscal drag. Again, another lie = working people paying increased tax. They are going to be found out as being lying c***s.

Then when utter bollocks like that idiot Miiiibrain's renewables subsidies kick in, energy costs will go up even higher. The clamour for more pay rises like the ones Labour have just dished out, have barely started, so the black hole willl still be gaping and we'll have more tax rises. Rinse and repeat. it is all downhill from here.
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They clearly got in on a manifesto of things being shit, that it would take time to fix the shit, and that eventually people would be better off.

Their big plan was growth, and I assume that they're hoping the housing and energy stuff will be a big driver in that, but clearly that's a long term thing.
 
I think people underestimate the depth of shit this country is in.

The Tories did not seriously expect to win the last GE. But if they had, they'd have had to implement savage cuts, especially to achieve their agenda of cutting tax. They already did two unaffordable NI cuts which were a sort of time-bomb Labour now has to defuse. They wanted to do more because Tories assume less tax = more growth. Well, maybe, but that's a long-term strategy too and hard to bring about when public services are already on the floor.

There are no easy answers. I only wish there were, as I would be the first to advocate them. I believe that the Chancellor has rather masochistically locked herself into a very rigid and artificial corset, but I understand the reasoning and can imagine the reaction if she went out and borrowed a load of cash to subsidise current spending. Just as generals always fight the last war, so politicians are heavily influenced by recent political events. Two words - Corbyn and Truss. Neither will be copied.
 
BrianW said:
I think people underestimate the depth of shit this country is in.

The Tories did not seriously expect to win the last GE. But if they had, they'd have had to implement savage cuts, especially to achieve their agenda of cutting tax. They already did two unaffordable NI cuts which were a sort of time-bomb Labour now has to defuse. They wanted to do more because Tories assume less tax = more growth. Well, maybe, but that's a long-term strategy too and hard to bring about when public services are already on the floor.

There are no easy answers. I only wish there were, as I would be the first to advocate them. I believe that the Chancellor has rather masochistically locked herself into a very rigid and artificial corset, but I understand the reasoning and can imagine the reaction if she went out and borrowed a load of cash to subsidise current spending. Just as generals always fight the last war, so politicians are heavily influenced by recent political events. Two words - Corbyn and Truss. Neither will be copied.
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I think most do understand how bad the Tories left the country and those NI cuts were there to cause maximum damage. That was a black hole of over 40 Bn and then the hidden amount of 20 odd Bn just stunk the place out from them. Like laying a huge turd on the PMs desk then deciding to smear it all over the walls for good measure, leaving us, the people of the UK, to clean it up.

And, because of Truss, they had to give assurances to the purse holders of the country that they wouldn’t go gung-ho, basically leaving no wiggle room.

Some pain ahead and I’m hoping this government, and the next, can rebuild the decaying remains of what has been left behind.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
I really like her.
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A lot of "normal" people do as well. Hence the constant attacks on her for having the audacity of being a northern woman who worked hard to get to where she is today.

Just watch the way Badenoch treats her in parliament.
 
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