Mancini/Pellegrini rumours (10/05/13) (cont)

[SuperSilva]

Re: Manchester City close on Pellegrini (merged)

200

pence right :)

just kidding... well done mate!

 

[bernabias home shirt]

Re: Manchester City close on Pellegrini (merged)

200

When did you put that on and who with?

 

[Sky Blue]

Re: Manchester City close on Pellegrini (merged)

200

pence right :)

just kidding... well done mate!

Well done on what....?

Those odds mean fuck all. Couple years back it was similar for Rafa to go back to Liverpool.

 

[OB1]

Re: Manchester City close on Pellegrini (merged)

Do you gamble at all?

I ask because if you do you will likely understand that bookies play the mug punter like a cheap fiddle.

If you want to 'convince' a bloke with no info to part with his cash simply create movement in the market even if no money has been placed and bobs your uncle a few pillocks will jump on in the hope of catching a bit of the action.

Lets also not forget that SkyBet are actively promoting that market right now which would generate further revenue. Are they doing that because they know Mancini is safe and every penny wagered is profit ro because they like to pay out?

You decide.

No I don't bet.

By going odds on, how are the bookies going to generate bets, are they trying to push people into the lengthening odds on other people?

Or are they trying to encourage people to think backing MP is free money?

As you say, If you put £300 on at 1/3 you win a £100 not bad, but you are encouraged to put on a bigger stake for a reasonable return, giving that the odds are almost a sure thing.
Id rather put £5 on Mourinho at 16/1, bit like the grand national haha

Alternatively, as was case with Moyes, someone knows something and has put money down and the bookies have responded to the betting patterns (as opposed to trying to sucker punters).

I don't know the reasons but it is interesting.

Of course, none of us wants big press stories on the morning of the Cup Final saying the manager is going.

 

[SuperSilva]

Re: Manchester City close on Pellegrini (merged)

200

pence right :)

just kidding... well done mate!

Well done on what....?

Those odds mean fuck all. Couple years back it was similar for Rafa to go back to Liverpool.

well done for putting a bet! Not for winning it...

When Manu is installed as Manager then I will say to Worsley ... "well done on your winnings mate".

stop presuming you clown, all this mancini and pelligrini talk has got you all crazy! :)

 

[fbloke]

Re: Manchester City close on Pellegrini (merged)

Do you gamble at all?

I ask because if you do you will likely understand that bookies play the mug punter like a cheap fiddle.

If you want to 'convince' a bloke with no info to part with his cash simply create movement in the market even if no money has been placed and bobs your uncle a few pillocks will jump on in the hope of catching a bit of the action.

Lets also not forget that SkyBet are actively promoting that market right now which would generate further revenue. Are they doing that because they know Mancini is safe and every penny wagered is profit ro because they like to pay out?

You decide.

No I don't bet.

By going odds on, how are the bookies going to generate bets, are they trying to push people into the lengthening odds on other people?

Or are they trying to encourage people to think backing MP is free money?

As you say, If you put £300 on at 1/3 you win a £100 not bad, but you are encouraged to put on a bigger stake for a reasonable return, giving that the odds are almost a sure thing.
Id rather put £5 on Mourinho at 16/1, bit like the grand national haha

There is also the issue that the market for any event is decided on by the bookies for their own reasons.

I wont bore you with the overround but you can have a read of this if you so desire -

<a class="postlink" href="http://betting.football-data.co.uk/overround.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://betting.football-data.co.uk/overround.php</a>

And calculate on any event here

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.sportsbettingindex.com/odds-calculator.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.sportsbettingindex.com/odds-calculator.html</a>

You can then see what 'profit' margin a bookie is running at on a market.

But be wary of shifts in odds as it can be very fake.

If, for example a punter has a 10 horse accumulator win 9 having won and the final race still to be decided a bookie is well within his rights to play dirty.

A punter who has placed those 10 horses in the AM may have expected odds of 3/1 for the first 9 and lumped on a 20/1 in race 10 for the hell of it.

But when the outsider in race ten goes off its price is a EVS even though it stands no chance of winning because a bookie has limited his exposure by placing bets on the 20/1 shot himself.

It can sometimes take very little money to bring a price down too, perhaps just a few hundred quid.

 

[Sky Blue]

Re: Manchester City close on Pellegrini (merged)

pence right :)

just kidding... well done mate!

Well done on what....?

Those odds mean fuck all. Couple years back it was similar for Rafa to go back to Liverpool.

well done for putting a bet! Not for winning it...

When Manu is installed as Manager then I will say to Worsley ... "well done on your winnings mate".

stop presuming you clown, all this mancini and pelligrini talk has got you all crazy! :)

You're the one who is presuming. Fucking hell, thick as fuck!

As for calling him, Manu, oh dear!

 

[celf]

Re: Manchester City close on Pellegrini (merged)

we don't want him....forza mancini

 

[bluedreaming]

Re: Manchester City close on Pellegrini (merged)

I wi be severely pissed off if Mancini goes now. Perfect time to show solidity and build together, change is pointless. I really will be angry.

Totally agree lets keep the continuity especially while them lot are dealing with change for the first time in years.
It makes no sense

 

[rastus]

Re: Manchester City close on Pellegrini (merged)

No I don't bet.

By going odds on, how are the bookies going to generate bets, are they trying to push people into the lengthening odds on other people?

Or are they trying to encourage people to think backing MP is free money?

As you say, If you put £300 on at 1/3 you win a £100 not bad, but you are encouraged to put on a bigger stake for a reasonable return, giving that the odds are almost a sure thing.
Id rather put £5 on Mourinho at 16/1, bit like the grand national haha

There is also the issue that the market for any event is decided on by the bookies for their own reasons.

I wont bore you with the overround but you can have a read of this if you so desire -

<a class="postlink" href="http://betting.football-data.co.uk/overround.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://betting.football-data.co.uk/overround.php</a>

And calculate on any event here

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.sportsbettingindex.com/odds-calculator.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.sportsbettingindex.com/odds-calculator.html</a>

You can then see what 'profit' margin a bookie is running at on a market.

But be wary of shifts in odds as it can be very fake.

If, for example a punter has a 10 horse accumulator win 9 having won and the final race still to be decided a bookie is well within his rights to play dirty.

A punter who has placed those 10 horses in the AM may have expected odds of 3/1 for the first 9 and lumped on a 20/1 in race 10 for the hell of it.

But when the outsider in race ten goes off its price is a EVS even though it stands no chance of winning because a bookie has limited his exposure by placing bets on the 20/1 shot himself.

It can sometimes take very little money to bring a price down too, perhaps just a few hundred quid.

Thanks very interesting reading, but I will have to read 2 or 3 times for it to sink in.