I know nothing but does wet or icy conditions get factored in?‘he gets in the right positions, hence the chances as represented by the xG numbers - it just isn’t breaking right for him yet’ would be the (wrong) argument that people make in that case. As you say, that’s a misrepresentation of what xG actually is, but because xG is more subjective than actual goals, it leaves room for this subterfuge motivated by wishful thinking.