Middle East Conflict

BlueAnorak said:
So Assad kills between 500,000 and 1,000,000 Syrians and that OK.
But about 1/10rh of the lower threshold are killed by Israel (according to Hamas I may add) after Hamas attacked Israel and that's Genocide?
Wow!
Israel has to live by different rules apparantly.
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Prestwich_Blue said:
About quarter of a million Kurds have been murdered in their quest for a homeland. The situation in the Sudan civil war is even more catastrophic than the situation in Gaza. Assad should be facing arrest under an ICC warrant but nothing on that front either, while Netanyahu is.

That doesn't make what Israel is doing right, or in any way excuse it, but no one ever talks about either of these, or accuses the Iraqis/Turks of war crimes.
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Previously in the thread:
Vic said:
That would be the Syria that's left of Syria? What "guarantee" could Assad give Israel? I'm against permanent occupation of territory captured in war (at the heart of the problem) but the best anyone could hope for re the Golan Heights would be a demilitarised zone. It's not exactly the immediate problem. (22 October 2023)
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Vic said:
[Re IHRA antisemitim examples]

Take "Denying the Jewish people their right to self-determination, e.g., by claiming that the existence of a State of Israel is a racist endeavor." I may misunderstand the intent behind that, but how is the concept of a "Jewish state" not an endeavour based on race? (That's without the current situation where all Israelis are equal but some are more equal than others.) But is that different from Kurds wanting a Kurdish state? Or "England for the English"? Maybe not, but Israel was of course based on endeavouring to create a Jewish state. (16 December 2023)
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Vic said:
It's taken 12 years to get to 500k dead in Syria (mostly combatants and not all from Assad bombs). It's taken the Israelis 12 weeks to kill as many civilians in Gaza as in the first year of the Syrian civil war. I'm reluctant to see how many children Israel can kill before one can scream. (9 January 2024)
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gordondaviesmoustache said:
Wonder if matters internally in Iran will now take on some sort of momentum. Now has to be the best time, surely.
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Be interesting if Trump fancies it when he gets in.

Do deals with Xi over Taiwan and Putin in Ukraine so they don't get in the way.

There's a huge geopolitical end game taking place at the moment. BRICS V the dollar?
 
TinFoilHat said:
One that won't benefit Ukraine I'd wager.

Everything is so unpredictable anything can happen.
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Depends what your starting point for benefit is. I think what’s left of Ukraine can really prosper. Especially if Europe keeps the economic pressure up on Russia. No good reason it shouldn’t.

Agree about the unpredictability but Russia isn’t holding anywhere near as many cards as it was when Trump said the invasion was very clever (or some such words). Even Trump will now appreciate it was anything but.

That is likely to greatly inform his negotiating MO.

Ultimately depends how compromised he actually is, I guess.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Wonder if matters internally in Iran will now take on some sort of momentum. Now has to be the best time, surely.
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It's possible. At heart, Iran is quite 'civilised'. If the hardline Islamists were overcome in Iran then Hamas and Hezbollah would lack funding and support. This would give a 'real' leader the chance to emerge in Palestine who could gain worldwide respect and Israeli trust. Peace and a realistic compromise may then finally emerge (but somehow I doubt it).
 
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Palerider said:
It's possible. At heart, Iran is quite 'civilised'. If the hardline Islamists were overcome in Iran then Hamas and Hezbollah would lack funding and support. This would give a 'real' leader the chance to emerge in Palestine who could gain worldwide respect and Israeli trust. Peace and a realistic compromise may then finally emerge (but somehow I doubt it).
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Gain Israeli trust

Deary fuckin me.
 
St.Pauli support said:
Well that's impossible for me to think like a terrorist who is born into a life that has built his brain structure to the state that it is like now.

I guess they didn't kill 1,000+ civilians to come to a constructive solution with Israel. They would be finding far more support in all western countries if they would simply ask why people around the world are supposed to live free and in dignity, but not in Gaza. We would have no answer.
We have seen huge support on western streets, but Hamas played their cards extremely poorly.

Hatred and revenge was their plan instead and yes I do understand where it's coming from but still it's a shite plan (of mainly young uneducated brainwashed testosterone driven rebels with too many weapons, as a generalizing remark).

Would they play more chess they had been able to think 3 or 5 moves ahead.
They also shouldn't listen to ruzzia or Iran who only want to destabilize any region where they want to gain more influence. Gladly that went down the drain.

But there's not much hope. The conflict is too old, the wounds too deep, too many different radical religious parties involved. In a geopolitical hot spot.
Let's hope Syria can go a more moderate route, with so many different interests and parties in the mix. Radicals will already be planning to thwart that route. Like always.
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Good post.
Militarily I think the Hamas attack of October 7th defies logic and anyone who supported it is no friend of the Palestinian people and more attached to a total Palestinian victory (which realistically looks impossible and just leads to more Palestinian death, suffering and loss of land. Brain dead tactics).
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Depends what your starting point for benefit is. I think what’s left of Ukraine can really prosper. Especially if Europe keeps the economic pressure up on Russia. No good reason it shouldn’t.

Agree about the unpredictability but Russia isn’t holding anywhere near as many cards as it was when Trump said the invasion was very clever (or some such words). Even Trump will now appreciate it was anything but.

That is likely to greatly inform his negotiating MO.

Ultimately depends how compromised he actually is, I guess.
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It feels like Russia is now exiting its interests elsewhere. We've also seen Zelensky say yesterday that he is open to talks and ending the war. Iran has totally lost its influence in the middle east and Israel has seemingly defeated everybody and is overextending beyond itself.

Clearly, whatever they sought to achieve, the US and Europe have won. I can't help but feel that with the incoming Trump there are now deals to be done.
 
halfcenturyup said:
I don't blame them.

Not sure I will approve of what they do next, but I can't really criticise them for that move, tbh. Who knows what they will have living next to them?
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Where does it end though? Someone in Syria resists and they end up bombing Damascus?
 
Vic said:
Where does it end though? Someone in Syria resists and they end up bombing Damascus?
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That's why I said I am not sure I will approve of what they do next, but as a defensive measure a large buffer zone makes sense to me. Somehow I doubt that will be the end of it, though.
 
inbetween said:
It feels like Russia is now exiting its interests elsewhere. We've also seen Zelensky say yesterday that he is open to talks and ending the war. Iran has totally lost its influence in the middle east and Israel has seemingly defeated everybody and is overextending beyond itself.

Clearly, whatever they sought to achieve, the US and Europe have won. I can't help but feel that with the incoming Trump there are now deals to be done.
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I hope it’s the beginning of the end of Putin, he’s losing influence in the Middle East by the look of it due to the Ukrainian war, maybe other rebels say in Africa might see this as an opportunity against anyone Russia backs, the port in Syria used to supply Wagner troops in Africa that’s now gone. I have a feeling Iran may get interesting about 90% don’t support the regime, if they see an opportunity due to Russia been weak and support for Iran dwindling you never know.
 
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