BlueMoonAcrossThePond
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 27 Oct 2020
- Messages
- 5,956
- Team supported
- Manchester City
Swing and a miss... strike one! :-)Danny 'Holiday' Inn-gs.
Last edited:
Swing and a miss... strike one! :-)Danny 'Holiday' Inn-gs.
It's a good way to assess a tool but it's incomplete.No stat is perfect, but surely the best available to judge the finishing ability of strikers is xG. It takes into account the difficulty of each shot, which pure shots v goals doesn't. Using all the data available at Understat.com (only league games since about 2014) Kane is streets ahead of Sterling, Ronaldo, and even Aguero.
Kane: xG = 139, Goals = 163, 17% higher than average for the same difficulty of shots
Sterling: xG = 92, Goals = 86, 7% lower than average
Ronaldo: xG = 210, Goals = 215, 2% higher than average
Aguero: xG = 126, Goals = 132, 5% higher than average
Torres: xG = 13.7, Goals = 15, 10% higher than average - very small sample size, so this one should be taken with a pinch of salt
It's an oddity that we seem to miss a lot of penalties during matches, but we've actually won 7 penalty shoot outs in a row. Whereas Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 5 (including one against us).Can't take out penalties - it's a big Achilles heel from us and has cost us in some very big games. if CL Final had gone to pens, I would have put us as a significant underdog.
Yes it's true - but we havent had many that matter that much recently (mostly Carabou early rounds). Chelsea in Carabou Final was the last one of significance I think.It's an oddity that we seem to miss a lot of penalties during matches, but we've actually won 7 penalty shoot outs in a row. Whereas Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 5 (including one against us).
We just save it for when it really matters I guess..
It could be a team vs individual mentality thing, as weird as that sounds.It's an oddity that we seem to miss a lot of penalties during matches, but we've actually won 7 penalty shoot outs in a row. Whereas Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 5 (including one against us).
We just save it for when it really matters I guess..
They dont take them cos they are crap at them. If everyone who took penalties scored them, then you could exclude them. That's clearly not the case for us. Are we going to ignore Ederson's huge punts up field that create attacks cos others don't do it?You can if you are comparing a player who doesn't take them with one who does.
Even with their recent woes City have been scoring above 6 out of 10 penalties. Ronaldo and Kane score just over 8 out of 10, but then Gundogan and De Bruyne score 8 out of 10. (As an aside Ronaldo is not as good as Bruno, so if he insists on taking them, that's a bonus for City!)
So, you're comparing a chance with a scoring ratio of between 0.6 and 0.8 with their non-penalty scoring ratios of 0.11 (Ronaldo) and 0.21 (Sterling).
Clearly anyone taking penalties is going to push up their ratios. Having an extra good penalty taker would be useful, but if we leave it to Gundogan and De Bruyne, then any difference is likely to be minimal.
Final vs LiverpoolYes it's true - but we havent had many that matter that much recently (mostly Carabou early rounds). Chelsea in Carabou Final was the last one of significance I think.