It WILL happen. Noel's all about the money and the finances involved will be huge, he just wants to do his own thing before getting the old band back together. He's seen how well commercially Liam is doing and knows Oasis would smash it, his public stance has been noticeably less hostile to Liam recently. Liam knows this and is playing up to it on twitter, which ironically is probably delaying the reunion as Noel will want to save face before he does eventually agree to it.
Unlike the Smiths and other bands Liam and Noel are brothers, which is a different dynamic to two people who have had a fall out. I think its probably still a couple of years (and a lot of public game playing) away from happening but it will and I'll be one of those people pulling out all the stops to get tickets despite knowing they're only doing it for the money and unsure if its even a good idea!
