Our attack - what's off?

sky_blue said:
These are the xG maps for City and Liverpool's most recent match. I've seen a lot of people say that we create high volume of low quality chances so this is for them. We created 3 very high quality chances against West Brom.

1. Gundo - 0.59 xG
2. Kevin - 0.47 xG
3. Sterling - 0.62 xG

For reference, the highest score is assigned to penalty in the xG model, but even that is 0.76 (or in other words, on an average 76% of penalties result in a goal). So from that you can gauge that 0.62 xG is not a half chance, but as big a chance you will get from open play. As we all know, we only scored one and missed the other two. I'm not even counting half chances like Foden's or Cancelo's shot.

View attachment 6815

Liverpool created 3 high quality chances against Spurs.
1. Salah - 0.49 xG
2. Mane - 0.64 xG
3. Firmino - 0.45 xG

Salah and Firmino finished their chances while Mane missed his (similar to Sterling, he has been very poor this season). Liverpool won 2-1.

View attachment 6816

Okay one more bonus xG map for the Manchester derby.

EpD4o8eXUAA2uFY


As you can see, the xG for the top 3 chances for United were -
1. Greenwood - 0.3 xG
2. Fernandes - 0.27 xG
3. Lindelof - 0.19 xG

Whereas the xG for the 3 chances for City were -
1. Mahrez - 0.37 xG
2. Kevin - 0.36 xG
3. Jesus - 0.34 xG

Needless to say we had better chances, but squandered all of them.
Click to expand...

Absolutely we aren't clinical like we used to be. Just as we aren't fast and fluid. You don't need stats to know that we aren't at the races like we once were.
 
domalino said:
www.thetimes.co.uk

Pep Guardiola eyes move for Erling Haaland to bolster attack

Manchester City are poised to enter the race for Erling Haaland, the prolific Borussia Dortmund striker.Fresh from signing a new two-year contract, Pep Guardiol
www.thetimes.co.uk www.thetimes.co.uk

www.dailymail.co.uk

Manchester United and Manchester City both poised for Erling Haaland

Haaland is widely recognised as Europe's standout young finisher having plundered 33 goals in 26 starts since the Bundesliga side signed him last January.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
Click to expand...
A front three of Messi, Haaland and Sterling/Jesus wins everything.

Edit: Possible too. Aguero one year rolling extensions to keep Messi sweet, Torres rotating on both wings, Bernardo and Foden allowed to play in midfield once we've brought in Zakaria and Mahrez sold while we can still get something for him.
 
sky_blue said:
These are the xG maps for City and Liverpool's most recent match. I've seen a lot of people say that we create high volume of low quality chances so this is for them. We created 3 very high quality chances against West Brom.

1. Gundo - 0.59 xG
2. Kevin - 0.47 xG
3. Sterling - 0.62 xG

For reference, the highest score is assigned to penalty in the xG model, but even that is 0.76 (or in other words, on an average 76% of penalties result in a goal). So from that you can gauge that 0.62 xG is not a half chance, but as big a chance you will get from open play. As we all know, we only scored one and missed the other two. I'm not even counting half chances like Foden's or Cancelo's shot.

View attachment 6815

Liverpool created 3 high quality chances against Spurs.
1. Salah - 0.49 xG
2. Mane - 0.64 xG
3. Firmino - 0.45 xG

Salah and Firmino finished their chances while Mane missed his (similar to Sterling, he has been very poor this season). Liverpool won 2-1.

View attachment 6816

Okay one more bonus xG map for the Manchester derby.

EpD4o8eXUAA2uFY


As you can see, the xG for the top 3 chances for United were -
1. Greenwood - 0.3 xG
2. Fernandes - 0.27 xG
3. Lindelof - 0.19 xG

Whereas the xG for the 3 chances for City were -
1. Mahrez - 0.37 xG
2. Kevin - 0.36 xG
3. Jesus - 0.34 xG

Needless to say we had better chances, but squandered all of them.
Click to expand...

You are misreading the tables. The xG assigned to each player is the aggregate of their total shots. For example, looking at the WBA game, KDB's xG is 0.47 but he had 4 shots in the game.

FYI (if not already aware) different xG models have different tallies. You've got 2.6-0.34 which compares reasonably well with Infogol 2.82-0.43, Understat 2.59-0.21 or statsbomb 1.9-0.30. Bottom line is with that difference we should have won the game comfortably.

The Liverpool game is way out compared to other models. You've got it as 1.71-1.03 in favour of Liverpool compared to Infogol 1.41-1.09, Understat 1.52-1.22 and Statsbomb 1.31-1.1 all in favour of Spurs. As per above, the high quality chances for Liverpool aren't anything like the % you mentioned. In fact according to OPTA, Liverpool had 0 Big Chances and Spurs had 4.
 
Pablo ZZZ Peroni said:
You are misreading the tables. The xG assigned to each player is the aggregate of their total shots. For example, looking at the WBA game, KDB's xG is 0.47 but he had 4 shots in the game.

FYI (if not already aware) different xG models have different tallies. You've got 2.6-0.34 which compares reasonably well with Infogol 2.82-0.43, Understat 2.59-0.21 or statsbomb 1.9-0.30. Bottom line is with that difference we should have won the game comfortably.

The Liverpool game is way out compared to other models. You've got it as 1.71-1.03 in favour of Liverpool compared to Infogol 1.41-1.09, Understat 1.52-1.22 and Statsbomb 1.31-1.1 all in favour of Spurs. As per above, the high quality chances for Liverpool aren't anything like the % you mentioned. In fact according to OPTA, Liverpool had 0 Big Chances and Spurs had 4.
Click to expand...
Nice catch. Are you aware of any site that provides xG of each individual shot, i.e. not a cumulative or average number?
 
The image below is from the same site. It is sorted on the cumulative xG column for the last 2 months which coincides with the games from directly after the first international break. So it misses out the first batchof games with all the crazy results that distort the numbers. For City it also coincides with Pep taking back control...

We have created the best opportunities and restricted opponents to the fewest chances. Theoretically we are the best team. Who would have thought eh?

Whilst defensively we have been brilliant the big problem is obviously goals scored. The little red +4.86 in the xG column shows we are effectively 5 goals light of where we should be.

1608244858176.jpeg
 
Pubteam Lomas said:
People go on about our wastefulness in front of goal as though it's a new thing.
Even at the peak of our powers we were profligate. It's just more obvious now as we don't create as many chances.
Click to expand...

About 15% of all shots are deemed to be "Big Chances". City have created the most Big Chances for each of the last 4 seasons. In 17/18 we created 123 big chances in the league which was miles higher than anyone else. Our conversion rate was very good at about 50% (average that season was 42%) but missing 60 big chances is shit loads and why we look profligate. Simply we miss more than anyone else.

This year it has been a disaster. In the last 9 games in the league since we went full on safety first we've still managed to create 25 high quality big chances. More than any other team in the league for the same period and at an average of 2.77 per game which is very good. Surprisingly not too far off 17/18 levels. The problem is we've only scored 6 of them - a conversion rate of just 24%. That is simply awful.
 
We miss anything between 75-90% of our chances depending on which figures you choose to believe , our final ball / cross has been poor and our corner taking diabolical , the only reason we are mid-table is because our defence has improved or we would be down the table with Arsenal.
We have really well rated / quality players missing very easy chances in every single game , but we are getting what we deserve ,Aguero will improve the situation 100% if we can keep him fit , his goal against Marseille typified what we have been missing.
A lot of blame has been aimed at Pep , but he isnt on the field missing sitters from 6 yards in every game we play , its the players
 
sky_blue said:
These are the xG maps for City and Liverpool's most recent match. I've seen a lot of people say that we create high volume of low quality chances so this is for them. We created 3 very high quality chances against West Brom.

1. Gundo - 0.59 xG
2. Kevin - 0.47 xG
3. Sterling - 0.62 xG

For reference, the highest score is assigned to penalty in the xG model, but even that is 0.76 (or in other words, on an average 76% of penalties result in a goal). So from that you can gauge that 0.62 xG is not a half chance, but as big a chance you will get from open play. As we all know, we only scored one and missed the other two. I'm not even counting half chances like Foden's or Cancelo's shot.

View attachment 6815

Liverpool created 3 high quality chances against Spurs.
1. Salah - 0.49 xG
2. Mane - 0.64 xG
3. Firmino - 0.45 xG

Salah and Firmino finished their chances while Mane missed his (similar to Sterling, he has been very poor this season). Liverpool won 2-1.

View attachment 6816

Okay one more bonus xG map for the Manchester derby.

EpD4o8eXUAA2uFY


As you can see, the xG for the top 3 chances for United were -
1. Greenwood - 0.3 xG
2. Fernandes - 0.27 xG
3. Lindelof - 0.19 xG

Whereas the xG for the 3 chances for City were -
1. Mahrez - 0.37 xG
2. Kevin - 0.36 xG
3. Jesus - 0.34 xG

Needless to say we had better chances, but squandered all of them.
Click to expand...

The finishing really is the biggest issue, yes we aren't as entertaining as previous years but we have the best defense in the league and if we had scored 4/5 of the absolute sitters we have had this season we would be top of the table.

Lord knows what the defence is thinking after letting in 1 own goal in 7 league games and being let down week after week by those in front!
 
Just my own thought on how we address our decline in standards.

This may annoy the Algerian support but I do think we should sell Mahrez in the summer.

The way I look at it, is nothing to do with how good he is, it's how well he fits the team and the example he sets. I realise he is a talented player, capable of scoring worldies and his first touch is often sublime but to me it's like having a past his prime Toure. He still reminds us of what he can do at certain points of a game but the rest of the time, what example is he setting?

I say this because I'm starting to think we are developing a mentality problem and that's why we've dropped off so much in the past season and a quarter. If it is the case, it needs addressing fast. It's not just him, Gundogan for me should follow him, to make way for Houssem Aouar(Rodri stays). Stones seems to have turned a corner thankfully and I'm undecided on Mendy(what would we even get for him until he does turn a corner?).

For a system like this to work, the mentality of the players has to be right all over the pitch, we need leaders in defence(which we have now in Dias IMO), Midfield(Fernandinho and KDB) and attack and the rest of the players need to be willing raise their own game in response to those around them.

Which brings me to the attack, without Aguero and with Sterling off form(he's not a pace setter IMO), who are our attackers looking to? Jesus stays because he has exactly the right mindset. He'll run his socks off and do any job without complaint and he is talented but he's not yet at the level(or maturity) where he's able to be our talisman. So we need a CF at a minimum(hopefully Haaland, ticks all the right boxes, talent and mentality) but we also look like we need a winger too. Mahrez should still fetch at least what we paid for him because he'll do well for any team with a system that suits him. Maybe even Leicester will take him back.

As for who we bring in to replace him I'm not sure, if we are bringing in a CF then we might need our scouts to earn their bread on that. Torres looks like he could go on to be that player but he is only young and it could take a season or more before he can be relied upon to that extent. I still think we should bring in another winger if Mahrez is moved on.
 
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