City know there is no evidence, that's why they are so uber confident these charges will fail. If in extremis, for the want of argument, such known evidence did exist (it should have been destroyed years ago) and City had been asked to provide it, CIty would not have handed it over which can only ever result in a "none-co-operation" charge which has no sporting sanction, only a financial penalty as I understand it.
This independent commission will be asked to find these charges of rule breaches proven against City based on the same evidence that was put before the CAS justices. For that to happen, in the face of no additional evidence for the PL, would seem very, very, unlikely. Such a perverse finding will almost certainly result in a substantial appeal by City which would also put a huge spotlight on the integrity of the ruling commission members, something on which their very professional existence relies on heavily. I cannot see how that can happen.
Is it conceivable the PL have conducted such a 4 year witch hunt investigation based on no other evidence than those emails, knowing the results at CAS? That they have issued 115 (130) charges against City on such a basis, knowing the likely outcome? As most have surmised should the above come to pass, Masters and his team are finished. The American redshirts will hang him out to dry.