My view is that the Premier League would not have charged City unless it genuinely believed it could win. That means one of two things.
Either the Premier League has stronger evidence than UEFA ever had and believes it can actually prove disguised equity funding, that the sponsorship agreements were not genuine, that City knowingly submitted false information, and so on.
Or the Premier League has largely the same evidence as UEFA, but has chosen a different legal strategy to maximise its chances of success — namely, by framing the charges in a less aggressive way. That avoids unnecessarily raising the evidential threshold and reduces the risk that the Aabar / Etisalat issues (which are clearly the Achilles’ heel) are found to be time-barred.
I also think — unlike many others — that the Premier League and a majority of its clubs do not want City to be punished too severely. A draconian sanction would not only be catastrophic for the club, but could also damage the value of the new TV rights deals that are now entering the negotiation phase.
Against that background, it seems entirely reasonable that the Premier League would choose to hit City with a smaller stick — one that gives it the best chance of winning, while still allowing it to control the wider consequences.