Political relations between UK-EU

[hilts]

4 years is a long time, I pretty sure Labour policy will be closer to being closer to S.M than anything else, Liberal not sure, but if they have any sense rejoining will be put on the back burner and they'd see single market as a first step. I'm sure by then though the election will be foought on other issues and would be very surprised to see the tories winning a majority.
The big unknown though is the SNP. They will be the 3 rd party, and would be the obvious partners for Labour to form a government. We know they will have a rejoin policy, question is would they support Labour in government, and in joining N.Ireland with the single market deal, or would they insist on only voting to rejoin.

Those to the left of the Tories ie much pretty much everyone are too fragmented, SNP and Labour are not getting into bed with each other, Labour is full of infighting and can’t even decide what party they are anymore. The Lib Dem’s are openly big on remain but it didn’t get them much traction in last time. Austerity Brexit and being generally inept hasn’t done the Tories much harm so far. Will the virus do for them? I doubt it.

I’m a green voter and even though I think the enviroment is the biggest current issue they are as relevant in elections as Dems and UKIP.

It’s all a tad depressing to be honest mate.

 

[blueparrot]

I’m a green voter and even though I think the enviroment is the biggest current issue they are as relevant in elections as Dems and UKIP.

Except in Scotland, where the Greens are partners in government. As for the tories in the next election, don't think it will be the virus directly that does for them, it will be the economy and who they make pay for the recovery from the virus, and who they don't reward for getting us through it.

 

[hilts]

Except in Scotland, where the Greens are partners in government. As for the tories in the next election, don't think it will be the virus directly that does for them, it will be the economy and who they make pay for the recovery from the virus, and who they don't reward for getting us through it.

Who did they make pay for austerity? I accept the Scotland point but it isn’t large enough to do for the Tories and you have to factor in Labour used to be pretty successful in Scotland. Throw in independence and I can’t see where alliances can be made.

There are a lot of commonalities with Labour SNP Dems greens plaid etc.... but also some important individual sticking points that are hard to overcome. It’s what I meant when I said those to the left of the Tories can’t get their act together.

 

[mcfc1632]

Who did they make pay for austerity? I accept the Scotland point but it isn’t large enough to do for the Tories and you have to factor in Labour used to be pretty successful in Scotland. Throw in independence and I can’t see where alliances can be made.

There are a lot of commonalities with Labour SNP Dems greens plaid etc.... but also some important individual sticking points that are hard to overcome. It’s what I meant when I said those to the left of the Tories can’t get their act together.

I don't wish to divert the thread - but I commented in the Starmer thread how he is playing a strategy of wait until end 2023 to see what is the status of issues that are bothering the electorate.

So he will decide then if Labour policy is to push for closer alignment with the EU - it could be a daft thing to do if the frets of some people in the here and now have not manifested into that being a vote winner - he will not go near any such policy if that is not the case.

And - given the deal that has been struck - I doubt that SM membership will be a big ticket item - and there is a risk that it could just be seen as a rejoin strategy and a turn off for the majority - so Starmer will not touch it.

I just wonder that if he gets enough seats with his 'middle of the road' strategy - could it pave the way for a alliance with the SNP - on the promise of an Indyref2? Would seem strange as for the long term Labour need Scotland in the UK an to win seats there - but maybe......

Anyway - stuff for another thread

Could there be an outcome

 

[hilts]

I don't wish to divert the thread - but I commented in the Starmer thread how he is playing a strategy of wait until end 2023 to see what is the status of issues that are bothering the electorate.

So he will decide then if Labour policy is to push for closer alignment with the EU - it could be a daft thing to do if the frets of some people in the here and now have not manifested into that being a vote winner - he will not go near any such policy if that is not the case.

And - given the deal that has been struck - I doubt that SM membership will be a big ticket item - and there is a risk that it could just be seen as a rejoin strategy and a turn off for the majority - so Starmer will not touch it.

I just wonder that if he gets enough seats with his 'middle of the road' strategy - could it pave the way for a alliance with the SNP - on the promise of an Indyref2? Would seem strange as for the long term Labour need Scotland in the UK an to win seats there - but maybe......

Anyway - stuff for another thread

Could there be an outcome

SNP can’t afford for Labour to be successful in any way, the Tory monopoly is a gold mine for them. But probably best in the Starmer thread.

 

[blueparrot]

Who did they make pay for austerity? I accept the Scotland point but it isn’t large enough to do for the Tories and you have to factor in Labour used to be pretty successful in Scotland. Throw in independence and I can’t see where alliances can be made.

There are a lot of commonalities with Labour SNP Dems greens plaid etc.... but also some important individual sticking points that are hard to overcome. It’s what I meant when I said those to the left of the Tories can’t get their act together.

Labour and Scotland is interesting, I don’t see how Labour can hope to win a majority without Scottish Mps. While there is no prospect in the near future of them winning any Scottish seats, Scottish independence would be disastrous for Labour with those seats lost for ever.
Either way I don’t see a majority Labour UK government anytime soon,so they will have to get into bed with somebody, who and where they go from here I don’t know but they need to come up with a plan now, rather than wait to see the maths after an election and trying to cobble deals together. Which to get back on topic should be including a policy on future eu relationship.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Those to the left of the Tories ie much pretty much everyone are too fragmented, SNP and Labour are not getting into bed with each other, Labour is full of infighting and can’t even decide what party they are anymore. The Lib Dem’s are openly big on remain but it didn’t get them much traction in last time. Austerity Brexit and being generally inept hasn’t done the Tories much harm so far. Will the virus do for them? I doubt it.

I’m a green voter and even though I think the enviroment is the biggest current issue they are as relevant in elections as Dems and UKIP.

It’s all a tad depressing to be honest mate.

I too am a Green voter these days. It’s nice that they actually get in, in the local elections, where I live. They are proactive, interested in what local residents have to say (they’re the only ones who’ve knocked on my door since I moved round here), and they get shit done.

 

[BobKowalski]

Sigh.. ok if you won’t get there yourself I’ll get there for you...

If freedom of movement was such a great idea then the EU nations would have extended it to elsewhere too, not just Europe.

The fact is, it does obviously cause issues and that’s why they haven’t extended it to elsewhere.

To benefit from freedom of movement within the European Union you need to be a member of that Union which requires a lengthy accession process. Alternatively, a country can subscribe to the Single Market and become a rule taker outside the political decision making process.

Either way means, to some extent, converging your economy with the EU and paying into the EU budget etc.

If a non European country, say Algeria, opted to join and all other member states agreed then they would be put on the path to membership and the benefits including the Single Market and freedom of movement. I mention Algeria as the EU is it’s major trading partner and it would not be a huge step to see nations like this become members.

The EU is a legal construct with rules and regulations that you join or associate with to enjoy the benefits, namely the Single Market. The Single Market is the driver of freedom of movement, one of its four pillars. It‘s a package deal, not an à la carte menu. Something we discovered in the Brexit negotiations, although, seemingly, still little understood after four years of talking about the bleeding thing.

The truly dumb thing is you know this because you stated ‘throwing open all borders overnight would be chaos’ and yes, it probably would be, which is why it starts with neighbouring countries with a high degree of economic and cultural convergence and expands slowly outwards.

Unfortunately this natural evolution then leads to emotional nonsense about FoM being ‘racist‘, at which point I lose the will to live over the sheer fucking stupidity of people.

 

[west didsblue]

If there isn’t a significant enough economic hit, felt in the majority of people’s back pockets, like there isn’t looking likely to be, this would be absolute suicide for Starmer to go down this route.

If he focuses on maintaining our distance with the EU, keeps at least very similar immigration controls as the Tories have put into place, but campaigns for economic improvements for many, whilst ignoring the social justice stuff, he’ll walk it.

His problem is his MPs.

Today is our first working day outside the Single Market and Customs Union. It's a little bit early to say that it looks likely that there isn't going to be a significant economic hit.
At least you gave it 4 days to make the judgment which is 3 and half days longer than the optimistic initial reports from one of the Brexiteers that the lorry queues weren't appearing (on New Years Day morning).
Probably best to make that judgment in 6 months. As someone mentioned it's more like a balloon being slowly let down. We won't notice it day to day but after a while people will start to realise their diminished circumstances. On the other hand hopefully I'm wrong and it will be a roaring success and we will "prosper mightily".

 

[blueparrot]

Today is our first working day outside the Single Market and Customs Union. It's a little bit early to say that it looks likely that there isn't going to be a significant economic hit.
At least you gave it 4 days to make the judgment which is 3 and half days longer than the optimistic initial reports from one of the Brexiteers that the lorry queues weren't appearing (on New Years Day morning).
Probably best to make that judgment in 6 months. As someone mentioned it's more like a balloon being slowly let down. We won't notice it day to day but after a while people will start to realise their diminished circumstances. On the other hand hopefully I'm wrong and it will be a roaring success and we will "prosper mightily".

I know most of my suppliers have built up stock to last a few months, maybe longer with covid restrictions still in place but they have also warned us of expected price increases down the line. So yes any economic impact will be a good few months away for our customers.