Political relations between UK-EU

[Vic]

Maybe some clairvoyants then?
Interesting 2017 article though showing how misleading statistics are used by idiots to back up bollox ideas.

If the bit about clairvoyants was meant to suggest it wasn't in anyone's minds as a Brexit issue (it wasn't clair) then Farage was banging on in 2015 about imagined immigrant no-go areas in European cities.

 

[BobKowalski]

Today is our first working day outside the Single Market and Customs Union. It's a little bit early to say that it looks likely that there isn't going to be a significant economic hit.
At least you gave it 4 days to make the judgment which is 3 and half days longer than the optimistic initial reports from one of the Brexiteers that the lorry queues weren't appearing (on New Years Day morning).
Probably best to make that judgment in 6 months. As someone mentioned it's more like a balloon being slowly let down. We won't notice it day to day but after a while people will start to realise their diminished circumstances. On the other hand hopefully I'm wrong and it will be a roaring success and we will "prosper mightily".

The race is now for businesses to adapt to the new trading arrangements, the copious form filling and in some cases new charges being levied. There is a degree of a ’de facto’ transition period in operation, but lorries are being turned away for not having the right paperwork.

What will be interesting is traffic volumes, median freight flow between GB and EU and GB and NI for 2021, as that should give a rough indication of effect on trade.

 

[Ban-jani]

Today is our first working day outside the Single Market and Customs Union. It's a little bit early to say that it looks likely that there isn't going to be a significant economic hit.
At least you gave it 4 days to make the judgment which is 3 and half days longer than the optimistic initial reports from one of the Brexiteers that the lorry queues weren't appearing (on New Years Day morning).
Probably best to make that judgment in 6 months. As someone mentioned it's more like a balloon being slowly let down. We won't notice it day to day but after a while people will start to realise their diminished circumstances. On the other hand hopefully I'm wrong and it will be a roaring success and we will "prosper mightily".

I don’t think either of those things will happen.

I don’t think there’s been significant enough disruption, I know it’s very early but it’s not being reported as going to happen, to affect the vast majority on a day to day basis.

Things will just carry on for most people and whilst it won’t be a big success, it’s not going to make a dent to a lot of people.

 

[west didsblue]

I don’t think either of those things will happen.

I don’t think there’s been significant enough disruption, I know it’s very early but it’s not being reported as going to happen, to affect the vast majority on a day to day basis.

Things will just carry on for most people and whilst it won’t be a big success, it’s not going to make a dent to a lot of people.

That's always been the problem with Brexit. If enough people aren't affected too badly it really doesn't matter if it badly affects a smaller number and it limits opportunities for the younger generation. As long as more than 50% of the population don't notice too many problems then it's job done for the twats that brought us this shit.

 

[inbetween]

The race is now for businesses to adapt to the new trading arrangements, the copious form filling and in some cases new charges being levied. There is a degree of a ’de facto’ transition period in operation, but lorries are being turned away for not having the right paperwork.

What will be interesting is traffic volumes, median freight flow between GB and EU and GB and NI for 2021, as that should give a rough indication of effect on trade.

If anyone wants to become an instant millionaire then all you need to do is develop a way of automatically linking export data such as tariff codes with product data.

For example, if you sell a tin of beans then how do you easily get the relevant export information for that tin of beans? If you sell thousands of different products and export solely to the EU then you'll now need to manually determine the export data for every single product before you can export them!

 

[Ban-jani]

To benefit from freedom of movement within the European Union you need to be a member of that Union which requires a lengthy accession process. Alternatively, a country can subscribe to the Single Market and become a rule taker outside the political decision making process.

Either way means, to some extent, converging your economy with the EU and paying into the EU budget etc.

If a non European country, say Algeria, opted to join and all other member states agreed then they would be put on the path to membership and the benefits including the Single Market and freedom of movement. I mention Algeria as the EU is it’s major trading partner and it would not be a huge step to see nations like this become members.

The EU is a legal construct with rules and regulations that you join or associate with to enjoy the benefits, namely the Single Market. The Single Market is the driver of freedom of movement, one of its four pillars. It‘s a package deal, not an à la carte menu. Something we discovered in the Brexit negotiations, although, seemingly, still little understood after four years of talking about the bleeding thing.

The truly dumb thing is you know this because you stated ‘throwing open all borders overnight would be chaos’ and yes, it probably would be, which is why it starts with neighbouring countries with a high degree of economic and cultural convergence and expands slowly outwards.

Unfortunately this natural evolution then leads to emotional nonsense about FoM being ‘racist‘, at which point I lose the will to live over the sheer fucking stupidity of people.

I understand the process of applying to become a member of the EU.

But my point was specifically regarding how the EU behaves to immigration. It behaves as one large state, which allows internal free movement but not external.

In fact, it now behaves no differently to immigration than its neighbouring union, the United Kingdom.

Only difference being, the United Kingdom has been one states for far longer, with a much smaller population and its political and cultural ties are far more closely linked.

The criticism I have with the EU is they’ve tried to implement it as one state, on a too large a scale, with geopolitical issues and economic disparity.

However, the EU completely agrees with me on freedom of movement coming from outside the union. If freedom of movement was such a great idea, they would have extended it to somewhere else, outside of the union, whereas in reality they’ve seen the issues it has caused internally on such a large scale and know it’s a bad policy to extend it elsewhere.

 

[Ban-jani]

That's always been the problem with Brexit. If enough people aren't affected too badly it really doesn't matter if it badly affects a smaller number and it limits opportunities for the younger generation. As long as more than 50% of the population don't notice too many problems then it's job done for the twats that brought us this shit.

I knew full well remain voters would be stating how shit it was and leave voters saying how good it is, when in reality it’s a bit “meh”.

 

[BobKowalski]

I don’t think either of those things will happen.

I don’t think there’s been significant enough disruption, I know it’s very early but it’s not being reported as going to happen, to affect the vast majority on a day to day basis.

Things will just carry on for most people and whilst it won’t be a big success, it’s not going to make a dent to a lot of people.

With a deal, that keeps the basics running, there won’t be. In addition Covid has caused far more disruption to everyday life, which we entered under one trading arrangement and will (hopefully) exit under another, how will people know what changes, or price rises are due to what event? The press ain’t going to tell us, nor the Govt.

What will force change is business, businesses will chafe under the extra administrative burden, foreign investment will be wary for the same reason and lack of seamless access to our biggest export market and the prospect of a Govt fighting a culture war over closer relations with the EU and ‘threatening’ to ‘walk away from the deal’ every five years (it‘s an old hit, v popular in Brexit ranks).

Essentially the same pressures that saw us sign the WA and give away NI, and saw us sign a last minute deal without even a headline win on fish. There was no public pressure on the Govt, most people were just sick of Brexit or bored. The pressure was all economic and will remain so.

 

[Ban-jani]

With a deal, that keeps the basics running, there won’t be. In addition Covid has caused far more disruption to everyday life, which we entered under one trading arrangement and will (hopefully) exit under another, how will people know what changes, or price rises are due to what event? The press ain’t going to tell us, nor the Govt.

What will force change is business, businesses will chafe under the extra administrative burden, foreign investment will be wary for the same reason and lack of seamless access to our biggest export market and the prospect of a Govt fighting a culture war over closer relations with the EU and ‘threatening’ to ‘walk away from the deal’ every five years (it‘s an old hit, v popular in Brexit ranks).

Essentially the same pressures that saw us sign the WA and give away NI, and saw us sign a last minute deal without even a headline win on fish. There was no public pressure on the Govt, most people were just sick of Brexit or bored. The pressure was all economic and will remain so.

We’ve not given NI away, they’re temporarily in both customs unions but governed politically by the UK.

 

[Vic]

That's always been the problem with Brexit. If enough people aren't affected too badly it really doesn't matter if it badly affects a smaller number and it limits opportunities for the younger generation. As long as more than 50% of the population don't notice too many problems then it's job done for the twats that brought us this shit.

Well that's the older generation for you, voting for triple lock pensions while cutting youth club funding and generally ruining things for the young. (Not just here - if the American Dream is to end up better off than your parents, that used to be almost a certainty, now it's 50/50.)